人民币汇率对外商直接投资的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 19:30

本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：外商直接投资　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着世界一体化趋势逐渐加深,中国逐渐放松了对外资流动的管制,外商直接投资(FDI)流入方式与渠道开始逐渐多样化,汇率等影响FDI流动的金融因素的重要性日益凸现。应该注意到,自从2005年中国汇率制度改革以来,人民币汇率也在逐步调整。因此,很有必要探究人民币汇率变动对我国外商直接投资的影响。本文首先对人民币汇率制度和汇率水平做了详细的分析,并在对FDI机制的理论分析的基础上,运用VAR模型、协整理论、格兰杰因果关系检验等分析方法,分别从总体上和区域上分析了我国FDI流入量与人民币汇率、汇率波动之间的长期稳定关系和短期动态非均衡关系。实证结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率在长期内的升值,会导致外商直接投资的减少,而汇率水平的波动对外商直接投资没有直接影响。基于上述分析结果看,中国在对外商直接投资方面,应该积极支持、充分引导外资,规范汇率制度和引资制度,为吸引外资创造良好的市场环境。另一方面,进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制,维持人民币汇率的稳定性,提高人民币在国际市场上的影响力。本文最后根据我国外商直接投资的特点和实证检验的结论,提出了今后我国吸引外商直接投资的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the trend of world integration, China has gradually relaxed its control on the flow of foreign capital, and the ways and channels of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have been gradually diversified. The importance of financial factors, such as exchange rates, affecting FDI flows is becoming increasingly prominent. It should be noted that since the reform of China's exchange rate system in 2005, the RMB exchange rate has also been gradually adjusted. It is necessary to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on foreign direct investment in China. This paper first makes a detailed analysis of RMB exchange rate regime and exchange rate level, and on the basis of theoretical analysis of FDI mechanism, uses VAR model, co-integration theory, Granger causality test and other analytical methods. This paper analyzes the long-term stable relationship and short-term dynamic disequilibrium relationship between China's FDI inflow and RMB exchange rate and exchange rate fluctuation respectively. The empirical results show that the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB in the long term will lead to the decrease of foreign direct investment, but the fluctuation of exchange rate level has no direct impact on foreign direct investment. Based on the results of the above analysis, China should actively support foreign direct investment, fully guide foreign investment, standardize the exchange rate system and foreign investment system, and create a good market environment for attracting foreign investment. Further improve the mechanism of RMB exchange rate formation, maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate, and enhance the influence of RMB on the international market. Finally, according to the characteristics of China's foreign direct investment and the conclusion of empirical test, Put forward the policy suggestion of attracting foreign direct investment in our country in the future.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

【引证文献】