中国制造业对外贸易发展进程中的汇率风险研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 19:40

本文选题：中国制造业　切入点：制造业进出口　出处：《天津财经大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为影响—国内外经济均衡的重要变量,汇率对一国对外贸易的影响一直是国内外学者研究的重要领域之一。1994年中国实施了人民币汇率制度改革,建立了单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制度。汇改后,随着中国经济持续快速的增长,进出口贸易额不断攀升,许多西方国家及利益集团认为人民币存在严重低估,纷纷要求人民币升值。2005年7月21日,中国人民银行宣布实行“以市场供求为基础的、参考一篮子货币汇率进行调节的、有管理的浮动汇率制”。此后,人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元,汇率水平波幅放宽、波动性增强,表现出持续升值的状态。截止到2012年10月末,人民币兑美元汇率为6.30,相比2005年7月汇改之初已累计升值超过30%。有关人民币汇率对中国对外贸易的影响研究在国内外持续升温。在国民经济的各部门中,制造业是一个开放程度高,受汇率波动影响最直接的部门。自改革开放以来,中国制造业充分发挥比较优势,对外贸易得到迅猛发展,2010年成为仅次于美国的全球第二大工业制造国。然而近年来由于受到人民币汇率持续升值的影响,制造业出口企业的利润不断被侵蚀,与此同时由于人民币汇率弹性增强、浮动范围不断扩大,制造业企业面临的汇率风险也日益增大,因此有必要深入研究人民币汇率变动对中国制造业的影响。已有文献多从汇率水平、汇率波动风险对进出口贸易展开分析,考虑到目前人民币升值预期不断加大的背景,论文将从人民币汇率水平、汇率波动及汇率预期三方面的变动来探讨汇率风险对中国制造业对外贸易的长、短期影响,不仅关注贸易总量、细分行业的变化,同时也关注制造业进出口结构的动态变化。论文的研究有助于了解汇率风险对各行业的影响广度和影响深度,为实践中产业结构的优化和调整提供理论依据,进而引导制造业改变要素供给优势、实现升级优化。论文分为6章。第1章为导论。在阐述选题背景和研究意义的基础上,对相关理论和文献综述进行回顾,并介绍了论文研究思路及主要内容,最后指出本文的创新与不足之处。第2章基于比较优势视角分析中国制造业的发展状况。分析结果表明,中国最具出口比较优势的制造业产品仍主要集中在劳动密集型产品,虽近年来该类产品的显示性比较优势指数出现下降,但其比较优势仍十分明显。部分高科技含量的制成品在世界市场上也具有一定的比较优势,有些产品还表现出较强或显著的比较优势。总体而言,中国制造业比较优势更多地表现在劳动力要素方面,要素禀赋的升级一定程度上推动了贸易结构的优化。第3章主要分析开放经济下制造业面临的汇率风险。在对趋近比较优势的人民币汇率制度变迁分析的基础上,采用巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应对人民币汇率变化与制造业的关系进行经验分析,结果表明制造业相对劳动生产率的提高在长期内会加大人民币实际汇率升值的压力,巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应在中国是成立的。本章对人民币汇率风险进行了估计,并指出由于人民币升值过程中波动幅度的不断加大,其所带来的汇率风险也日益对制造业的对外贸易产生较大影响。第4章主要对人民币汇率风险与制造业出口的动态关系进行实证分析。基于消费者和制造业出口厂商行为,从微观层面构建了中国制造业出口理论模型,并从汇率不确定性角度引入汇率波动风险和汇率预期。在具体分析中,采用误差修正模型考察了人民币汇率风险对制造业总出口、细分行业出口以及出口结构等方面的长、短期影响。结果表明：在长期中人民币汇率水平变动和汇率波动风险对制造业总出口均产生显著的负向影响,而人民币汇率预期则对制造业的总出口产生显著的促进作用,由此抵消了由汇率升值带来的出口下降效应。从短期来看,汇率风险未对制造业出口表现出显著负向影响。对于不同行业出口来说,无论长期还是短期,人民币汇率水平、汇率风险及汇率预期的影响存在较大差异。从综合影响来看,劳动密集型产品的出口受到的影响要比资本密集型产品的出口相对大一止匕第5章主要对人民币汇率风险与制造业进口的动态关系进行实证分析。首先从进口需求和进口供给两方面构建了制造业进口理论模型,在此基础上对人民币汇率风险对制造业总进口、细分行业以及进口结构的长、短期影响进行估计。结果显示：人民币汇率升值、汇率波动风险的增强以及汇率升值预期的增加在长时期内均会对制造业的总进口产生显著的负向影响,而在短期内,人民币汇率及人民币汇率预期对制造业总进口的影响存在不确定性,汇率波动风险短期内未表现出显著负效应。另外,汇率升值以及汇率波动风险对劳动密集型产品进口的负向影响要略大于资本技术密集型产品的进口。对比第四章结果,人民币汇率水平变动对中国制造业出口和进口的影响存在明显的同向性,汇率波动风险大部分时候对进出口表现出负向影响,汇率升值预期对进出口影响方向不一致。第6章为主要结论及政策建议。本章对论文的主要观点、结论等进行了全面总结,在此基础上探讨了制造业在适应比较优势的基础上如何推动对外贸易的发展,并就如何进行汇率风险防范和管理,提出相应的政策建议与对策。论文的创新工作主要体现在： (1)论文在探讨中国制造业发展和人民币汇率关系的基础上,基于比较优势,从汇率风险的视角研究了其对中国制造业对外贸易的影响,间接讨论了汇率风险对制造业发展的影响,相对来说这是一个新的视角。(2)在分析汇率风险对制造业对外贸易影响时,基于消费者和厂商行为的微观视角分别构造了进出口理论模型,并拓展了影响进出口厂商行为的变量。不仅研究以往文献中所考虑的汇率水平和汇率波动性风险变量,同时还将人民币汇率预期所带来的风险也纳入到模型中。(3)从不同层次全面、系统地研究了制造业进出口与汇率风险等相关变量的动态关系,并认为汇率预期的引入有助于增强对现实经济的解释力。
[Abstract]:As the influence of domestic economic balance of the important variables, the exchange rate impact on a country's foreign trade has been one of the important areas of research scholars at home and abroad.1994 Chinese implementation of the RMB exchange rate system reform, established a single, managed floating exchange rate system. After the reform, with China sustained and rapid economic growth, import export trade volume continues to rise, many western countries and interest groups that the RMB underestimated RMB appreciation, have.2005 year in July 21st, the people's Bank of China announced "based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, exchange rate adjustment, managed floating exchange rate system". Since then, the RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged to the US dollar that exchange rate volatility relaxed, volatility increased, showing the continued appreciation of the state. As of 10 at the end of 2012, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate is 6.30, phase The study on the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's foreign trade has been warming up at home and abroad compared with the cumulative appreciation of more than 30%. at the beginning of the July 2005 remittance reform.
In the various sectors of the national economy, manufacturing industry is a high degree of openness, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations of the most direct department. Since the reform and opening up, Chinese manufacturing give full play to the comparative advantage of foreign trade has been developing rapidly, in 2010 after the United States to become the world's second largest manufacturing country. However, in recent years due to the impact of the RMB the exchange rate continued to rise, manufacturing export profits eroded at the same time, due to the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate floating increased, expanding the scope of manufacturing enterprises are facing the exchange rate risk is also increasing, so it is necessary to study the impact of RMB exchange rate changes to China manufacturing industry. The existing literature from the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate fluctuation risk analysis of import and export trade, taking into account the RMB appreciation is expected to continue to increase in the background, this paper from the level of RMB exchange rate, exchange rate The fluctuation of exchange rate expectations and three aspects to explore the changes of exchange rate risk on the China manufacturing foreign trade long, short-term impact, not only pay attention to the trade volume, changes in industry segments, but also concerned about the dynamic changes of the manufacturing industry import and export structure. The research is helpful to understand the exchange rate risk of the impact of the industry scope and influence depth, provide a theoretical basis for the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure in practice, and then guide the manufacturing industry to change the supply of factors of advantage, realize the optimization and upgrading.
The paper is divided into 6 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. Based on the background and significance of the topic selection, the related theories and literature review are reviewed, and the research ideas and main contents of the paper are introduced. Finally, the innovation and shortcomings of this paper are pointed out.
The second chapter is based on the analysis of development condition Chinese comparative advantage in manufacturing industry perspective. The analysis results show that the China most comparative advantage in the export of manufactured products are still mainly concentrated in labor-intensive products, although in recent years the products showed the decline of comparative advantage index, but its comparative advantage is still very obvious. Some high-tech manufactured goods also has a comparative advantage in the world market, some products also showed a strong comparative advantage or significant. Overall, the comparative advantage of China manufacturing more performance in the labor factor, factor endowments have promoted the upgrading of trade structure optimization.
The third chapter mainly analyzes the facing manufacturing industry under open economy. The exchange rate risk analysis based on the RMB exchange rate system on the approach of comparative advantage, the relationship between Pakistan Lhasa - Samuelson effect on the RMB exchange rate changes and the manufacturing industry empirical analysis, results show that manufacturing relative labor productivity will increase the real exchange rate of RMB appreciation the pressure in the long term, Lhasa Pakistan - Samuelson effect is established in China. This chapter of the RMB exchange rate risk estimate, and points out that the fluctuation of RMB appreciation in the process of increasing the exchange rate risk also have a greater impact on the manufacturing industry is foreign trade.
An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between the fourth chapter of the RMB exchange rate risk and manufacturing exports. Consumer and manufacturing export based manufacturers, China manufacturing export theory model is constructed from the micro level, and the introduction of exchange rate volatility and exchange rate expectations from the perspective of exchange rate uncertainty. In the specific analysis, the error effects of total exports the RMB exchange rate risk of manufacturing industry segments correction model, export and export structure of the long, short-term effect. The results showed that the total exports in the long term RMB exchange rate level changes and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations on the manufacturing industry all has a significant negative effect, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to manufacturing industry total exports have a significant this role was offset by the appreciation of the exchange rate effect. The decline in exports in the short term, the exchange rate risk of manufacturing exports not shown significantly The negative effect of export. For different industries, regardless of long term or short term, the RMB exchange rate level, there is a big difference between the impact of exchange rate risk and exchange rate expectations. From the comprehensive effect, labor intensive products exports have been affected than capital intensive exports is relatively bigger than the fomer
An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between the fifth chapter of the RMB exchange rate risk and manufacturing imports from two aspects. Firstly, the demand for imports and import supply and build manufacturing import model, on the basis of the RMB exchange rate risk of manufacturing industry segments and total imports, the import structure of long, short term effects were estimated. The results showed: the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, increase the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and exchange rate appreciation is expected to increase in the long period of time will total imports to the manufacturing industry has a significant negative effect, but in the short term, the RMB exchange rate and RMB exchange rate is expected to affect the total import of manufacturing uncertainties, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in the short term does not show the significant negative effect. In addition, the exchange rate appreciation and exchange rate volatility on labor-intensive products import negative effect is slightly larger than the capital and technology intensive production Comparing the fourth chapter, the result shows that the impact of RMB exchange rate level on the export and import of Chinese manufacturing industry is obvious. The risk of exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on import and export most of the time, and the expectation of exchange rate appreciation is not consistent with the direction of import and export.
The sixth chapter is the main conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter of the main viewpoints of the paper, the conclusion is summarized, on the basis of the manufacturing industry in the comparative advantages on the basis of how to promote the development of foreign trade, and how to prevent and control the risk of exchange rate policy, put forward corresponding suggestions and countermeasures.
The innovative work of the paper is mainly reflected in the following:
(1) based on the study Chinese manufacturing industry development and the relationship between the RMB exchange rate, exchange rate risk based on comparative advantage, from the perspective of its impact on the Chinese manufacturing industry of foreign trade, discusses the indirect impact of exchange rate risk to the development of manufacturing industry, this is a relatively new perspective. (2) the analysis of the impact of foreign trade exchange rate risk for the manufacturing industry, the micro perspective of consumers and manufacturers are constructed based on the import and export model, and expand the influence of the import and export manufacturer behavior variables. Not only studies in literature by considering the exchange rate and exchange rate volatility risk variables, and will also be expected to RMB exchange rate risk is brought into the model. (3) comprehensively from different levels, systematically study the manufacturing industry import and export and exchange rate risk dynamic relationship between relevant variables, and that the expected exchange rate It helps to increase the explanatory power to the real economy.

【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.6;F832.6;F224

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