G-3汇率波动对中国商品价格影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-20 15:45

本文选题：G-汇率波动　切入点：进口商品价格　出处：《山东社会科学》2011年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：稳定的G-3汇率对发展中国家意味着更加稳定的贸易条件。如果G-3汇率频繁波动,将会降低发展中国家和地区投资者信心,引发国内通货膨胀,降低该国的国际竞争力。作为发展中国家的中国,自2005年汇率制度改革、人民币名义汇率逐步上升以来,大量外汇不断涌入,不仅提高了出口商品的价格,降低了出口企业的国际竞争力,而且助推了国内通货膨胀。本文基于真实汇率增长率标准差的汇率波动测度模型,计算出G-3汇率波动对中国进口商品和国内物价的影响。结果表明:日元/美元汇率波动对中国进口商品价格和国内物价水平均存在显著影响,而欧元/美元汇率波动对中国商品价格的影响并不显著。
[Abstract]:A stable G-3 exchange rate means more stable terms of trade for developing countries. If the G-3 exchange rate fluctuates frequently, it will reduce investor confidence in developing countries and regions and trigger domestic inflation. Reducing the country's international competitiveness. As a developing country, since the exchange rate reform in 2005 and the gradual rise in the nominal exchange rate of the RMB, a large amount of foreign exchange has been pouring in, which has not only raised the prices of export commodities, It reduces the international competitiveness of export enterprises and boosts domestic inflation. This paper is based on the measurement model of exchange rate fluctuation based on the standard deviation of real exchange rate growth rate. The effect of G-3 exchange rate fluctuation on China's import commodities and domestic prices is calculated. The results show that the fluctuation of yen / US dollar exchange rate has a significant effect on both the price of imported goods and the domestic price level of China. But the euro / dollar exchange rate fluctuation to the Chinese commodity price influence is not remarkable.
【作者单位】：济南大学;山东理工大学;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目(项目编号:09BJL044)的部分成果
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62;F224

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