中国国际储备适度规模测度1994～2009——基于效用最大化分析框架的数值模拟

发布时间：2018-01-16 01:17

本文关键词：中国国际储备适度规模测度1994～2009——基于效用最大化分析框架的数值模拟　出处：《国际金融研究》2011年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：截至2010年9月,中国以美元计价的储备规模已高达2.64万亿美元。储备高速增长增强了中国国际清偿力和抵御国际金融风险的能力,但也会增加国内通货膨胀压力,弱化货币政策的独立性和有效性,成为影响内外均衡的重要问题。本文基于效用最大化分析框架和平滑代表性经济人消费方法,采用1994~2009年度数据分析中国储备规模的变化和适度规模的确定。我们认为,中国储备适度规模/GDP比率的理想变动区间是25%~30%,从2004年开始,实际储备规模超出适度规模平均为10%左右,基本处在合意变动区间内。但从近期储备存量走势来看,适度储备规模缺口存在加速增大的趋势。在储备管理方面,中央银行在运用国际储备进行资金运营和投资时要注意加强对潜在金融风险的监管。
[Abstract]:As of September 2010, China's dollar-denominated reserves have reached $2.64 tillion. The rapid growth of reserves has enhanced China's ability to pay off international liquidity and withstand international financial risks. However, it will also increase domestic inflationary pressure, weaken the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy, and become an important issue affecting internal and external equilibrium. This paper based on the utility maximization analysis framework and smooth representative economic man consumption method. Using the data of 1994-2009 to analyze the change of China's reserve scale and the determination of its moderate scale, we think that the ideal range of the ratio of reserve to GDP is 25% or 30%. Since 2004, the average size of the actual reserve is about 10%, which is basically within the range of desirable change. However, from the perspective of the recent trend of the stock of reserves. In the aspect of reserve management, the central bank should pay attention to the supervision of potential financial risk when using international reserves for capital operation and investment.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学金融学院;浙江金融职业学院;
【分类号】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 自1994年外汇体制改革以来,中国的国际储备规模一直保持稳步增长态势。1995年储备规模为735.79亿美元,1996年储备规模为1050.29亿美元,突破千亿美元大关,同比增长43%。受1997年亚洲金融危机影响,中国储备同比增幅较低且增幅相对稳定,总规模保持在1500亿美元左右。2002年中国

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