美国对外负债的可持续性与国际货币体系的未来

发布时间：2018-03-23 21:15

本文选题：不可能三角　切入点：美国对外负债　出处：《国际经济评论》2011年04期

【摘要】：要回归到某种形式的固定汇率制度,需要对国际资本流动进行全面且国际性的管制,乃至各国放弃管理货币制度下行使的金融主权。从经济、政治和政策上考虑,这两种要求都无法实现。欧元、日元、人民币甚至把合成货币(SDR)都考虑在内,也难以想像在可以预测的未来(21世纪中叶为止)能够出现替代美元的货币。美国的对外资产和负债之间有正的投资回报差额,这一差额在长期内将一直存在。只要这种回报差额持续存在,并且对外资产和负债占GDP的比率能够按照一定的速度扩大,那么即便美国的贸易收支逆差占GDP的比率维持在4%左右,其对外纯负债占GDP的比重维持稳定状态的可能性也是很大的。因此,以美元为中心的、由多数主要货币构成的现行浮动汇率制度具有很强的可持续性,以至于完全有可能在今后继续存在。
[Abstract]:To return to some form of fixed exchange rate regime requires comprehensive and international regulation of international capital flows, and even the abandonment of financial sovereignty exercised by countries under the monetary system... in economic, political and policy terms, Neither of these requirements can be fulfilled. The euro, the yen, the renminbi even take into account the composite currency, the SDR. It is also hard to imagine a currency that can replace the dollar in the foreseeable future until the middle of the 21st century. There is a positive difference in the return on investment between America's external assets and its liabilities. As long as the return gap persists and the ratio of external assets and liabilities to GDP expands at a certain rate, Well, even if the US trade balance deficit remains at around 4% of GDP, the likelihood of its net external debt as a percentage of GDP remaining stable is high. The current floating exchange rate regime, made up of most major currencies, is so sustainable that it is entirely possible to continue to exist in the future.
【作者单位】：日本龙谷大学经济学部;吉林大学;
【分类号】：F837.12;F821

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