香港联系汇率制度的悖论分析

发布时间：2018-03-16 05:34

本文选题：港币　切入点：联系汇率制度　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：香港是当前世界上成功实施联系汇率制度的典型国家之一。相对于其他采用联系汇率制度的国家,联系汇率制度不仅在香港具有更长的实施历史,并且从经济促进和危机防御的角度,联系汇率制度在香港的实施也取得了更加稳定和显著的效果。本文从联系汇率制度下香港经济的特殊性出发,通过统计数据的处理和展现,分析联系汇率制度对于香港经济促进作用。同时本文也关注联系汇率制度本身的局限性。在分析联系汇率制度的局限性时,本文结合香港经济的特殊性,尤其是香港一般商品价格和房产价格易受到两种不同外部因素影响的性质,提出联系汇率制度下的“港币悖论”。本文一方面通过相关性分析,来探索这两种不同因素对于香港价格的传导机制,另一方面剖析港币悖论产生的条件和影响机制,以一个较为新颖的分析框架阐述香港联系汇率制度在特定经济环境下的风险。联系汇率制度可以促进香港的贸易和资本流动,增进香港的产业结构转型,改善市场的自由化和透明性,以及增加政府的政策信用度。然而联系汇率制度也是把双刃剑,在其各种优点的背后也不断突显出一些问题,如货币政策僵化、物价高企和外债规模扩大等等。当然,联系汇率制度的局限性不止这些。尽管香港的政治地位、经济规模和综合实力较低,然而其经济金融开放程度非常大,并且香港拥有国际金融中心的地位,使得香港不再是传统意义上的小国。另外,香港和中国内地之间紧密的贸易联系使得香港对美国的依附性并不如传统意义上的那么高。这些特点增加了香港经济的复杂性以及政策目标选择的多重性。本文认为香港经济的特殊性和复杂性可能在一定条件下造成联系汇率制度的崩溃。从港币悖论的分析角度来看,当前香港汇率制度的一些替代方案都有一定的问题。未来如果人民币实现自由兑换,并在国际货币体系中占据一定地位,港币和人民币挂钩是非常理想的。但是在此之前的过渡阶段,本文提出采用以50%的权重分别钉住人民币和美元的固定汇率制度,作为一种可行的替代方案。
[Abstract]:Hong Kong is one of the most successful countries in the world to successfully implement the linked exchange rate system. Compared with other countries adopting the linked exchange rate system, the linked exchange rate system not only has a longer history of implementation in Hong Kong, From the point of view of economic promotion and crisis prevention, the linked exchange rate system has achieved a more stable and remarkable effect in Hong Kong. Starting from the particularity of Hong Kong's economy under the linked exchange rate system, this paper deals with and demonstrates the statistical data. This paper analyzes the role of the linked exchange rate system in promoting Hong Kong's economy. At the same time, this paper also pays attention to the limitations of the linked exchange rate system itself. When analyzing the limitations of the linked exchange rate system, this paper combines the particularity of Hong Kong's economy. In particular, Hong Kong's general commodity prices and property prices are easily affected by two different external factors. This paper puts forward the "Hong Kong dollar paradox" under the linked exchange rate system. To explore the transmission mechanism of these two different factors to Hong Kong price, on the other hand, to analyze the conditions and influence mechanism of the Hong Kong dollar paradox, and to expound the risk of Hong Kong linked exchange rate system under the specific economic environment with a relatively new analytical framework. The linked exchange rate system can facilitate Hong Kong's trade and capital flows, enhance Hong Kong's industrial restructuring, improve market liberalization and transparency, and increase the credibility of government policies. However, the linked exchange rate system is also a double-edged sword. Behind its many advantages are problems such as rigid monetary policy, high prices and the expansion of foreign debt. Of course, the limitations of the linked exchange rate system go beyond this. Although Hong Kong's political status, economic scale and overall strength are relatively low, its economic and financial openness is very large, and Hong Kong has the status of an international financial center. Make Hong Kong no longer a small country in the traditional sense. The close trade ties between Hong Kong and the mainland of China make Hong Kong less dependent on the United States than in the traditional sense. These characteristics increase the complexity of Hong Kong's economy and the multiplicity of policy objectives. It is believed that the particularity and complexity of Hong Kong's economy may lead to the collapse of the linked exchange rate system under certain conditions. From the perspective of the paradox of the Hong Kong dollar, there are certain problems with some alternatives to the current Hong Kong exchange rate regime. In the future, if the RMB is freely convertible and occupies a certain position in the international monetary system, It is ideal to peg the Hong Kong dollar to the RMB, but in the interim period, this paper proposes to use the fixed exchange rate system with a weight of 50% to peg the RMB and the US dollar, respectively, as a feasible alternative.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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