产业投资结构、流动性效应和中国货币政策

发布时间：2018-01-21 02:14

本文关键词： 产业投资结构利率管制投资酝酿滞后流动性效应数量型货币政策　出处：《经济研究》2011年S2期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文选取中国宏观经济月度数据,采用七变量SVAR模型研究发现:在数量型扩张货币政策冲击下,第一产业内无流动性效应,但第二、三产业有流动性效应;第一产业投资先降后升,第二、三产业投资先升后降,导致短期内产业投资结构的调整。基于利率管制背景,通过引入投资酝酿滞后、投资调整成本和消费习惯等,本文还构建新的粘性价格模型较好地模拟了上述经验事实。分析发现,在利率管制下,数量型扩张货币政策的传导机制主要是利率调节机制还是信贷配给机制,取决于银行贷款利率下限是否严格约束,以及实体经济的盈利能力和信贷需求程度;三次产业在投资酝酿滞后期,特别是在计划时间和建设时间上的差异,是货币供给政策产生不同产业流动性效应的关键;投资调整成本和消费习惯的作用主要是增强产业流动性效应和投资效应的持续性。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the monthly data of China's macro-economy, using the seven-variable SVAR model, and finds that under the impact of quantitative expansion monetary policy, there is no liquidity effect in the primary industry, but the second. The third industry has the fluidity effect; The first industry investment first decreases then rises, and the second, third industry investment rises first and then drops, which leads to the adjustment of industrial investment structure in the short term. Based on the background of interest rate regulation, the introduction of investment lags behind. This paper also constructs a new viscous price model to simulate the above empirical facts. The analysis shows that under the interest rate control. The transmission mechanism of quantitative expansion monetary policy is mainly interest rate adjustment mechanism or credit rationing mechanism, which depends on whether the lower limit of bank loan interest rate is strictly restricted, as well as the profitability of the real economy and the degree of credit demand. The difference of the three industries in the investment brewing period, especially in the planning time and the construction time, is the key to the different industrial liquidity effect of the money supply policy. The effect of investment adjustment cost and consumption habit is mainly to enhance the industrial liquidity effect and the sustainability of investment effect.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学财税学院;上海财经大学经济学院;上海新金融研究院;
【基金】：第三批上海财经大学优秀博士学位论文培育基金;上海财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(项目号:CXJJ-2011-337)
【分类号】：F121.3;F822.0;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言本文从产业结构的视角,研究中国数量型货币政策对三次产业的流动性效应和投资效应。这一问题的提出,主要考虑到以下两个方面:第一,国内外对货币政策的研究基本上都是从宏观经济运行的视角出发,缺乏产业结构层次的细致研究,无法回答货币政策在产业结构层次上的经济效

【相似文献】