物价稳定与房价:货币政策视角

发布时间：2018-03-09 13:36

本文选题：物价　切入点：房价　出处：《当代经济科学》2011年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：住房价格变化是货币政策需要关注的重要指标。本文在梳理现有文献的基础上,研究了物价稳定与房价变动的关系,发现房价是物价变动的重要原因,而M1和贷款利率是房价变动的格兰杰原因。通过进一步建立结构性VAR模型,我们发现房价受到贷款利率影响最大,而物价受到货币供应量的影响最大。针对房价与物价变动的三个场景可以采取不同的货币政策操作:1、房价过快增长,物价保持稳定。此时为了避免房价对未来物价的冲击,又不影响到当前物价的稳定,可以提高贷款利率,并保持相对宽松的货币供给以对冲房价下跌对物价的不利影响,达到抑制房价而不影响物价的效果。2、房价和物价双双过快增长。此时,应调整贷款利率、准备金率和货币供应量,三管齐下加以治理。3、物价过快增长,而房价较为稳定。为了避免打压房价,可以不调整贷款利率、准备金率,仅控制货币供应量。
[Abstract]:The change of housing price is an important index which should be paid attention to in monetary policy. On the basis of combing the existing literature, this paper studies the relationship between price stability and house price change, and finds that house price is an important reason for price change. And M1 and loan interest rates are Granger's reasons for housing price changes. By further establishing a structural VAR model, we find that housing prices are the most affected by loan interest rates. And prices are the most affected by the money supply. In view of the three scenarios of house prices and price changes, different monetary policy operations can be taken: 1. Housing prices increase too fast and prices remain stable. At this time, in order to avoid the impact of house prices on future prices, Without affecting the stability of current prices, it can raise interest rates on loans and maintain a relatively loose money supply to hedge against the adverse effects of falling house prices on prices. To achieve the effect of restraining house prices without affecting prices, housing prices and prices both grow too fast. At this time, we should adjust the interest rate on loans, the reserve ratio and the money supply, and take measures to control the price of goods in a three-pronged manner, and increase prices too fast. In order to avoid depressing house prices, we can not adjust the loan interest rate, reserve ratio, and only control the money supply.
【作者单位】：人民银行南京分行金融研究处;
【分类号】：F726;F293.3;F822.0

【参考文献】