香港离岸人民币对境内货币政策的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 13:25

本文关键词： 香港离岸人民币货币政策货币供给量利率汇率　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：离岸金融市场,是指所使用货币既不受市场所在国政府法令管制,又不受发行国政府法令管制的金融市场,离岸金融市场同离岸货币所在国的国内金融体系以及该货币发行国境内市场相分离。离岸市场业务活动手续简便,效率高,低税或免税,很少受市场法规的管制,成为满足非居民本币或外币金融服务需求的主体。离岸货币则是离岸市场业务和离岸金融市场交易中所使用的货币。历史经验表明,货币国际化进程中离岸货币以及离岸金融市场的存在起了很大的推动作用。一国货币在境外流通或成为国际货币之后,在国际市场交易以及国际贸易需求中自然而然就形成了该国际货币的离岸交易中心,如欧洲美元市场、欧洲日元市场等。但是,货币离岸交易中心的发展会增加发行国货币供给调控的难度,使中央银行保持货币政策的独立性和稳定性受到威胁和挑战。由于大量的本币在国外交易和流通,他们会通过跨境的离岸银行等机构实现资本的流出入,增加发行国央行对存量货币进行监测和统计的难度,从而对发行国的货币供给产生影响,扰乱该国的在岸市场货币政策的调控预期,使央行损失货币政策的独立性。此外,离岸金融机构的司法管辖权、成本收益结构以及监管要求和在岸金融机构均有所不同,离岸金融机构没有存款准备金的约束,离岸市场的信贷扩张可能会通过国际金融市场间的密切关联而影响在岸市场上的信贷规模,进而影响到—国的货币总量,这同样会使央行损失货币政策的独立性。随着香港离岸人民币金融中心人民币规模的增长以及离岸市场结构的完善,离岸金融中心人民币交易活动的影响开始逐步扩大。离岸人民币交易及其跨境流通越来越引起我国货币当局、学界及世界金融界的广泛关注,因此,离岸人民币的流通和离岸人民币市场的建立对在岸人民币金融市场和我国中央银行货币政策调控的影响,就应该既从定性角度也从定量角度进行系统性的研究。离岸货币的出现及离岸金融中心的建立是国际金融发展的重要组成部分。离岸人民币以及香港离岸人民币中心的快速发展,为国际离岸货币和离岸金融市场的发展开创了新形式,即政策推动的境外本币离岸金融市场。这与为满足市场需求而自发形成的境外本币离岸市场(如欧洲美元市场)、由政策推动而建立的境内本币离岸市场(如美国纽约的International Banking Facility欧洲美元市场；日本东京的欧洲日元市场),以及成员国通过区域货币合作形成的离岸市场(如欧洲欧元市场)相比都有着较大的差异。第一,虽然中国的GDP总量在2010年实现了对日本的正式超越,成为世界第二大经济体,但中国仍然是一个发展中国家。一个发展中国家的货币成为离岸货币,并在此基础上建立离岸金融市场,就与欧洲美元市场等有着明显区别。第二,离岸人民币和离岸人民币市场的建立是在中国资本账户仍未实现自由兑换,人民币还不是可自由兑换货币的背景下出现的,因此必然存在着独特的发展途径和模式。人民币跨境交易结算作为人民币国际化战略实现的第一步,将为发展中国家离岸货币及货币国际化发展树立典范,从理论上说,这是对离岸金融理论的发展。本文研究的重点是香港离岸人民币和离岸人民币市场对我国中央银行货币政策的影响。为此本文研究了境外人民币需求变动的影响因素、境外人民币跨境流通的路径、离岸人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响、离岸人民币市场通过利率途径对境内货币市场调控的影响、离岸人民币市场通过汇率途径对境内外汇市场调控的影响等。从这些视角对离岸人民币展开研究,有可能补充和发展离岸金融理论。离岸人民币的研究还有更为重要的实践意义。首先从国内角度看,离岸人民币或将给我国境内金融经济带来比较深远的影响。离岸人民币市场发展与影响,可以使我国分享到国际铸币税收益,促进对外经济贸易关系的发展,有效缓解当前我国外汇储备过大的压力。同时,还有利于加快我国境内金融体制改革的步伐,为境内中央银行制定货币调控政策提供参考。如离岸人民币回流渠道的完善和开拓,可以为境内资本项目实现可自由兑换提供经验和借鉴；香港离岸人民币货币市场与外汇市场价格形成机制的市场化建设,可以促进和帮助境内人民币利率和汇率的市场化改革。其次从国际角度看,当前国际货币体系的弊端已经被各国清楚地认识到,尤其是近些年来数次经济金融危机给许多国家留下了惨痛的教训,改革国际货币体系的呼声日益高涨,需要国际货币体系向多元化的格局发展。离岸人民币及离岸人民币市场对我国境内金融经济的影响,离岸人民币币值稳定的经济背景、稳中有升的汇率以及良好的国际信誉,开始成为世界关注的焦点,加快和完善离岸人民币中心的建设,对于离岸人民币回流渠道的完善与拓展、离岸人民币投融资市场的建立、人民币资本项目开放的逐步实现、人民币外部循环体系的稳定与形成,对于人民币国际货币职能的实现具有重要的推动作用。本文共分八章,结构安排如下：第一章为导论。首先,对本文的选题背景和研究意义进行阐述；其次,对相关研究的文献综述进行梳理,对已有的国内外研究文献进行总结述评,以明确本文研究的方向；再次,阐述了本文的研究方法和结构安排。最后,对本文研究的创新点与不足之处及未来研究方向加以说明。第二章主要分析了国际主要离岸货币和离岸人民币的出现及发展情况。首先,分析了欧洲美元(市场推动型离岸货币)的出现和发展及其演进和含义的深化；其次,分析了欧洲马克到欧洲欧元(区域货币合作型离岸货币)的新型欧洲货币形式的出现和发展；再次,分析了欧洲日元(政策推动型本土离岸货币)的出现与发展；最后对离岸人民币的出现与发展历程及产品创新、香港离岸人民币市场的构成进行了较全面的分析。通过对这几种世界主要离岸货币发展历程的介绍与比较分析,得出了离岸货币及货币国际化的普遍特点,即雄厚的经济实力、成功的制度安排、自由的贸易网络以及积极促进区域经济合作的发展,这对离岸人民币和人民币国际化战略具有借鉴和启示意义。第三章对货币政策理论与实践进行了分析。首先,分析了货币政策理论,从数量政策和价格政策角度出发,分别介绍凯恩斯的货币理论与政策、弗里德曼为代表的货币主义者的货币理论与政策；其次,分析了离岸人民币分别与货币数量政策与价格政策执行之间的矛盾；再次,介绍了货币状况指数——MCI及其在我国的适应性；最后,分析了利率平价理论及其在离岸货币市场研究中的应用。第四章对离岸人民币需求的影响因素进行了实证分析,得出结论：人民币汇率预期、离岸人民币替代率、境内外利差与离岸人民币需求之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系；当前人民币的离岸需求更多的表现为投机性需求。第五章分析了离岸人民币及其跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响。首先,从香港离岸人民币的货币市场、证券市场、外汇市场、外汇衍生品市场和保险市场等方面梳理人民币跨境流通路径；其次,分析了人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量及货币政策的影响机理；最后,对人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响进行了实证分析。第六章对离岸与在岸人民币同业拆借利率间的关联关系进行了实证分析。第七章对离岸与在岸人民币汇率关联关系进行了实证分析。第八章借鉴国际经验提出香港离岸人民币市场发展的对策建议。依据本文研究理论基础及研究结论,提出应对离岸人民币跨境流通和离岸人民币市场快速发展对境内货币政策的影响情况及影响程度的对策建议,即尽快建立两岸人民币流通的风险联动预警机制,实现货币政策的数量与价格多种政策目标的统—协调,尽快实现人民币利率、汇率的市场化改革,逐步健康稳妥的实现资本项目的自由兑换。论文可能的创新点：第一,从理论的角度,本文以货币政策理论、利率平价理论和货币替代理论为基础,并引入货币状况指数(MCI),综合考察了离岸货币及离岸货币市场对货币主权国的货币政策的关系,动态地分析了离岸货币与境内货币价格政策与货币数量政策的矛盾。第二,从政策的角度,本文在区分欧洲美元、欧洲马克(欧洲欧元)和欧洲日元三种不同类型离岸货币的基础上,分析了离岸货币与货币国际化的关系,得出不同经济体和经济制度应该有不同的离岸货币与货币国际化的发展模式的结论,从而认为我国属于发展中国家,我国资本项目也还未实现完全可兑换,因此我国离岸人民币及人民币国际化应该有自己的特点,即借助特定地区(香港、新加坡、伦敦、台湾和澳大利亚)建立离岸人民币市场,实现逐步的人民币国际化之路。第三,从实证研究的角度,本文系统地对离岸人民币需求的影响因素进行了分析,得出离岸人民币需求更多的表现为投机性需求的结论；对离岸与在岸人民币货币市场同业拆借利率之间的关系进行了深入系统的分析,得出离岸与在岸同业拆息定价更多的表现为双向波动溢出效应的结论；将CNY、CNH、DF、NDF四个外汇市场的人民币汇率置于同—研究模型内,对离岸与在岸人民币汇率进行了深入系统的分析,得出四个外汇市场价格存在明显的联通机制、香港离岸人民币外汇市场已经表现出对境内即期外汇市场的价格引导关系的结论。论文的不足之处：由于作者对离岸人民币跨境结算交易实践认识有限,在对离岸人民币跨境流通对境内货币供给量的影响进行分析时,结论可能会比较片面。由于香港离岸人民币市场只公布了各银行同业拆息报价利率,本文使用各银行的报价利率平均值代表银行间同业拆息定价水平进行研究,得出的结论可能有失偏颇。同时,利率数据未考虑债券利率,研究所得结论可能不够全面。
[Abstract]:Offshore financial markets refer to financial markets that are not regulated by the government decree of the market host country or regulated by the government decree of the issuing country . The offshore financial markets are separated from the domestic financial system of the country where the offshore currency is located and the market in the currency issuing country . The offshore market operations are simple and convenient , high in efficiency , low taxes or duty - free , and are rarely regulated by market regulations and become the subject of the demand for non - resident functional currency or foreign currency financial services . The offshore currency is the currency used in offshore market operations and offshore financial market transactions . Historical experience shows that the existence of offshore currencies and offshore financial markets plays a great role in the internationalization process of money . The development of the offshore trading center of the country can increase the difficulty of the monetary supply and control of the issuing country , such as the European dollar market , the European yen market , etc . However , the development of the money offshore trading center will increase the difficulty of the currency supply and control of the issuing country , which can increase the monetary policy independence and stability of the central bank . With the increase of RMB scale of offshore RMB financial center in Hong Kong and the improvement of offshore market structure , the influence of offshore renminbi trading and its cross - border circulation has attracted extensive attention from the monetary authorities , academic circles and the world financial circles . Therefore , the establishment of offshore renminbi and the establishment of offshore renminbi market have exerted a systematic study on the financial market of offshore renminbi and the regulation of monetary policy of central bank in China . The emergence of offshore currencies and the establishment of offshore financial centres are an important component of international financial development . The rapid development of offshore renminbi and offshore renminbi centres in Hong Kong has created a new form for the development of international offshore currencies and offshore financial markets . At the same time , it is beneficial to accelerate the reform of China ' s domestic financial system , to promote the development of foreign economic and trade relations , to promote the development of foreign economic and trade relations and to provide reference for the development of China ' s domestic financial system . This article is divided into eight chapters , the structure arrangement is as follows : The first chapter is the introduction . Firstly , the background and significance of this thesis are discussed . Secondly , the literature review of the related research is reviewed , and the research methods and structure arrangements are described in this paper . Finally , the innovation points and shortcomings and future research directions are described . The second chapter mainly analyzes the emergence and development of the major offshore currencies and offshore RMB . First , the emergence and development of the new European monetary form of the European dollar ( the offshore currency of market push type ) is analyzed . Secondly , the paper analyzes the emergence and development of the new European monetary form in the Euro ( regional monetary cooperation type offshore currency ) . Finally , the paper analyzes the development course of the offshore renminbi and the product innovation . Finally , the paper gives the general characteristics of the internationalization of offshore currency and currency , namely the strong economic strength , the successful system arrangement , the free trade network and the development of the regional economic cooperation . In the third chapter , the theory and practice of monetary policy are analyzed . Firstly , the monetary policy theory is analyzed , and the monetary theory and policy of Keynesian theory and policy are introduced . Secondly , the contradiction between the monetary policy and the price policy is analyzed . Secondly , the currency status index _ MCI and its adaptability in China are introduced . Finally , the theory of interest rate parity and its application in the research of offshore money market are analyzed . The fourth chapter makes an empirical analysis on the factors affecting the demand of offshore RMB . The conclusion is that the RMB exchange rate is expected , the substitution rate of offshore RMB , the difference between domestic and external interest and the demand of offshore RMB are stable and long - term equilibrium ; the offshore demand of RMB is more than the speculative demand . The fifth chapter analyzes the influence of the offshore RMB and its cross - border circulation on the supply of money in China . First , the paper analyzes the cross - border circulation path of RMB from the currency market , the securities market , the foreign exchange market , the foreign exchange derivative market and the insurance market of the offshore renminbi in Hong Kong ; secondly , it analyzes the influence mechanism of RMB cross - border circulation on the supply quantity of domestic money and monetary policy ; and finally , the influence of RMB cross - border circulation on the supply quantity of domestic money is analyzed . The sixth chapter makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between offshore and onshore renminbi interbank lending rates . The seventh chapter makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates . Chapter 8 is based on the international experience to put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong . According to the theoretical foundation and the research conclusion , this paper puts forward the countermeasures to deal with the influence of offshore RMB cross - border circulation and the rapid development of offshore RMB market on the domestic monetary policy . Possible innovation points : First , from the angle of theory , this paper is based on monetary policy theory , interest rate parity theory and currency substitution theory , and introduces the monetary status index ( MCI ) , comprehensively investigates the relationship between the offshore currency and the monetary policy of the monetary sovereign countries , and dynamically analyzes the contradiction between the foreign currency and the domestic monetary policy and the monetary policy . Secondly , from the perspective of policy , this paper analyzes the relationship between offshore currencies and currency internationalization based on the distinction of three different types of offshore currencies in the United States dollar , Euromark ( Euro ) and European yen , and concludes that different economies and economic systems should have different development models of offshore currencies and currency internationalization . Therefore , China ' s offshore RMB and RMB internationalization should have its own characteristics , that is , to establish the offshore renminbi market by means of specific areas ( Hong Kong , Singapore , London , Taiwan and Australia ) to realize the gradual internationalization of RMB . Third , from the perspective of the empirical research , this paper systematically analyzes the factors affecting the demand of offshore RMB , and draws the conclusion that the offshore renminbi demand is more represented as speculative demand . The shortcomings of the thesis are as follows : Due to the limited understanding of offshore renminbi cross - border settlement transactions , the conclusion may be more than one - sided when analyzing the impact of offshore renminbi cross - border circulation on the supply of domestic money .

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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