开放条件下我国货币政策有效性的经验分析——基于目标实现与工具选择角度的评价

发布时间：2018-03-05 19:40

本文选题：货币政策　切入点：有效性　出处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2011年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文利用HP滤波、LSTVAR方法估算我国产出缺口、通胀缺口及货币政策变量的广义脉冲响应函数,以此研究我国货币政策在目标实现和工具选择等方面的有效性。研究结果表明,改革开放以来,我国货币政策的调控经历了"急刹车"、"软着陆"、"防通缩"和"控温降速"等阶段,政策调控缺乏预见性和提前量,政策工具的使用和力度把握不准确,政策有效性不容乐观;开放条件下,我国货币政策工具的混合使用使得政府很难掌握调控力度和节奏,政府以利率作为主要调控手段的做法不明智,应主要借助信贷、货币量调控。随着经验的积累,政策工具选择的侧重点越来越突出,微调特征日益明显,调控效率总体上有显著提升。最后,本文给出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we use HP filter LSTVAR method to estimate the output gap, inflation gap and the generalized impulse response function of monetary policy variables, so as to study the effectiveness of monetary policy in target realization and tool selection in China. Since the reform and opening up, the adjustment and control of monetary policy in China has gone through the stages of "sharp braking", "soft landing", "preventing deflation" and "controlling temperature and speed". The policy regulation and control lacks predictability and advance amount, and the use and strength of policy tools are not accurate. Under the open conditions, the mixed use of monetary policy tools in China makes it difficult for the government to grasp the intensity and rhythm of regulation and control. It is unwise for the government to take interest rates as the main means of regulation and control, so it should mainly rely on credit. With the accumulation of experience, the emphasis of the choice of policy tools becomes more and more prominent, the characteristics of fine-tuning become more and more obvious, and the efficiency of regulation is improved significantly. Finally, this paper gives some relevant policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学经济学院;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-10-0824) 全国统计科研计划重点项目(2009LZ032) 中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划资助和中央财经大学“211工程”三期资助
【分类号】：F224;F822.0

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