香港人民币离岸市场的货币供求和均衡机制研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 08:38

本文关键词： 人民币国际化香港离岸金融市场货币供求市场均衡　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,香港人民币离岸市场发展势头迅猛。香港离岸人民币存款额不断增加,香港人民币跨境贸易结算额逐年上升,香港离岸市场上的人民币金融产品也日益丰富。香港已形成离岸市场中最大的人民币资金池,成为全球离岸人民币业务枢纽。香港人民币离岸市场的发展对人民币国际化具有重要意义。我们可以把香港人民币离岸市场理解为人民币国际化的试验田,一个研发人民币自由化后市场产品的温室,或者是人民币国际化的雏形。香港人民币离岸市场可以为跨境贸易人民币结算提供资本市场平台,形成市场化的人民币利率和汇率指标,同时可以为内地金融市场的发展提供值得借鉴的经验。通过该市场,还可以观察人民币国际化当中可能会出现的问题,可以采取的应对措施,从中取得经验,稳步推进。另外,目前,上海正在大力推进中国(上海)自由贸易试验区建设,其中重要的一部分就是要在区内发展离岸金融。但是上海在这方面没有经验,需要有所借鉴,需要摸着石头过河。香港在离岸金融方面是一个先行者,香港发展人民币离岸市场的经验,对上海发展离岸金融会有很强的借鉴作用。香港人民币离岸市场的发展可以大致分为三个阶段,2008年底之前可以称为是准备阶段,在这一阶段离岸市场主要以个人业务和债券业务为主；从2009年初到2011年中可以称为是形成阶段,在这一阶段离岸人民币产品体系基本建立；从2011年8月到现在可以称为全面建设阶段,在这一阶段离岸人民币回流渠道不断扩宽,投资途径不断增多。香港人民币离岸市场主要由香港离岸人民币货币市场、香港离岸人民币证券市场、香港离岸人民币外汇市场、香港离岸人民币保险市场等组成。随着香港人民币离岸市场的不断发展壮大,香港离岸人民币的回流渠道也日益拓展,目前的回流渠道包括贸易结算、境外金融机构投资内地银行间市场、人民币FDI投资、发行人民币债券、RQFⅡ、游客携带入境等。在现阶段,内地进口商在香港的人民币跨境贸易结算是人民币流入香港的主要渠道。香港离岸人民币新增存量决定于内地进口商汇入的人民币和内地出口商转走的人民币之间的差额,总的货币存量决定于这一差额的历史积累。香港人民币离岸市场最大的需求是希望从人民币升值预期中获利的投机需求。香港人民币离岸市场均衡的过程就是离岸人民币货币供求的双方达成平衡的过程。在此过程中,在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率的价差和人民币升(贬)值预期是关键的驱动力量。关于香港离岸人民币存款的实证研究显示,在岸和离岸人民币对美元的汇率价差是香港人民币离岸存款变动的格兰杰原因,香港跨境贸易人民币结算是香港离岸人民币的重要来源,人民币升(贬)值情况对香港离岸人民币存款量有重要影响。香港人民币离岸市场的迅猛发展也带来了一些现实和潜在风险。现实风险方面,香港人民币离岸市场的发展可能加剧“热钱”的跨境流动,可能对内地金融业形成一定的冲击,还有可能助长洗钱活动。潜在风险方面,香港人民币离岸市场的发展可能导致我国净国际投资头寸恶化,可能影响我国货币政策的有效性,也可能降低央行货币政策的独立性。这些风险应该引起充分重视,并应及早应对。应对措施包括推进跨境贸易人民币结算结构合理化、进一步放宽人民币回流渠道、加强香港与内地的反洗钱合作和及早研究香港金融体系改革等。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Hongkong's offshore RMB market. The momentum of rapid development of offshore renminbi deposits in Hongkong have increased, Hongkong cross-border RMB trade settlement amount increased year by year, the offshore market in Hongkong on the RMB financial products are increasingly rich. Hongkong has formed the largest pool of offshore RMB funds in the market, become the global offshore RMB business hub. The development of the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong is of great significance to the internationalization of RMB. We can take the test field for the internationalization of the RMB offshore renminbi market in Hongkong, a R & D yuan free products in the market after the greenhouse, or is the internationalization of the RMB prototype. The offshore renminbi market in Hongkong can provide capital market platform for cross-border RMB trade settlement, the formation of the market and the RMB interest rate the exchange rate index, and can provide value for the development of the mainland financial market Learn from the experience. Through the market, but also can observe the RMB internationalization there may be problems, measures can be taken, the experience gained from steadily. In addition, at present, Shanghai is vigorously promoting the construction of China (Shanghai) free trade zone, one of the most important part is to develop offshore finance in the region in Shanghai in this regard. But no need to learn from experience, need to cross the river by feeling the stones. Hongkong is a pioneer in the offshore financial sector, Hongkong RMB offshore market development experience, has a strong reference to the development of Shanghai offshore financial development. The offshore renminbi market in Hongkong can be divided into three stages. By the end of 2008 is referred to as the preparation stage, at this stage the offshore market mainly in the personal business and bond business; from the beginning of 2009 to 2011 can be said to be shaped A stage, at this stage the basic establishment of offshore RMB products system; from August 2011 to the present can be called the comprehensive construction stage, at this stage the offshore renminbi return channels continue to widen the investment channels, increasing. The offshore renminbi market in Hongkong is mainly composed of Hongkong offshore renminbi offshore renminbi currency market, Hongkong stock market, Hongkong's offshore RMB exchange market Hongkong offshore RMB market, insurance and so on. With the continuous development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market, Hongkong offshore renminbi return channels are also increasingly expanding, the return channel including trade settlement, foreign financial institutions to invest in the mainland interbank market, RMB FDI investment, the issuance of RMB bonds, RQF II, etc. in the inbound tourists to carry at present, the mainland importers in Hongkong RMB cross-border trade settlement is the main channel of RMB into Hongkong . the difference between Hongkong's offshore RMB new stock depends on the mainland importers import RMB and the mainland exporters turn away the yuan, the total stock of money depends on the difference of the accumulation of history. Hongkong offshore RMB market demand is the biggest hope value of speculative demand profit expected from RMB Offshore RMB market equilibrium process in Hongkong. The two sides is the offshore renminbi currency demand and supply balance. In this process, the onshore and offshore renminbi to us dollar exchange rate spreads and RMB appreciation (depreciation) value is expected to be a key driving force. An Empirical Study on Hongkong offshore RMB deposits, onshore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate spreads is Grainger Hongkong offshore RMB deposits in Hongkong, the cross-border RMB trade settlement is an important source of Hongkong offshore renminbi, people L currency (depreciation) value has important influence on Hongkong's offshore RMB deposits. The rapid development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market has also brought some realistic and potential risks. The real risk, the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market may aggravate the cross-border flow of hot money, may have a certain impact on the financial industry on the mainland, there may be contributing to money laundering activities. Potential risk, the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market could lead to China's net international investment position deteriorated, may affect the effectiveness of China's monetary policy, and may also reduce the independence of the central bank's monetary policy. These risks should be paid attention, and should respond as soon as possible. The measures include promoting cross-border RMB trade the settlement structure, further relaxation of the RMB back channels, and early research of Hongkong's financial system to strengthen Anti Money Laundering Cooperation between Hongkong and the mainland Leather and so on.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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