我国房地产泡沫对关联行业的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 00:05

本文选题：房地产泡沫　切入点：泡沫测度　出处：《南京大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：正如房地产行业对国民经济的作用越来越受重视一样,房地产价格泡沫的危险性也愈发引人关注。随着经济发展水平和金融发达程度的提高,房地产泡沫破裂所造成的损失规模也日益扩大、影响愈发深远。因此,为规避房地产泡沫风险,对房地产泡沫及其影响的深入研究就很有意义。本文对比了不同的房地产泡沫测度方法后选择基于理性预期和局部均衡的测度指标对我国的全局性和区域性房地产泡沫进行检测,对我国的房地产泡沫发展状况做了相对完整的研究；并在此基础上,本文进一步研究了房地产价格泡沫对关联行业的影响,通过实证检验得出结论并进行分析。本文得到的主要结论包括：我国房地产业存在相对可控的全局性价格泡沫而北京市、上海市、广东省、天津市、浙江省、福建省、海南省己出现严重的局部泡沫；不同省份的房地产泡沫程度差异很大,变动方式也很不同；土地价格是我国房地产泡沫的一个重要外部推动因素；房地产泡沫出现相对变动时,房地产企业本身、相关行业中的银行业、金属制造业的股票市场回报会发生了类似的显著变化,并与房地产行业本身回报的变动方向相反。根据以上研究结果,本文的房地产调控政策建议是：设定合理的宏观调控政策目标,审慎决定宏观调控的目标范围,理性选择宏观调控的政策工具,加强宏观房地产政策的地方落实,通过信贷调节把控房地产价格的泡沫风险传递。
[Abstract]:Just as the role of the real estate industry in the national economy is being paid more and more attention to, so is the danger of a real estate price bubble. As the level of economic development and financial development increases, The scale of the losses caused by the bursting of the real estate bubble is also increasing and the impact is becoming more far-reaching. Therefore, in order to avoid the risk of the real estate bubble, It is of great significance to study the real estate bubble and its influence. After comparing different real estate bubble measurement methods, this paper chooses the measurement index based on rational expectation and local equilibrium to our country's overall situation and regional premises. Producing foam for testing, This paper makes a relatively complete study on the development of real estate bubble in China, and on this basis, this paper further studies the impact of real estate price bubble on related industries. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: there is a relatively controllable global price bubble in China's real estate industry and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Fujian Province, There has been a serious local bubble in Hainan Province; the degree of real estate bubble in different provinces is very different, and the mode of change is also very different. Land prices are an important external driving factor of the real estate bubble in China. When the real estate bubble occurs relatively, The stock market returns of the real estate companies themselves, the banking industry and the metal manufacturing industry in the related industries have changed significantly in the same direction as the return of the real estate industry itself. The policy suggestions of real estate regulation and control in this paper are: setting reasonable macro-control policy objectives, prudently deciding the scope of macro-control objectives, rationally choosing the policy tools of macro-control, and strengthening the local implementation of macro-real estate policies. Through the credit regulation to control the real estate price bubble risk transmission.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4

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