创业板上市公司业绩变脸问题的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 13:30

本文关键词： 业绩变脸公开信息因子分析　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自创业板的设立以来,已经有355家公司在创业板上市。创业板为扶持中小企业,为风险投资建立退出机制,为资助创新国家战略提供融资平台,为对多层次的资本市场体系的建立都做出了巨大的贡献。但由于我国资本市场发展还不够完善,伴随着创业板的诞生,业绩变脸现象便层出不穷。如何帮助投资者有效辨别上市公司是否有业绩变脸的倾向,并规避风险。如何建立有效的监管机制,为监管者在实施监管时提供理论依据,减少并最终杜绝业绩变脸的发生。这些是公众和媒体一直在讨论和呼吁的问题,但学界却鲜有人关注。本文的目的就在于帮助投资者建立一套通过对公开信息的解读来有效辨别上市公司是否有业绩变脸的倾向,并规避风险的方法,并为监管者在实施监管时提供理论依据。本文首先阐述了研究背景和研究意义,然后分别采用多元回归和因子分析的方法,针对创业板自设立以来的355家上市公司的数据,进行了深入系统的研究,实证检验了发行市盈率、发行价格、机构网下累计超额认购倍数和公司年龄等对公司上市当年业绩增长率的影响。本文研究发现：由于承销商和机构投资者具有普通投资者所不能比拟的信息优势和研究优势,它们对上市公司未来盈利能力的预测也是相对准确的,而且是可以通过信号传递出来的。发行价格越高,发行市盈率越高,机构网下累计超额认购倍数越高,就说明承销商和机构投资者对公司的未来盈利能力充满信心。如果再加上公司的年龄相对较小,那样的话上市公司在上市当年出现业绩变脸的可能性就非常小了。反之,如果发行价格比较低,发行市盈率比较低,机构网下累计超额认购倍数也比较低,再加上公司的年龄相对较大,上市公司在上市当年出现业绩变脸的可能性就比较大。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of the gem, 355 companies have been listed on the gem. The gem is to support small and medium-sized enterprises, establish an exit mechanism for venture capital, and provide a financing platform for financing innovative national strategies. Great contribution has been made to the establishment of multi-level capital market system, but the development of capital market in our country is not perfect enough. With the birth of gem, the phenomenon of performance change appears endlessly. How to help investors to effectively identify whether listed companies have the tendency to face performance change and avoid risks. How to establish an effective regulatory mechanism to provide a theoretical basis for regulators in the implementation of regulation. Reduce and ultimately eliminate performance changes. These are issues that the public and the media have been discussing and calling for. The purpose of this paper is to help investors establish a set of methods to effectively identify whether the listed companies have the tendency to face performance changes and to avoid risks through the interpretation of public information. It also provides the theoretical basis for the regulators to implement the supervision. This paper first describes the research background and significance, then uses the method of multiple regression and factor analysis, aiming at the data of 355 listed companies since the establishment of gem. This paper makes a deep and systematic study, and empirically tests the effects of price / earnings ratio, issue price, the cumulative oversubscription ratio under the institutional network and the age of the company on the growth rate of the company's performance in the year of listing. This paper finds that: because underwriters and institutional investors have information advantages and research advantages that ordinary investors can not compare, their prediction of the future profitability of listed companies is relatively accurate. And it can be transmitted through the signal. The higher the issue price, the higher the price-earnings ratio of the issue, the higher the accumulative over-subscription multiple under the institutional network. This means that underwriters and institutional investors are confident about the company's profitability in the future. If combined with the company's relatively young age. On the contrary, if the price of the issue is relatively low, the price-to-earnings ratio of the issue is relatively low, and the accumulative oversubscription ratio under the institutional network is also relatively low. In addition, the company's age is relatively older, listed companies in the year of performance change is more likely.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

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