通货膨胀的决定因素:中国的经验研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 16:17

本文选题：中国通胀　切入点：通胀惯性　出处：《上海金融》2011年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文采用两阶段最小二乘法(TSLS)对中国通货膨胀的决定因素进行了实证研究。文章发现:在样本期内,通胀惯性是造成中国通胀的最大影响因素,GDP过快增长是第二大导因,流动性过剩虽然也促成通胀,但是其不具决定影响;股票市场财富效应对通胀的影响非常小;国际食品价格上升对中国物价有统计上显著但不是很大的推升作用,而国际能源涨价显著地推高PPI但对CPI的影响统计上不显著。此外,人民币实际有效汇率升值能够降低通胀,但是幅度不是很大。
[Abstract]:This paper makes an empirical study on the determinants of China's inflation by using the two-stage least square method (TSLS). It is found that in the sample period, inflation inertia is the biggest influencing factor of China's inflation. Too fast growth of GDP is the second leading factor. Although excess liquidity also contributes to inflation, it does not have a decisive effect; the wealth effect of the stock market has very little effect on inflation; and the rise in international food prices has a statistically significant but not very significant impact on prices in China. International energy price increases significantly push up PPI, but the impact on CPI is not statistically significant. In addition, RMB real effective exchange rate appreciation can reduce inflation, but not much.
【作者单位】：中山大学;辽宁大学;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究青年项目(09YJCGJW018),教育部哲学社会科学研究专项委托项目(09JF001) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(1109043-13200-1137103)
【分类号】：F822.5

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