中国外资银行服务贸易自由化的经济影响研究——基于可计算一般均衡SIC-GE模型的定量分析

发布时间：2018-02-19 17:47

本文关键词： 外资银行服务贸易壁垒国家信息中心可计算一般均衡模型SIC-GE 银行业效率改进　出处：《世界经济研究》2011年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文利用2005～2009年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行进入壁垒的实际数据,通过设立银行业收益和成本方程发现并估算出消除壁垒带来的两方面行业直接效应,即外资银行服务价格水平下降1.9%和国内银行业经济效率改进1.8%。在此基础上利用国家信息中心可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)就壁垒消除对整个经济体的影响进行了系统评估。测算结果表明,两个直接效应中,改进国内银行业经济效率的经济影响是主要的;从宏观层面上看,短期内能够带来就业和GDP相对基准情景增长,同时居民消费、投资和出口有所增长。进口随着国内需求的扩张略有增长,净出口明显扩大。总体上,研究结果表明,2005年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行贸易壁垒是一项较为有效的政策举措,具有较好的示范作用。
[Abstract]:Based on the actual data from 2005 to 2009 that the entry barriers of foreign banks have been gradually abolished in China, this paper finds out and estimates the direct effects of the elimination of barriers in two industries through the establishment of the benefit and cost equations of the banking sector. That is, the price level of foreign banking services fell by 1.9% and the economic efficiency of domestic banking improved by 1.8. On this basis, the impact of barriers elimination on the whole economy was systematically evaluated by using the national information center computable general equilibrium model (SIC-GE). Estimates. The results show that. Of the two direct effects, the economic impact of improving the economic efficiency of the domestic banking sector is the main one. On a macro level, it can bring employment and GDP relative benchmark growth in the short term, as well as household consumption. With the expansion of domestic demand, imports increase slightly, and net exports increase significantly. In general, the research results show that it is a more effective policy measure for China to gradually remove foreign banks' trade barriers since 2005. It has good demonstration function.
【作者单位】：上海对外贸易学院金融管理学院;国家信息中心预测部;上海社会科学院世界经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目资助,批准号:2010(10BJL039) 国家教委人文社会科学规划项目资助,批准号:2011(11YJA790030) 上海哲学社会科学一般项目,批准号:2011BJB015 2012年教委科研创新重点项目批准号:12ZS166
【分类号】：F831.2;F832.3;F224

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