人民币汇率、进口价格与国内物价关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 17:27

本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：进口价格　出处：《宁波大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汇率是国际贸易运转的核心，，其变动对贸易方向和贸易规模起着导向标的作用；进口价格是联通汇率和国内物价的关键环节，且汇率波动主要是通过进口价格对国内物价产生影响；而经济体内部物价的变动不仅影响着汇率的动向，也深深的影响着经济体对进口产品的需求。在分析汇率、进口价格与国内物价的关系时，一般从汇率传导效应的角度出发，本文也试着从汇率传导效应的角度就汇率对进口价格和国内物价的影响进行分析。根据一单位的汇率变动能否引起等量的价格变化，可以将汇率传导效应分为完全传导和不完全传导。在封闭的经济体内，汇率对物价的影响可以忽略，即汇率对物价的传导效应不存在；在开放的经济体内，汇率的波动可以引起物价的等量变动，即汇率对物价的传导效应是完全的。目前，中国经济处于转型阶段，经济的开放程度不断增强。在人民币汇率市场化程度提高、汇率波动幅度增大的背景下，汇率传导效应不断增强，鉴于此，分析人民币汇率波动对进口价格和中国物价的传导效应，对控制中国的通胀、制定合适的货币政策有着重要的意义。文章第一部分，主要是提出问题，对汇率传导的相关文献进行了归纳，从国外研究和国内研究两方面展开，并对研究意义进行了阐述；第二部分，在定义汇率传导概念、归纳汇率传导类型的基础上，就人民币汇率波动对物价传导效应的具体机制方面进行了阐述；第三部分在描述人民币汇率、进口价格和物价变动情况的基础上，分析了三者之间的关系；第四部分，基于2005年7月至2011年12月的月度数据，选取了货币供应量、贸易开放度、人民币汇率及国内物价水平等指标，就人民币对中国进口价格和居民消费价格进行了实证分析。最后，本文就研究结论和相应的政策启示进行了说明。本文主要结论如下： 1.人民币汇率的波动对进口价格水平有着直接的影响,且影响比较显著。 2.人民币升值对通胀有抑制作用，但效果不明显。 3.存在汇率进口价格工业品出厂价格居民消费价格这条汇率传递的价格传导链。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is the core of the operation of international trade, and its change plays a guiding role in the direction of trade and the scale of trade, and the import price is the key link of China Unicom's exchange rate and domestic price. Moreover, exchange rate fluctuations mainly affect domestic prices through import prices; and changes in prices within economies not only affect the movement of exchange rates, but also deeply affect the demand for imported products by economies. In analyzing exchange rates, When it comes to the relationship between import prices and domestic prices, it generally starts from the angle of exchange rate conduction effect. This paper also tries to analyze the effect of exchange rate on import price and domestic price from the angle of exchange rate conduction effect. The exchange rate conduction effect can be divided into complete transmission and incomplete transmission. In a closed economy, the effect of exchange rate on prices can be ignored, that is, the transmission effect of exchange rate to price does not exist; in open economy, The fluctuation of exchange rate can cause the equivalent change of price, that is, the conduction effect of exchange rate on price is complete. At present, China's economy is in the transition stage, and the degree of economic openness is increasing. Under the background of increasing exchange rate fluctuation, exchange rate conduction effect is increasing. In view of this, this paper analyzes the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on import price and Chinese price, and controls inflation in China. It is important to formulate appropriate monetary policy. The first part of the article, mainly raises the question, has carried on the induction to the exchange rate transmission related literature, launched from the foreign research and the domestic research two aspects, and has carried on the elaboration to the research significance; the second part, in the definition exchange rate conduction concept, On the basis of summarizing the types of exchange rate transmission, the paper expounds the specific mechanism of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on price conduction. The third part describes the changes of RMB exchange rate, import price and price. Part 4th, based on the monthly data from July 2005 to December 2011, selected the indexes of money supply, trade openness, RMB exchange rate and domestic price level. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the import price and consumer price of China. Finally, this paper explains the research conclusions and the corresponding policy implications. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:. 1. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a direct effect on the level of import price, and the influence is obvious. 2. The appreciation of RMB has a restraining effect on inflation, but the effect is not obvious. 3. There is the exchange rate import price, industrial product ex-factory price, resident consumer price, the price transmission chain of exchange rate.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.61;F726

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