国际短期资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响分析——基于VAR模型和脉冲响应函数的研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 20:18

本文选题：国际短期资本流动　切入点：货币政策有效性　出处：《审计与经济研究》2014年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：采用VAR模型和冲脉效应函数实证分析国际短期资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响分析,结果显示:货币供给量、利率和国际短期资本流动之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系;利率变动和货币供给之间反向变动;国际短期资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响已经显现,然而国际短期资本流动带来的货币供应量的上升被国家货币政策的调控所冲销,而且冲销力度过大;由于我国对资本流动进行管制,因此隐蔽性资本流动对货币政策效果目标的影响不明显;进出我国的国际短期资本的套利动机虽然不显著,但是国际短期资本流动和利率的关联性已经很强。最后,以实证结果为依据,提出相应对策建议。
[Abstract]:VAR model and impulse effect function are used to analyze the effect of international short-term capital flow on the effectiveness of monetary policy. The results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship among money supply, interest rate and international short-term capital flow. The influence of international short-term capital flow on the effectiveness of monetary policy has been shown, but the rise of money supply brought by international short-term capital flow has been offset by the regulation of national monetary policy. Moreover, the intensity of sterilisation is too strong; because China controls capital flows, the effect of hidden capital flows on monetary policy objectives is not obvious; although the arbitrage motivation of international short-term capital entering and leaving China is not significant, However, the correlation between international short-term capital flows and interest rates is already very strong. Finally, based on the empirical results, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【作者单位】：苏州大学商学院;苏州工业园区服务外包职业学院金融系;
【分类号】：F832.6

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