收入、储蓄和城镇化对河北省农村居民消费影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-22 03:14

本文选题：收入　切入点：储蓄　出处：《河北经贸大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国长期依靠投资和出口保持经济的快速持续增长，作为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一消费其贡献率较低。近几年来，我国消费率持续走低，不仅低于世界平均水平，也低于低收入国家的平均水平。我国消费率低的情况已引起了中央政府的足够重视。温家宝总理在2009年政府工作报告中指出，积极扩大国内需求特别是消费需求，增强内需对经济增长的拉动作用，扩大内需尤其是居民消费。而农村居民消费不足是造成我国当前有效消费不足的重要因素之一。我国作为一个发展中国家，农村市场是最大和最基础的市场，其消费潜力巨大。在目前城镇居民消费相对饱和，，消费市场缺乏新热点的情况下，如何提高农村居民消费、启动农村消费市场，就显得极为重要。本文将以河北省农村居民的消费作为研究对象，运用消费经济学理论，利用定性和定量分析方法，对河北省农村居民的消费水平及消费结构及其影响因素进行分析，以期为启动河北省农村消费市场提供相应的理论和政策依据。本文由以下四部分构成：第一部分包括论文的第一章，介绍论文的研究背景和意义，综述国内外研究成果，提出研究方法和技术路线及研究的创新点与不足。第二部分包括论文的第二章和第三章，第二章首先介绍了有关居民消费的相关理论。第三章总体介绍河北省农村居民消费现状，从消费水平和消费结构两个角度来分析。第三部分包括第四章和第五章，是本文的核心部分。第四章通过建立消费函数模型，分析河北省农村居民消费影响因素，通过对数据进行分析，得出影响河北省农村居民消费的主要影响因素。第五章在第四章分析的基础之上，分别对三个主要影响因素进行实证分析。第四部分包括第六章，总结归纳前面各章的结论，在结论的基础之上，就如何提高农村居民的收入、完善农村社会保障体制、加快城镇化进程等方面提出了若干启动农村消费市场的建议。由当前河北省农村居民的实际消费状况，我们可以得知河北省农村居民消费现状不尽理想。随着农村居民人均可支配收入的增加，河北省的消费状况得到显著的改观，然而边际消费倾向却呈现不断下降的趋势。在影响河北省农村居民消费的诸多的因素中，收入、储蓄和城镇化三个因素对河北省农村居民消费具有明显的影响作用。其中收入是影响居民消费的基本因素。河北省农村居民的消费支出对现期收入的变化的较为敏感；河北省农村居民消费由收入中的持久收入部分决定；农村居民过去消费对当前消费的影响较为强烈。1978年以来，河北省农村居民的人均收入水平不断的得到提高，收入差距扩大趋势明显，这必然会对居民消费的快速增长产生消极的影响。另一方面由于不确定性的存在，致使河北省农村居民预防性储蓄动机较为强烈，居民的储蓄不再是消费后的剩余，而是一种有意识的主动的储蓄行为的结果，这一定程度上也影响了河北省居民消费的扩大。近年来，城镇化发展迅猛，但城镇化发展对农村居民消费的影响存在时滞，就影响了农村居民消费的扩张。为了提高河北省农村居民的消费水平，为河北省经济进一步发展创造供需基本平衡的条件，提出理论性建议：增加农村居民收入，调整收入分配关系；完善农村社会保障体系，提高农村居民消费预期；实行城乡一体化发展战略，加快城镇化进程。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's long-term dependence on investment and exports to maintain rapid economic growth, as one of the three carriages to promote economic growth in the consumption contribution rate is relatively low. In recent years, China's consumption rate continued to decline, not only lower than the world average level, also lower than the average level of low-income countries in China. The low rate of consumption situation has attracted enough attention from the central government. Premier Wen Jiabao in 2009 government work report pointed out, actively expand domestic demand especially consumer demand, boosting domestic demand to stimulate economic growth, expanding domestic demand, especially the consumption of residents. The inadequate consumption of the rural residents is one of the important factors causing the current effective the lack of consumption. As a developing country, the rural market is the largest and the most basic market and huge consumption potential. In the current consumption of urban residents is relatively saturated, the consumption of the city In the absence of new hot spots, how to improve the consumption of rural residents and start the rural consumer market is very important.
This paper will take the rural consumption in Hebei Province as the research object, using the theory of consumption economics, using qualitative and quantitative analysis method, the factors of rural residents in Hebei province's consumption level and consumption structure and its influence are analyzed, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the corresponding policy and start the rural consumption in Hebei province.
This paper consists of four parts: the first part includes the first chapter introduces the research background and significance, summarizes the domestic and foreign researches, puts forward the research method and technology route and research innovations and shortcomings. The second part includes the second chapter and the third chapter, the second chapter introduces the related theory of consumption the third chapter introduces the status quo of the overall consumption of rural residents in Hebei Province, analyzes from two aspects of consumption level and consumption structure. The third part includes the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the core part of this paper. The fourth chapter establishes the consumption function model, analysis of the factors affecting the consumption of rural residents in Hebei Province, through analyzing the data. It is concluded that the main influencing factors of consumption of rural residents in Hebei province. Based on the analysis of the fifth chapter in the fourth chapter, the three main factors for the empirical analysis. The fourth part includes the sixth chapter, summarizes the conclusions of the preceding chapters, and based on the conclusion, puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the rural residents' income, improve the rural social security system and speed up the process of urbanization.
From the current rural residents in Hebei province actual consumption situation, we can know the status of consumption of rural residents in Hebei province is not ideal. With the per capita disposable income of rural residents increased, the consumption of Hebei province situation has improved significantly, but the marginal propensity to consume is continuously decreased. Many factors affect income in rural consumption residents in Hebei Province, urbanization, savings and three factors have obvious effect on consumption of rural residents in Hebei province. The income is the basic factor affecting consumer. Was more sensitive to the change of rural residents in Hebei Province consumption expenditure to income; consumption of rural residents in Hebei province is determined by permanent income income the consumption of rural residents; the past affect the current consumption of more intense.1978 years, the per capita income of rural residents in Hebei province has obtained To improve, the trend of widening income gap significantly, which will have a negative impact on the rapid growth of the consumer. On the other hand, because of the uncertainty, resulting in rural residents in Hebei Province, the precautionary motive is more intense, the citizenssavings is no longer consumption surplus, but a conscious active saving behavior the results, which to some extent also affected the expansion of consumption of residents in Hebei province. In recent years, the rapid development of urbanization, but the urbanization effect on consumption of rural residents is delayed, will affect the rural residents' consumption expansion.
In order to improve the level of consumption of rural residents in Hebei Province, to create the basic balance between supply and demand conditions for further economic development in Hebei Province, put forward suggestions: increase the income of rural residents, adjust the income distribution relations; improve the rural social security system, improve the rural residents' consumption expectations; implement the strategy of integration of urban and rural development, accelerate the process of urbanization.

【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F323.8;F299.2;F832.22;F224

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