人民币实际有效汇率和FDI对中国贸易结构的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 18:05

本文选题：贸易结构　切入点：汇率　出处：《华侨大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来随着中国对外贸易的迅速发展，相对于对外贸易的“量”来讲，对外贸易的“质”，即贸易结构受到越来越多的关注。初级产品的贸易额占总贸易额的比重逐年下降，工业制成品的比重持续上升，贸易结构不断优化。特别是2005年汇率改革之后，以及西方国家的压力下，人民币升值，受此影响，中国的贸易结构发生着深刻的变化。与此同时，流入中国的FDI也连年上升，其流向的产业对中国的产业结构从而对贸易结构也产生了深远的影响。良好的贸易结构对中国经济健康发展的作用是巨大的，然而影响一国贸易结构因素是十分复杂的。在理论研究中，人民币汇率、FDI和贸易结构是经济研究领域内的热点问题，本文创造性地将三者结合起来，对商品按SITC产业分类，利用1981-2011年间的人民币实际有效汇率、FDI、贸易结构的数据，通过运用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型对它们之间的关系进行了深入的探讨，结果显示：在短期内，人民币升值和FDI流入量的增长对中国贸易结构的作用是负面的；而从长期来看人民币升值导致工业制成品出口占总出口的比值降低，而技术密集型产品出口占工业制成品的比重上升，并且人民币升值使技术密集型产品占工业制成品的比值上升的幅度大于工业制成品占总出口的减少幅度，所以人民币升值能改善贸易结构。FDI对贸易结构的影响和汇率正好相反，FDI的增长能提高工业制成品出口的比重，但引起技术密集型产品出口占工业制成品出口比重的下降，因为引入的FDI技术含量不高，，大部分流入到工业制成品领域中的劳动密集型产业，所以FDI对贸易结构的作用更依赖于政策的引导。本文对人民币实际有效汇率、FDI和贸易结构的关系进行了规范分析和实证分析，并根据得出的结论给出了几点政策建议，为中国汇率政策、招商引资政策和贸易政策提供了借签意义。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's foreign trade in recent years, relative to the "quantity" of foreign trade, the "quality" of foreign trade, that is, the structure of trade, has received more and more attention. The proportion of manufactured goods continues to rise and the trade structure is constantly optimized. Especially after the exchange rate reform in 2005, and under the pressure of the western countries, China's trade structure has undergone profound changes. The inflow of FDI into China has also increased year after year, and the industry flowing into China has had a profound impact on the structure of China's industry and thus on the structure of trade. A good trade structure plays a great role in the healthy development of China's economy, but the factors that affect a country's trade structure are very complicated. In the theoretical research, RMB exchange rate FDI and trade structure are hot issues in the field of economic research. This paper creatively combines the three, classifies the goods according to the SITC industry, using the data of the real effective exchange rate of RMB from 1981 to 2011, using the data of the trade structure, using the unit root test and cointegration test. The error correction model deeply discusses the relationship between them. The results show that the appreciation of RMB and the increase of FDI inflow have negative effects on China's trade structure in the short term; In the long run, the appreciation of the RMB has led to a decrease in the ratio of manufactured goods exports to total exports, while the share of technology-intensive products in industrial manufactured goods has increased. Moreover, the appreciation of the RMB has increased the ratio of technology-intensive products to manufactured goods by a larger margin than the ratio of manufactured products to total exports. Therefore, RMB appreciation can improve the trade structure. The impact of FDI on the trade structure and the exchange rate. On the contrary, the growth of FDI can increase the proportion of manufactured goods exports, but it leads to a decrease in the share of technology-intensive products exports in industrial manufactured exports. Because the introduction of FDI technology content is not high, most of the labor-intensive industries in the field of manufactured goods, so the role of FDI on the trade structure is more dependent on policy guidance. This paper makes a normative analysis and empirical analysis on the relationship between FDI and trade structure of RMB real effective exchange rate, and gives some policy suggestions on the basis of the conclusions, which are China's exchange rate policy. The investment policy and trade policy provide the meaning of borrowing and signing.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752;F832.6

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