人民币实际有效汇率变动的贸易增长效应分析

发布时间：2018-02-24 16:20

  本文关键词： 人民币实际有效汇率 国际贸易 经济增长 GMM估计　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国经济高速增长的30年间,外贸所起的作用不可小视。但是由于中国对主要贸易伙伴国一直以来均保持顺差并且顺差额逐年加大,造成贸易伙伴国颇有微词,普遍认为人民币汇率严重低估。迫于各方压力及中国经济可持续发展的需要,2005年7月开始按照主动性、可控性、渐进性的原则进行汇率制度改革,实行以市场供求为基础的、参考一篮子货币的浮动汇率制度。截至到2012年2月人民币兑美元汇率由8.0702升值到6.308,累计升值20.99%。人民币升值后带来一系列的影响,大部分领域的出口商品数量减少,出口企业利润下降,面临生存困境；贸易顺差减少,甚至2012年开始出现逆差。另一方面,人民币的升值也使得中国企业的进口成本下降,对我国进口企业来说无疑具有积极的作用。 汇率作为一国参与国际经济活动的重要的综合性指标,它的变化将对一国的贸易收支、经济增长及产业发展都会产生重要的影响。从人民币发展史来看,不论是在东南亚危机中的人民币贬值的争议,还是目前人民币面临的升值的压力,关注的焦点都集中在人民币和外贸之间的关系。因此分析人民币汇率与中国外贸之间的关系,不仅关系到中国外贸的健康平稳发展和人民币汇率制度改革的推进,并且关系到我国整个改革开放的大局,关系到中国与贸易伙伴国之间的贸易关系,因此研究人民币汇率变化与我国外贸之间的关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。 有关汇率与贸易的关系的研究方法主要有时滞效应分析法、货币分析法、吸收分析法和弹性分析法,已经形成了系统的理论体系。其中,尤其是弹性分析法中的马歇尔——勒纳条件,论述十分严谨。货币分析法、吸收分析法主要从宏观层面进行分析；时滞效应分析法、弹性分析法虽然都是微观层面的分析,但是它们对于汇率变动和贸易收支之间的关系进行了高度的抽象,有严格的假设前提,例如弹性分析法的假设前提是汇率变动等同于进出口实际价格的变动,时滞效应分析法的假设前提是进出口定价的货币比重存在不同。本文的研究目的并不是为了建立一个理论体系,而是针对现实中的现象做具体的分析,即从人民币实际有效汇率对中国对外贸易的发展这一角度进行重点研究,考察人民币汇率对国际贸易影响的作用机制和作用途径,以期对目前的汇率制度改革提供有益的建议和意见。 本文主要在实证分析时,不仅对全国层面上汇率对贸易的影响进行了全面的分析,同时为了区别区域之间的差异性,还做了分区域分析。除此之外,为了使汇率变化对我国贸易发展方式的影响有更为具体的认识,本文还进一步分析了人民币实际有效汇率对我国加工贸易发展的影响。 本文拟分七章。 ‘第一章为导论,主要介绍了本文的研究背景、研究意义、主要研究方法以及主要创新点。 第二章为文献综述部分,主要针对全球汇率制度的演变、人民币汇率的度量方法、人民币汇率对出口的影响、人民币汇率对进口的影响等几个方面进行了全面的文献分析,并进行了简单的总结。 第三章分析了汇改以来人民币实际有效汇率的变动情况。为了验证我们选取人民币实际有效汇率作为人民币汇率代理指标的合理性,我们进一步分析了人民币汇率和人民币有效汇率的变动情况,并对三个指标进行了各方面的比较。为了认清有些人认为的人民币汇率的低估是造成美国贸易逆差扩大的原因,采用计量分析的方法对人民币实际有效汇率和美国贸易逆差之间的关系进行了检验。结果发现人民币实际有效汇率的变动并不是造成美国对中国贸易逆差扩大的原因。接着分析了学术界的热点问题之一：马歇尔勒纳条件在中美贸易间的适用性问题进行了重点的分析。选取了中美贸易收支差额、人民币实际有效汇率、中国收入水平、美国收入水平四个变量,针对马歇尔勒纳条件的适用性进行了检验。结果发现,中美之间的贸易并不满足马歇尔勒纳条件中进出口商品需求弹性之和大于1的条件,这在一定程度上也可以解释为什么人民币升值7年多来中美之间的贸易顺差并没有降低的现象。 第四章采用全国层面上的省区面板数据实证分析了人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国外贸发展的影响。选取了人民币实际有效汇率、实际利用外资、资本投入、劳动力投入以及非市场化程度等变量作为解释变量,借助广义矩估计方法(GMM)分析了各变量对我国外贸总额、进口额和出口额的影响。结果发现人民币实际有效汇率对我国的出口、进口的作用方向与传统经济理论的结论一致,其中对出口的促进作用(0.45)大于对进口的阻碍作用(-0.03),正负抵消后从而导致人民币实际有效汇率对外贸总额产生了正向的促进作用(0.34)。因此在样本期间内,人民币实际有效汇率的升值对我国的外贸增长的长期影响是不利的,必须要在可控性、渐进性的原则下进行汇率制度的改革,并在改革过程中结合国内外的经济发展状况进行合理的调整,切不可因为进行汇改而影响国内经济发展良好势头。 为了进一步认清人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国外贸发展的区域不平衡现象产生了怎样的影响,在文章的第五章进行了分区域的检验。按照行政区域的划分样本省市划分为东中西部三个区域,分别检验了人民币实际有效汇率对外贸总额、出口和进口的影响。结果表明,总体上来讲,人民币实际有效汇率的变动不论是对东部地区、中部地区还是对于西部地区外贸发展的影响均符合传统经济理论和金融理论的分析结果,即人民币对外贬值,会降低中国出口产品的国际市场价格,从而增加我国的出口；另一方面又会增加进口产品的国内市场价格,从而使得进口量减少。但是具体来说,人民币实际有效汇率对于东中西部外贸发展的作用大小存在一定的差别：(1)人民币实际有效汇率对外贸发展的影响分析结果显示,人民币实际有效汇率贬值1%,带动中部地区和西部地区的外贸发展0.5418%和0.2055%,明显大于东部地区的影响系数(0.1544)。(2)在出口贸易上,人民币实际有效汇率对于中部地区的出口贸易推动作用最大,为0.0460；其次为东部地区(0.0308)；人民币实际有效汇率对西部地区的促进作用最小,为0.020。(3)人民币汇率的变动对东部地区进口贸易的阻碍作用最大,人民币实际有效汇率每贬值1%,造成东部地区的进口贸易减少0.6245%；其次为中部地区影响系数为-0.0758；人民币实际有效汇率对西部地区的阻碍作用最小,为-0.066。 加工贸易在我国外贸发展中起到了重要的作用,占据了我国外贸发展的半壁江山,近年来推动加工贸易转型升级成为我国上至政府部门下至企业的重要任务。为了认清人民币实际有效汇率对我国外贸发展方式转变的影响,在本文的第六章分析了人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国加工贸易发展的影响。结果发现,不论是在长期还是短期人民币实际有效汇率都是影响我国加工贸易发展的重要原因。(1)利用Johansen协整检验方法得到的结果表明,从长期来看,人民币实际有效汇率和加工贸易发展变量之间存在负相关的关系。人民币汇率币值每增长(贬值)1%,我国的加工贸易额增速降低0.36415%。(2)误差修正模型的检验结果表明,上年的人民币实际有效汇率、技术进步、利用外资和对外开放度等变量的非均衡误差以0.5293%的速度对本年度的加工贸易额做出修正。(3)最后,利用脉冲响应函数和方法分解方法对各个变量对加工贸易的影响进行了分解。分解结果表明人民币实际有效汇率的变化是导致加工贸易额变化的主导因素,而代表开放水平的对外开放度对加工贸易的影响相对较小。说明金融全球化和资本的跨国流动对我国的加工贸易的影响更为深远。人民币实际有效汇率的变动对我国加工贸易产生的阻碍作用更大,这一结论致使我们思考,是否我国的劳动力比较优势已经丧失,从而导致人民币实际有效汇率的变动对劳动密集型产品出口为主的加工贸易的阻碍作用更为明显?我国的人口红利时期是否已经结束,“刘易斯拐点”是否已经出现?我们借助于刘易斯模型分析计算了我国农业部门和工业部门的边际劳动生产率,结果发现我国已经在2003年跨过了“刘易斯第一拐点”并且可能将在2022年跨过“刘易斯第二拐点”,我国已经从劳动力无限剩余进入了有限供给阶段,劳动力比较有优势正在慢慢消逝。 第七章为本文的研究结论和政策建议部分。
[Abstract]:China rapid economic growth during the past 30 years, foreign trade plays important role. But because of Chinese of major trading partners have remained surplus and surplus increased year by year, the trade partners is quite critical, generally considered the RMB exchange rate undervalued. Under pressure from all sides and China economic sustainable development, in accordance with the initiative started in July 2005, controllability and gradual progress of the principle of the reform of exchange rate system, implement based on market supply and demand, the floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies. By February 2012 the RMB exchange rate against the dollar by 8.0702 rise to 6.308, the cumulative appreciation of RMB appreciation of the impact of the 20.99%. series, the volume of export in most areas of reduced exports the decline in corporate profits, facing the survival dilemma; reduce the trade surplus, even deficit since 2012. On the other hand, people The appreciation of the national currency also reduced the import cost of Chinese enterprises, and undoubtedly had a positive effect on the import enterprises of our country.
The exchange rate as a country participating in international economic activity important comprehensive index, it will change to a country's balance of trade, economic growth and industrial development will produce the important influence. From the perspective of the development history of RMB, whether in the Southeast Asian crisis in the devaluation of the dispute, or the revaluation of the renminbi. The pressure, the focus of attention has focused on the relationship between RMB and foreign trade. So the analysis of the relationship between RMB exchange rate and foreign trade Chinese, not only related to the healthy and stable development of foreign trade Chinese and RMB exchange rate system reform, and in relation to our country the overall situation of reform and opening up, the relationship between Chinese and trade partners trade the relationship, which has important theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade.
The research methods about the relationship between exchange rate and trade the main time lag effect analysis, monetary analysis, absorption analysis and elastic analysis method, has formed a systematic theoretical system. Among them, especially the elastic analysis of the Marshall - Lerner condition, discusses the very stringent. Currency analysis, mainly from the absorption analysis the macro level analysis method; analysis of time delay effect, elastic analysis are microcosmic analysis, but they are for the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance are highly abstract, there are strict premises, such as the assumption of elastic analysis method is equivalent to the actual exchange rate of import and export price changes, delay analysis of the effect of assumption method is the import and export pricing currency proportion is different. The purpose of this study is to establish a theoretical system, but in reality Specific analysis of the phenomenon, from the development of the RMB real effective exchange rate of China foreign trade this perspective focuses on the way to study the mechanism and the role of international trade and the influence of RMB exchange rate, in order to provide useful suggestions and opinions on the current exchange rate system reform.
This paper mainly in the empirical analysis, not only impact on the national level of exchange rate on trade is analyzed. At the same time in order to distinguish differences between regions, but also the regional analysis. In addition, in order to make the effect of exchange rate changes on China's trade development have more specific understanding of the further analysis of the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the development of China's processing trade.
This article is divided into seven chapters.
The first chapter is an introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the research, the significance of the research, the main research methods and the main innovation points.
The second chapter is the literature review. It mainly analyzes the evolution of the global exchange rate system, the measurement method of RMB exchange rate, the impact of RMB exchange rate on exports, and the impact of RMB exchange rate on imports, and makes a comprehensive summary of the literature.
The third chapter analyzes the changes of real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate reform. In order to verify our selection of RMB real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate as a proxy indicator of rationality, we further analyze the RMB exchange rate and RMB exchange rate changes, and three indicators were compared in various aspects. In order to understand some people underestimate the RMB exchange rate that is the cause of the US trade deficit to expand, by the way of quantitative analysis on the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the U.S. trade deficit was tested. The results showed that the RMB real effective exchange rate is not the cause of the United States to expand the trade deficit of Chinese. Then analyzes one of the hot issues in academic circles: Marshall Lerner condition is the focus of the analysis on the applicability of the Sino US trade between the selected in. The United States trade balance, the real effective exchange rate of RMB, Chinese income level, the income level of the four variables, the applicability for the Marshall Lerner condition were tested. The results showed that the trade between the two countries does not meet the Marshall Lerner condition of import and export commodities in the elasticity of demand is greater than the sum of 1 terms, this can also explain why the yuan between the appreciation of more than 7 years of Sino US trade surplus does not reduce the phenomenon to a certain extent.
The fourth chapter uses the empirical provincial panel data on the national level analysis of the impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate on China's foreign trade development. The real effective exchange rate of RMB, the actual use of foreign capital, capital investment, labor input and non market level variables as explanatory variables, using generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis the variables on China's total foreign trade, affecting imports and exports. The results show that exports of RMB exchange rate on China's import, direction and the role of the traditional economic theory is consistent, which promotes the export (0.45) is greater than the effects on imports (-0.03), after which offset lead to the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a positive effect on foreign trade (0.34). Therefore in the sample period, the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation of foreign trade of our country Long term effects of growth is negative, we must in the controllability of the exchange rate system reform in the progressive principle, and make reasonable adjustment with economic development situation at home and abroad in the process of reform, must not because of the reform and the impact of domestic economic development good momentum.
In order to further understand the RMB real effective exchange rate on China's foreign trade development of the regional imbalance of the impact, the test area in the fifth chapter. According to the division of the administrative division of the sample provinces for East and West three regions, respectively, to test the real effective exchange rate of RMB on foreign trade, influence export and import. The results show that, generally speaking, the RMB real effective exchange rate for the eastern region, central region and influence for the foreign trade development in the western region are in line with the results of the analysis of traditional economic theory and financial theory, namely the depreciation of RMB, will reduce the China export price in the international market, so as to increase my China's exports; on the other hand will increase the price of imported products on the domestic market, thus reduced imports. But specifically, people The RMB real effective exchange rate for a certain difference between eastern and western development of foreign trade size: (1) the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the foreign trade development analysis shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB devaluation of 1%, driven by the central region and the western region of the development of foreign trade in 0.5418% and 0.2055%, significantly higher than the eastern region (0.1544 influence coefficient). (2) in the export trade, the RMB real effective exchange rate for the central region of the export trade promotion, 0.0460; followed by the eastern region (0.0308); the real effective exchange rate of RMB to the smallest improvement in the western region, 0.020. (3) inhibited the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on import trade in eastern region the largest, the real effective exchange rate of RMB devaluation of 1% each, resulting in the eastern region of the import trade decreased by 0.6245%; followed by the central region influence coefficient of -0.0758 people; The actual effective exchange rate of the people's currency has the smallest impediment to the western region, which is -0.066.
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