国际资本流动对当前我国货币政策效果影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 05:12

本文关键词： 货币政策国际资本流动外汇储备外汇占款　出处：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：进入20世纪90年代以来,我国国际资本流动的规模迅速扩大,已经达到了空前的水平。另一方面,我国的货币政策已由2008年为了应对全球型的金融危机而实行的适度宽松政策调整到了稳健,然而回归常态化的货币政策效果却低于预期,这与同时期国际资本流动的异动分不开,规模庞大的国际资本流动对我国货币政策的实施效果产生重要影响。在此背景下,定性定量地分析国际资本的流动对我国当前稳健的货币政策效果影响就显得尤为重要。首先,文章借鉴实际经验及实证结果表明,汇率变化预期、实体资产价值、证券市场收益及中国对外开放程度是影响我国国际资本流动的重要影响因素。其次,文章通过货币供给模型进行定性分析发现,无论国际资本流入或是流出都将对我国货币政策产生影响,进一步利用改进的蒙代尔-弗莱明理论模型进行分析可以得到资本流动削弱货币政策效果的结论。在此基础上,文章借助VAR模型分析影响程度,结果表明外汇占款对货币供应量的影响主要体现在短期内,但依然是重要的影响因素。然而,随着我国汇率升值预期的回落、房地产市场的低迷与股市的不振,我国国际资本流入明显放缓,再加上意愿结售汇的实施,我国面对的国际资本流动存在更大的不确定性。因此,为了填补外汇占款被动发放货币的主要货币供给渠道的空白,我国采取了逆回购的更具灵活性的公开市场操作手段,以降低国际资本流动的不确定性对我国货币政策实施效果带来的影响。虽然外汇占款绝对数的减少降低了国际资本流动对货币政策效果的影响,但并不意味着外汇占款对货币政策影响路径的消失,国际资本异动依然威胁着我国货币政策的有效性。基于此,我国可以考虑从增加人民币汇率的弹性、规范外资对我国房市及股市的准入,同时加强资本流动的监控和管理这三个方面着手,以减少资本流动对我国货币政策独立性的影响,达到更好的货币政策的预期效果。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, the scale of China's international capital flows has expanded rapidly and has reached an unprecedented level. On the other hand, The monetary policy of our country has been adjusted from the moderate easing policy in 2008 to steady in response to the global financial crisis, but the effect of returning to the norm is lower than expected. This cannot be separated from the change of international capital flow in the same period. The large scale of international capital flow has an important influence on the implementation effect of monetary policy in China. In this context, qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of international capital flows on the effectiveness of China's current prudent monetary policy is particularly important. Firstly, the article draws lessons from practical experience and empirical results show that exchange rate changes are expected. The value of real assets, the income of securities market and the degree of China's opening to the outside world are the important factors that affect the international capital flow of our country. Both international capital inflows and outflows will have an impact on China's monetary policy. Further analysis with the improved Mondal-Fleming theory model can lead to the conclusion that capital flows weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the VAR model, the results show that the influence of foreign exchange on money supply is mainly reflected in the short term, but it is still an important factor. However, with the decline of the expectation of exchange rate appreciation in China, the downturn in the real estate market and the depression of the stock market, the inflow of international capital in China has slowed markedly, and the implementation of the willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange has also been added. Therefore, in order to fill the gap in the main money supply channels in which foreign exchange accounts passively issue money, China has adopted a more flexible open market operation method of reverse repurchase. In order to reduce the uncertainty of international capital flows on the effect of monetary policy implementation in China. Although the reduction in the absolute number of foreign exchange accounts has reduced the impact of international capital flows on the effect of monetary policy, However, it does not mean that the influence of foreign exchange on monetary policy will disappear, and that international capital movements will still threaten the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. Based on this, China may consider increasing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. In order to reduce the influence of capital flow on the independence of monetary policy and achieve the expected effect of monetary policy, we should standardize the entry of foreign capital to China's housing market and stock market, and strengthen the supervision and management of capital flow in order to reduce the impact of capital flow on the independence of monetary policy in China.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7;F822.0

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