资产泡沫与经济增长:基于信用扩张的内生增长模型

发布时间：2018-01-22 12:21

本文关键词： 资产泡沫经济增长信用扩张增长共容　出处：《金融评论》2014年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文将信贷因素引入戴蒙德经济的内生增长模型,构建了资产泡沫与经济增长的一般性分析框架。信用经济的存在使基于AK模型的内生增长分析框架的结论不再适用,泡沫对实体经济部门投资存在挤出效应,但信贷约束放松弥补了实体经济投资规模的下降,从而使技术进步的作用出现不确定性。资产泡沫与经济增长的共容需满足以下条件:经济增长率高于资产价格上涨速度;技术进步和制度变迁对经济增长主导性作用的持续存在;信贷资金分配使泡沫的投资挤出效应小于信贷约束放松产生的积极效应。
[Abstract]:This paper introduces credit factors into Diamond's endogenous growth model. The existence of credit economy makes the conclusion of endogenous growth analysis based on AK model no longer applicable, and the bubble has crowding out effect on real economic sector investment. But the loosening of credit constraints makes up for the decline in the size of investment in the real economy. Thus, the role of technological progress is uncertain. The common accommodation of asset bubble and economic growth needs to meet the following conditions: the economic growth rate is higher than the rate of asset price rise; Technological progress and institutional change continue to play a dominant role in economic growth; The investment extrusion effect of the bubble is smaller than the positive effect caused by the loosening of the credit constraint due to the allocation of credit funds.
【作者单位】：中信银行总行办公室;
【分类号】：F831.2;F113
【正文快照】： 资产泡沫生成、膨胀和破灭的全过程往往与所处的经济周期相一致(Eichengreen and Mitch-ener,2003;Malkiel,2010)o“通常来讲,这些泡沫难以预知,并对宏观经济产生持续影响。随着泡沫膨胀’消费、投资和生产力的增长率都趋于上升;而随着泡沫破裂,这些因素趋于下降或增长停滞”?

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