现金流不确定性对股利政策影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 07:03

本文选题：现金流不确定性　切入点：股利支付倾向　出处：《中南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：作为公司三大财务决策之一的股利政策,一直是国内外学者和投资者关注的焦点问题。合理的股利政策不仅能树立良好的企业形象,还能增强投资者的信心,增加潜在投资的可能性。迄今为止,国内外学者研究发现股利政策存在众多影响因素,然而,作为影响因素之一的现金流不确定性却没有受到学术界的足够关注,所以将现金流不确定性纳入股利政策分析框架中,可以为股利政策提供新的视角,为上市公司制定合理股利政策提供新的经验依据。本文立足于我国特殊资本环境和股权结构,提出了基于现金流不确定性视角的股利政策分析框架,并对国内外股利政策相关理论与实证进行了全面系统的梳理,分析现金流不确定性对股利政策的影响机理。以2005-2010年间沪深两市的770家非金融A股上市公司为研究对象,综合运用Eviews、Spss和Excel对上市公司进行实证分析,以净现金流不确定性和自由现金流不确定性作为现金流不确定性指标,研究现金流不确定性对股利政策的影响,旨在探讨代理理论和信号理论在我国的适用性。最后针对于实证结论进行分析,并提出相关建议。研究结果显示,现金流不确定性与股票股利支付倾向、支付力度均成正相关,与现金股利支付倾向成正相关,但是与现金股利支付力度成负相关。这表明现金流不确定性增加时,上市公司将选择继续发放现金股利并降低发放的力度,但股票股利将继续发放并且发放力度提高。另外,以上的研究结果表明代理理论、信号理论和财务保守行为在我国资本市场都具有一定的合理性。股利政策不仅是一项事后支付工作,同时也可以起到事前预测作用,所以不能仅用一种股利理论对公司股利政策众多影响因素的作用进行解释。
[Abstract]:Abstract: dividend policy, as one of the three major financial decisions of the company, has always been the focus of attention of domestic and foreign scholars and investors. Reasonable dividend policy can not only establish a good corporate image, but also enhance the confidence of investors. Up to now, scholars at home and abroad have found that there are many factors affecting dividend policy, however, the uncertainty of cash flow as one of the influencing factors has not been paid enough attention by academia. Therefore, introducing the uncertainty of cash flow into the framework of dividend policy analysis can provide a new perspective for dividend policy, and provide a new empirical basis for listed companies to formulate reasonable dividend policy. Based on China's special capital environment and equity structure, this paper puts forward an analytical framework of dividend policy based on the perspective of cash flow uncertainty, and makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the relevant theories and empirical evidence of dividend policy at home and abroad. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of cash flow uncertainty on dividend policy. Taking 770 non-financial A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2005 to 2010 as the research object, the empirical analysis of listed companies is carried out by using EviewsSpss and Excel. Taking the uncertainty of net cash flow and free cash flow as the index of uncertainty of cash flow, the influence of uncertainty of cash flow on dividend policy is studied. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the applicability of agency theory and signal theory in China. The results show that the uncertainty of cash flow is positively correlated with the tendency of dividend payment, and the intensity of payment is positively correlated with the tendency of cash dividend payment. However, there is a negative correlation with the cash dividend payment. This indicates that when the cash flow uncertainty increases, the listed company will choose to continue to pay cash dividends and reduce the intensity of the payment, but the stock dividend will continue to be paid and the intensity of the payment will increase. The above results show that agency theory, signal theory and financial conservative behavior are reasonable in China's capital market. Dividend policy is not only an ex post payment work, but also plays a predictive role in advance. Therefore, we can not only use one dividend theory to explain the effect of many factors of company dividend policy.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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