中国实施利率中介目标制的必要性与可行性分析

发布时间：2018-01-25 04:22

本文关键词： 货币政策中介目标利率目标制传导渠道　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：货币政策中介目标是货币政策作用过程中一个非常重要的环节，中介目标选择的正确与否直接关系到货币政策最终目标能否实现。中介目标应满足可测性、可控性与相关性。随着金融创新的发展和经济环境的变化，发达国家纷纷放弃了货币供应量中介目标制选择利率中介目标制。自1984年建立中央银行制度以来，我国货币政策中介目标实现了从控制信贷规模到货币供应量目标制的转变。近年来，放眼世界金融全球化不断发展，资本管制措施逐渐失效，利率与汇率的传导机制发生改变；从内部环境看，调整结构失衡、刺激内部需求成为我国经济政策的主要任务。伴随着利率市场化进程不断深入，，我国利率传导机制正不断完善，采用利率作为中介目标有力于发挥利率的杠杆作用，提高货币政策的前瞻性、灵活性与针对性，促进我国产出水平和价格水平的稳定。本文分析了利率市场化背景下，我国实施利率中介目标制的必要性与可行性，并建立VAR模型进一步分析货币政策市场利率渠道对宏观经济目标的影响，并提出确立利率在货币政策调控中的主导地位。继续推进利率市场化改革，不断完善货币政策操作工具，优化利率传导渠道的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The intermediate target of monetary policy is a very important link in the process of monetary policy action. Whether the intermediate target is right or not is directly related to whether the ultimate goal of monetary policy can be achieved. With the development of financial innovation and the change of economic environment, developed countries have given up money supply intermediary target system to choose interest rate intermediary target system. Since the establishment of the central bank system in 1984, the intermediate target of monetary policy in China has changed from controlling the scale of credit to the target system of money supply. Capital control measures gradually fail and the transmission mechanism between interest rate and exchange rate changes; From the perspective of internal environment, adjusting structural imbalance and stimulating internal demand have become the main task of our country's economic policy. With the deepening of interest rate marketization process, the transmission mechanism of interest rate in our country is constantly improving. The use of interest rate as the intermediate target can exert the leverage of interest rate, improve the foresight, flexibility and pertinence of monetary policy, and promote the stability of output level and price level in China. This paper analyzes the necessity and feasibility of implementing interest rate intermediary target system in China under the background of interest rate marketization, and establishes VAR model to further analyze the influence of interest rate channel of monetary policy market on macroeconomic objectives. It also puts forward some policy suggestions on how to establish the dominant position of interest rate in monetary policy control, continue to push forward the reform of interest rate marketization, improve the operating tools of monetary policy, and optimize the transmission channel of interest rate.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0

【引证文献】