我国外汇储备结构及配置策略优化研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 12:07

本文关键词： 外汇储备币种结构黄金储备优化策略　出处：《东华大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国外汇储备规模的迅速扩大及新增储备的急剧增加,我国外汇储备结构优化已成为国内外研究的热门课题。外汇储备逐年增加的事实本身,充分显示了我国经济实力的不断增强,是我国改革开放基本国策、尤其是对外开放方针政策收获的丰硕成果。截止2012年6月末,国家外汇管理局公布的数据显示,我国官方外汇储备余额为3.2万亿美元。同时,根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的统计数据显示,我国外汇储备组成中美元储备占比超过六成,而美元指数自2002年起呈现一路下跌的趋势,尤其是在2008年金融危机期间下跌至71.31点的历史低点,在2002年-2012年九年间累计下跌了约1/3；股权投资比重过低,2011年,在对美投资中,股权占比仅7.8%；债权结构与期限单一,不合理等等诸多问题。面对世界经济低迷、美国“财政悬崖”以及欧债危机等,我国巨额外汇储备所带来的经济损失和战略风险都很大。因此,在世界经济形势多极化发展的今天,调整我国外汇储备的结构,确保我国高额的外汇储备能够做到保值增值,是我国外汇储备管理体制中急需研究的重要课题。本文以我国外汇储备通过对币种结构、债权、股权、贵金属以及IMF特别提款权五个方面为研究对象,得到对各个方面进行优化的路径,币种结构方面,应坚持多元化策略,减少美元比例,增加欧元以及新兴经济体货币,积极推进人民币国际化以使人民币成为一篮子货币,进而从币种上确保安全性与收益性；债权方面,调整目前的债权结构与期限,减少债权性储备、美元资产储备；股权方面,增加股权投资内容与渠道,完善主权财富基金的投资机制；贵金属方面,增加原生金储备、藏金于民、建立贵金属专项投资基金；IMF特别提款权方面,在SDR有限的分配上增资SDR,同时推进人民币国际化进程使人民币成为构建SDR这一超主权货币的一员。之后,笔者以数学模型为根据,得出更优的多元化策略,具体而言,多元化策略通过币种多元化、资产多元化、投资渠道多元化几个方面来实现。最后,笔者通过提出政策建议来终结本文。
[Abstract]:With the rapid expansion of China's foreign exchange reserves and the rapid increase of new reserves, the optimization of the structure of foreign exchange reserves has become a hot topic at home and abroad. It fully shows that our country's economic strength is continuously strengthened, which is the fruitful result of our country's basic national policy of reform and opening up, especially the policy of opening to the outside world. As of the end of 2012, the data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that the balance of China's official foreign exchange reserves was 3.2 tillion US dollars. Meanwhile, according to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The US dollar reserves account for more than 60% of China's foreign exchange reserves, and the US dollar index has been on a downward trend since 2002, especially when it fell to a historic low of 71.31 points during the 2008 financial crisis. In the nine years from 2002 to 2012, the cumulative decline was about one third; the proportion of equity investment was too low. In 2011, the proportion of equity in investment in the United States was only 7.8 percent; the structure and maturity of claims were single, unreasonable and so on. In the face of the world economic downturn, In the United States, the "fiscal cliff" and the European debt crisis, the economic losses and strategic risks caused by China's huge foreign exchange reserves are very large. Therefore, with the multipolar development of the world economic situation, the structure of China's foreign exchange reserves has been adjusted. It is an important subject in the management system of foreign exchange reserves to ensure that the high foreign exchange reserves in China can maintain and increase their value. This article takes the foreign exchange reserve of our country through five aspects of currency structure, creditor's right, equity, precious metal and IMF special drawing right as the research object, obtains the path to optimize each aspect, currency structure aspect, should adhere to the diversification strategy. Reducing the dollar ratio, increasing the euro and emerging economies' currencies, actively promoting the internationalization of the renminbi to make the renminbi a basket of currencies, thereby ensuring safety and profitability in currencies; creditor's rights, Adjust the current structure and duration of claims, reduce the reserve of creditor's rights and US dollar assets, increase the contents and channels of equity investment, improve the investment mechanism of sovereign wealth funds, and increase the reserve of primary gold in the respect of precious metals, With regard to the limited allocation of the SDR, the Special drawing Rights (SDR), a special investment fund for precious metals, has been set up to boost the RMB's internationalization and make it a member of the SDR, a super-sovereign currency. Then, based on the mathematical model, the author comes up with a better diversification strategy. Specifically, the diversification strategy is realized through currency diversification, asset diversification and investment channel diversification. Finally, I put forward policy recommendations to end this article.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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