人民币升值、经常账户失衡和中国技术进步

发布时间：2018-02-01 13:34

本文关键词： 资本项目管制人民币汇率经常账户技术进步　出处：《金融研究》2011年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过构建资本项目管制下的中国开放经济模型,本文主要研究影响人民币升值、经常账户失衡,以及二者动态变动的经济因素。基于SVAR模型的实证研究发现:1992～2008年间的中国技术进步推动了人民币升值、增加了经常账户盈余,并且决定人民币汇率的长期均衡水平;正向需求冲击则在当期内导致经常账户赤字,长期内增加经常账户盈余;人民币汇率和经常账户之间不存在负向因果关系,二者的动态变动主要取决于外生冲击的类型。中国开放经济模型较好的解释了上述现象,货币政策冲击是影响经常账户的主要需求冲击。重要的是,由于技术进步决定一国汇率的长期均衡水平,因此人民币升值与否的关键在于中国的相对技术进步。如果国内技术进步更快,则人民币升值的压力加大、经常账户盈余加剧,此时要实现经常账户平衡,适合采用扩张性货币政策。
[Abstract]:By constructing the Chinese open economy model under capital account control, this paper mainly studies the impact of RMB appreciation and current account imbalance. An empirical study based on SVAR model shows that the technological progress in China between 1992 and 2008 promoted the appreciation of RMB and increased the current account surplus. And determine the long-term equilibrium level of RMB exchange rate; A positive demand shock leads to a current account deficit in the current period and an increase in the current account surplus in the long run; There is no negative causal relationship between RMB exchange rate and current account. The dynamic changes of both are mainly determined by the type of exogenous shocks. Monetary policy shocks are the main demand shocks affecting the current account. Importantly, the long-term equilibrium level of a country's exchange rate is determined by technological advances. Therefore, the key to the appreciation of the RMB lies in China's relative technological progress. If the domestic technological progress is faster, the pressure of RMB appreciation will increase, and the current account surplus will increase, and the current account balance will be achieved. Suitable for expansionary monetary policy.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学财税学院;上海财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：上海财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(项目号:CXJJ-2011-337)对本研究的资助
【分类号】：F832.6;F124.3;F224
【正文快照】： 一、引言人民币升值、经常账户失衡以及二者之间的动态关系一直是国内外研究的热点，对这一问题的回答需要考察开放经济条件下中国经济的现实特征。目前，中国对资本项目实施管制政策，，人民币自由兑换只能在经常项目下进行，资本项目下人民币的自由兑换受到限制，人民币利率

【参考文献】