“控通胀”还是“保增长”——我国货币政策非线性反应规则研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 07:33

本文选题：非线性货币政策　切入点：产出　出处：《管理评论》2014年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文结合我国货币政策特点,建立了非线性最优货币政策选择模型,对我国货币政策与通胀和产出变动之间的非线性反应规则进行了研究。然后分别在将通胀率和产出增速作为门限变量的前提下,利用门限回归模型对我国货币政策的变化进行实证研究和对比,验证了我国货币政策非线性特征的存在,并最终将产出增速确定为门限变量。进而,采用逐段回归方法,分别在不同的产出增速区间得到了货币政策对通胀和产出增长的非线性反应形式。本文的实证结果表明,2010年1月到2012年6月间,我国货币政策规则转化的产出增速门限分别为13.2942%和17.9923%,由此将转化区间划分为低增长、温和增长和高增长三个区间。在低增长和高增长时期,央行的利率调节更直接的体现为对实际产出变动的响应,在温和增长区域,更趋向于对通胀水平的调节。此外,相对于低增长区域,高增长区域中产出增速对利率的影响显著性更高,但影响程度却较小,体现了我国货币政策调节的非对称性。
[Abstract]:Based on the characteristics of monetary policy in China, a nonlinear optimal monetary policy choice model is established in this paper. This paper studies the nonlinear response rules between monetary policy and inflation and output changes in China, and then takes inflation and output growth as threshold variables, respectively. The threshold regression model is used to study and contrast the change of monetary policy in China, which verifies the existence of nonlinear characteristics of monetary policy in China, and finally determines the output growth rate as threshold variable. Then, the piecewise regression method is adopted. The nonlinear response of monetary policy to inflation and output growth is obtained in different output growth ranges. The empirical results of this paper show that, between January 2010 and June 2012, The threshold of output growth rate for the transformation of monetary policy rules in China is 13.2942% and 17.9923, respectively. Thus, the transformation range is divided into three regions: low growth, moderate growth and high growth. The central bank's interest rate adjustment is more directly reflected in its response to changes in real output, and in moderate growth regions it tends to adjust to inflation levels. The effect of output growth on interest rate is more significant but less significant in high growth region which reflects the asymmetry of monetary policy regulation in China.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学商学院;清华大学公共管理学院;南开大学经济学院;中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目(31702156) 教育部人文社科青年项目(10YJC790196) 北京市教委青年英才计划、中央专项基本科研业务费项目(NKZXB10033)
【分类号】：F224;F822.0

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