商业银行信贷周期对货币政策的影响

发布时间：2018-03-13 10:36

本文选题：经济周期　切入点：信贷周期　出处：《吉林财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：货币政策是国家对宏观经济进行调节与控制的重要政策，中央银行通过调节货币供应量来达到预期的货币政策目标。现实中货币政策影响商业银行信贷是毋庸置疑的，但是商业银行作为金融市场的主体，作为货币政策传导的媒介，在信贷周期中同样通过信贷行为来反作用于货币政策的实施。尤其是在我国以银行信用为代表的间接融资占据主导地位，商业银行在国民经济运行中处于特殊地位，研究商业银行的信贷周期对货币政策的影响显得尤为重要。在信贷周期涨跌交错的同时，我国的货币政策也随之变化着。商业银行信贷周期影响货币政策的途径包括：其一，商业银行通过超额存款准备金的调整，在一定程度上抵消了部分甚至全部法定存款准备金率调整的作用，从而使得货币政策效果降低；其二，我国商业银行单一的盈利模式限制了中央银行在货币政策工具选择上的灵活性，束缚了我国货币政策的有效实施；其三，，东西部信贷配给的非均衡、在信贷对象上的配给非均衡导致我国货币政策的实施在不同区域、不同经济周期下产生不同的效果。通过对经济波动变量GDP增长率和信贷周期波动变量信贷余额增长率的模型分析得出二者正相关的结论，尤其在信贷紧缩时期，信贷增速对于GDP的贡献更加显著，这也能解释在经济复苏时期增加信贷对经济发展有较大的刺激作用。针对信贷周期下我国货币政策实施的弱化状况，中央银行、商业银行、金融监管、金融市场改革等方面多角度多管齐下，具体包括改进中央银行制定货币政策方式、货币政策工具选择的多样化、完善商业银行信贷结构和强化信贷质量、推进金融市场改革以及加强金融监管等。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy is an important policy for the country to regulate and control the macro-economy. The central bank achieves the expected monetary policy goal by regulating the money supply. In reality, the monetary policy affects the credit of commercial banks without doubt. However, as the main body of the financial market and as a medium for the transmission of monetary policy, commercial banks, In the credit cycle, it also counteracts to the implementation of monetary policy through credit behavior. Especially in China, indirect financing represented by bank credit occupies a dominant position, and commercial banks are in a special position in the operation of the national economy. It is particularly important to study the impact of the credit cycle of commercial banks on monetary policy. With the interlocking of credit cycles, China's monetary policy is also changing. The ways that the credit cycle of commercial banks affect monetary policy include: first, commercial banks adjust their reserves through excess deposits. To some extent, the effect of the adjustment of some or even all of the statutory reserve requirements has been offset, thus reducing the effect of monetary policy; second, The single profit model of commercial banks in China limits the flexibility of the central bank in the choice of monetary policy tools, and constrains the effective implementation of monetary policy in China. Third, the disequilibrium of credit rationing between the east and the west, The disequilibrium of rationing in credit objects leads to different effects of monetary policy in different regions and different economic cycles. Through the model analysis of the economic fluctuation variable GDP growth rate and the credit cycle fluctuation variable credit balance growth rate, we draw the conclusion that they are positively correlated, especially in the credit crunch period, the contribution of credit growth rate to GDP is more significant. This can also explain the economic recovery during the increase in credit has a greater stimulus to economic development. In view of the weakening situation of the implementation of monetary policy in China under the credit cycle, the central bank, commercial banks, financial supervision, financial market reform, and so on, are multi-pronged and multi-pronged, including improving the way the central bank formulates monetary policy. The diversification of monetary policy tools, the perfection of commercial bank credit structure and the strengthening of credit quality, the promotion of financial market reform and the strengthening of financial supervision.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.4;F822.0

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