我国短期国际资本流入及其影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 04:31

本文选题：短期国际资本　切入点：资本流动　出处：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代以来,全球信息技术不断发展,交易机制也逐渐完善,国际资本流动的规模和速度不断扩大。其中,短期国际资本流动的扩张尤为显著,特别是1997年亚洲金融危机爆发之后,它日益强大的影响力和破坏力引起了学者的广泛注意。进入新世纪,我国稳健增长的宏观经济环境吸引了大规模的短期国际资本流入。此后,2008年爆发的全球金融危机和2010年开始的欧债危机使全球经济金融形势愈发复杂,我国的短期国际资本流动也呈现双向波动的态势。在对外开放过程中,我国遭受短期资本冲击的可能性和危害性不断加大。所以,对我国短期国际资本流入及其影响的情况进行研究是有理论和现实意义的。本文采用理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,在充分研究资本流动理论的基础上,通过国际收支平衡表及其他相关数据估算出近年来我国短期国际资本流动的方向、规模和趋势,并对短期资本流动的影响因素进行了实证分析,结果显示人民币汇率预期、宏观经济状况、中美利率差异以及美元指数强弱会对我国短期国际资本流动产生影响。此外,本文还使用图表数据和实证分析的方法深入探讨短期国际资本流入对我国经济带来的正面和负面影响,结果表明短期国际资本对我国经济发展带来了一些积极影响,包括提供短期资金来源、促进金融深化等,但是同时弱化了我国货币政策的独立性,对股票市场、房地产市场和外汇市场带来了冲击。最后,结合研究结论和实际情况,本文试图提出一些有益的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, with the continuous development of global information technology, the trading mechanism has been gradually improved, and the scale and speed of international capital flows have been continuously expanding. Among them, the expansion of short-term international capital flows is particularly significant. Especially after the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, its increasingly powerful influence and destructive power attracted wide attention of scholars. In the new century, China's steady growth macroeconomic environment has attracted a large number of short-term international capital inflows. Since then, the global financial situation has become more complicated by the global financial crisis that broke out in 2008 and the European debt crisis that began in 2010. In the process of opening up to the outside world, the possibility and harmfulness of short-term capital shock in China is increasing. It is of theoretical and practical significance to study the short-term international capital inflow and its influence in China. Based on the study of capital flow theory, this paper estimates the direction of short-term international capital flow in China in recent years by means of balance of payments and other relevant data. The scale and trend, and the influencing factors of short-term capital flow are analyzed. The results show that the expectation of RMB exchange rate, the macroeconomic situation, the difference of interest rate between China and the United States, and the strength of US dollar index will affect the short-term international capital flow of our country. In addition, the paper also uses the method of chart data and empirical analysis to probe into the positive and negative effects of short-term international capital inflows on China's economy. The results show that short-term international capital has brought some positive effects on the economic development of China. Including providing short-term sources of funds and promoting financial deepening, but weakening the independence of China's monetary policy at the same time, which has impacted the stock market, the real estate market and the foreign exchange market. Finally, combined with the conclusions of the study and the actual situation, This paper tries to put forward some useful policy suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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