经济增长、国际资源品价格与输入性通货膨胀——基于扩展的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-26 23:34

本文关键词： 菲利普斯曲线经济增长通货膨胀资源品价格　出处：《广东金融学院学报》2011年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型中引入国际资源品价格变量、货币供应量、人民币名义汇率,扩展新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型,并利用SVAR模型进行实证检验,结果表明,"中国因素"已经成为当前国际资源品价格上涨的主要动力,其影响力度强于美元流动性、弱于美元汇率;中国的经济增长、国际资源品价格上升和输入性通货膨胀具有共生关系;输入性通货膨胀因素的影响强于经济增长、货币供应量因素和人民币升值的影响;货币供应量对通货膨胀的影响具有滞后性。因此,应大力发展期货市场,鼓励国内大型企业参股或者控股国外资源开发公司的股权,加强政府对国际大宗商品采购的宏观指导;同时,应加速调整中国经济增长结构。
[Abstract]:This paper introduces international resource price variables, money supply, RMB nominal exchange rate into the new Keynesian Phillips curve model, extends the new Keynesian Phillips curve model, and makes an empirical test with SVAR model. The results show that the "China factor" has become the main driving force of the current rise in the prices of international resource goods, and its impact is stronger than the liquidity of the US dollar and weaker than the exchange rate of the US dollar.China 's economic growth, The influence of imported inflation is stronger than that of economic growth, money supply and RMB appreciation. The influence of money supply on inflation is lagging behind. Therefore, we should develop the futures market vigorously, encourage domestic large enterprises to participate in stock or control the equity of foreign resource development companies, and strengthen the macro guidance of government to international commodity purchasing. At the same time, we should speed up the adjustment of China's economic growth structure.
【作者单位】：天津财经大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F124;F822.5;F224

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