供求关系对我国股票市场价格波动影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 08:12

本文关键词： 供求关系股票市场价格波动　出处：《暨南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着股票市场在我国金融市场中地位的不断提高，股票市场价格波动对宏观经济的影响一直受到管理层和学术界的关注，当前我国股票市场无论在参与者人数，还是在上市公司数量方面，，都已今非昔比。本文结合当前股票市场供求关系现状，从供给与需求两个方面讨论了影响我国股票市场价格波动的影响因素并进行了研究和检验，探讨了股票市场和宏观经济之间的传导机制，并对规范市场发展提供了相关的政策建议，揭示了股票市场波动对宏观经济的深远影响。本文主要从市场供求关系分析的视角阐释了影响我国股票市场波动的主要作用机制。研究发现，供求关系影响因素在股票市场价格波动中至关重要。影响股票价格波动的因素很多，通过对影响因素进行供给和需求的划分，同时引入到股票资产的供求分析中，进而构建股票价格的相对变化和股票供需缺口之间的正比关系模型，从而把股票供给和需求两个方面因素结合在一起得到了简化形式的二阶差分方程，根据差分方程稳定性条件，推出了影响我国股票市场稳定性的重要因素和防范市场大幅波动的条件。差分方程的稳定构成了供需之间实现均衡的重要条件，文章以此为重要前提进行了深入的讨论。本文以我国上证指数为样本，以国泰安提供的数据为依据，采用多元线性回归等方法，对影响因素的显著性进行了检验和分析。通过以上从供求关系的视角对股票市场价格波动的研究，本文结合全文的分析过程给出了稳定我国股票市场、防范大幅波动的政策建议，同时对当前市场价格波动研究提供了一个研究思路和合理解释，最后对本文研究的不足和未来进一步研究方向进行了总结和分析。
[Abstract]:With the increasing position of stock market in Chinese financial market, the impact of stock market price fluctuation on macro economy has been concerned by management and academic circles. At present, the number of participants in stock market in our country is no matter the number of participants. In terms of the number of listed companies, this paper discusses the factors that affect the price fluctuation of the stock market in China from the two aspects of supply and demand, combining with the current situation of supply and demand in the stock market. This paper probes into the transmission mechanism between the stock market and the macro economy, and provides relevant policy suggestions for regulating the development of the market, and reveals the profound influence of the stock market fluctuation on the macro economy. From the perspective of market supply and demand analysis, this paper explains the main mechanism that affects the volatility of stock market in China. The influence factors of supply and demand are very important in the price fluctuation of stock market. There are many factors that influence the fluctuation of stock price. By dividing the factors of supply and demand, it is introduced into the analysis of the supply and demand of stock assets at the same time. Then a model of the proportional relationship between the relative change of stock price and the gap between supply and demand of stock is constructed, and then the simplified second-order difference equation is obtained by combining the two factors of stock supply and demand. According to the stability conditions of the difference equation, the important factors affecting the stability of the stock market in China and the conditions to prevent the large volatility of the stock market are deduced. The stability of the difference equation constitutes the important condition for achieving the equilibrium between supply and demand. Based on the data provided by Guotai'an, this paper tests and analyzes the significance of the influencing factors by using multiple linear regression method and so on, taking the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index as the sample and the data provided by Cathay Tai'an as the basis. Through the above research on the stock market price fluctuation from the angle of supply and demand, this paper gives some policy suggestions to stabilize our stock market and guard against the large fluctuation, combined with the analysis process of the full text. At the same time, it provides a research idea and reasonable explanation for the current market price fluctuation research, and finally summarizes and analyzes the deficiency of this paper and the future research direction.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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