人民币汇率升值对河北省出口贸易影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 09:03

本文选题：汇率升值　切入点：出口贸易　出处：《河北经贸大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：汇率是指两个国家不同货币之间的比价或交换比率，反映了不同国家货币之间的价值对比关系，是一国进行国际贸易和国际金融时最重要的综合性价格指标，在不同国家间起着价格转换职能的重要作用。伴随经济全球化进程的加快，一国汇率对该国贸易的影响也越来越显著。自1994年首次人民币汇率改革以来，人民币便开始进入持续、缓慢的升值历程。迫于西方国家的政治压力和我国自身经济发展的需要，2005年7月21日，中国人民银行宣布对人民币汇率进行再次改革，，宣布汇改当日人民币即升值2.1%。自2008年以来，受美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机的影响，西方国家货币纷纷贬值，加速了人民币升值的步伐，而且还有进一步升值的可能。因此在这种汇率形势下，人民币汇率升值对地区经济的影响备受各方瞩目。河北省作为一个外贸大省,近几年来，对外贸易无论是在总量方面还是在增速方面都有了长足的发展。但与广州、山东等贸易发达省份相比，还有相当大的差距。在外向型经济发展程度不断加深的背景下，依靠机电产品、高新技术产品、钢材、医药产品等为主要出口的河北省其外贸依存度也在逐年上升。因此，研究人民币汇率升值对河北省出口的影响，对于优化河北省的出口商品结构、促进出口贸易的发展乃至对河北省整体经济的提升都是很重要的。本文首先简要回顾了与人民币汇率变动对进出口贸易影响相关的文献综述和理论综述；然后研究了人民币汇率升值与河北省出口贸易变化的关系。考虑到汇率升值对于河北省不同的出口国家影响可能会有所不同，因此，本文从双边贸易角度出发，选取欧盟、美国、日本和韩国四个河北省最重要的出口国家作为研究对象，实证分析了人民币汇率升值与河北省对欧盟、美国、日本和韩国四国的出口关系，研究结果表明河北省的出口与人民币汇率升值之间有着长期、稳定的均衡关系，人民币汇率升值对河北省的出口在短期内会造成一定的冲击。最后根据模型的结果提出了促进河北省出口贸易稳速发展的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate refers to the value comparison or exchange rate between different currencies of two countries, which reflects the value contrast between the currencies of different countries. It is the most important comprehensive price index when a country conducts international trade and international finance. It plays an important role in the function of price conversion among different countries. With the acceleration of economic globalization, the influence of a country's exchange rate on its trade is becoming more and more significant. Since 1994, the first reform of RMB exchange rate, In July 21st 2005, the people's Bank of China announced another reform of the RMB exchange rate, due to political pressure from Western countries and the need for China's own economic development. Since 2008, under the influence of the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the currencies of Western countries have depreciated one after another, accelerating the pace of appreciation of the renminbi. There is also the possibility of further appreciation. Therefore, the impact of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate on the regional economy has attracted much attention under this exchange rate situation. Hebei Province, as a big foreign trade province, has made great progress in foreign trade in recent years, both in terms of total volume and growth rate. However, compared with developed provinces such as Guangzhou and Shandong, There is still a considerable gap. Under the background of the deepening degree of export-oriented economy, the dependence on foreign trade of Hebei Province, which relies on mechanical and electrical products, high-tech products, steel products, pharmaceutical products and so on, is also increasing year by year. To study the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation on the export of Hebei Province, and to optimize the export commodity structure of Hebei Province, It is very important to promote the development of export trade and even to promote the overall economy of Hebei Province. Firstly, this paper briefly reviews the literature review and theoretical review related to the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on import and export trade. Then it studies the relationship between the appreciation of RMB exchange rate and the change of export trade in Hebei Province. Considering that the effect of exchange rate appreciation on different export countries of Hebei Province may be different, this paper chooses the European Union from the perspective of bilateral trade. Four of the most important export countries in Hebei Province, the United States, Japan and South Korea, as research objects, empirically analyzed the relationship between the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and Hebei's exports to the European Union, the United States, Japan and South Korea. The results show that there is a long-term, stable and balanced relationship between Hebei's exports and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will cause a certain impact on the export of Hebei Province in the short term. Finally, according to the results of the model, the relevant policy suggestions to promote the steady development of Hebei's export trade are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.8;F832.6;F224

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