我国货币供给对农产品价格波动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 04:21

本文选题：农产品　切入点：货币供给　出处：《新疆财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来农产品价格的大幅波动引起了社会的广泛关注，宏观经济变量（货币、利率、汇率）尤其是货币供应量在其中究竟发挥了什么样的作用呢？当前农产品价格上涨与我国货币供给状况的关系如何，始于次贷危机后的货币投放是不是造成后期农产品价格上涨的主要原因。理清货币发行量变化对农产品价格波动的影响，对于改进我国货币政策和稳定农产品市场价格有着十分重要的意义。本文以货币数量论为理论基础，从宏观经济理论入手分析了货币供应与价格水平之间存在的理论关系，基于农产品价格超调理论和通货膨胀预期理论分析了货币供给影响农产品价格的作用途径，然后结合当前货币供应与我国农产品价格的运行形势进行统计描述分析，最后选择2009年1月至2012年12月的样本数据，利用协整理论、误差修正模型和脉冲响应等计量经济方法分析我国货币供给对农产品价格的影响，研究我国货币供给对农产品价格短期波动和长期趋势的影响，并分析货币供给对市场化程度不同的粮食类农产品和“菜篮子”类农产品价格影响程度的差异性。通过2009年1月至2012年12月货币供应量与粮食类农产品和“菜篮子”类农产品价格的关系的研究结果表明，在长期内，货币供给无论是对粮食类农产品价格还是“菜篮子”类农产品价格都有显著影响，协整结果表明，货币供应量提高1%，，会导致粮食类农产品价格大约提高0.61%，会引起“菜篮子”类农产品价格大约提高0.43%。误差修正模型表明短期内货币供给对“菜篮子”类农产品价格的影响程度大于对粮食类农产品价格的影响程度，国家通过适度控制货币供应量有助于稳定“菜篮子”类农产品价格，货币供给对粮食类农产品价格的短期误差修正系数较小，较小的误差修正系数意味着需要较长时间的调整才能完全体现货币发行量变化对粮食类农产品价格的显著影响。基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数图表明在面对货币供给冲击时，“菜篮子”类农产品较粮食类农产品价格波动幅度大，响应时间快但持续时间短。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the large fluctuation of agricultural product price has aroused widespread concern of the society. What role has the macroeconomic variables (currency, interest rate, exchange rate), especially the money supply, played in it? What is the relationship between the current price rise of agricultural products and the situation of money supply in our country, and whether the money supply started after the sub-prime crisis is the main reason for the rise in the price of agricultural products in the later stage, so as to clarify the influence of the change in the amount of money issued on the fluctuation of agricultural product prices. It is of great significance to improve our monetary policy and stabilize the market price of agricultural products. Based on the theory of monetary quantity, this paper analyzes the theoretical relationship between money supply and price level from macroeconomic theory. Based on the theory of price overshoot of agricultural products and the theory of inflation expectation, this paper analyzes the influence of money supply on the price of agricultural products, and then makes a statistical description and analysis of the current situation of money supply and the operating situation of agricultural product prices in China. Finally, the sample data from January 2009 to December 2012 are selected to analyze the effect of money supply on agricultural product price by using co-integration theory, error correction model and impulse response. This paper studies the influence of money supply on the short-term fluctuation and long-term trend of agricultural product price, and analyzes the difference of the influence degree of money supply on the price of grain agricultural products with different degree of marketization and the price of "vegetable basket" type agricultural product. The results of a study on the relationship between the money supply and the prices of food and "basket" agricultural products from January 2009 to December 2012 indicate that, in the long term, The money supply has a significant impact on the prices of agricultural products in the grain category and on the prices of agricultural products in the category of "vegetable basket". The cointegration results show that. The increase of money supply will cause the price of grain agricultural products to rise by about 0.61. it will cause the price of "vegetable basket" agricultural products to rise by 0.43. the error correction model shows that the money supply will increase the price of agricultural products of "vegetable basket" in the short term. The degree of influence on the prices of grain agricultural products is greater than that on the prices of grain agricultural products. By appropriately controlling the money supply, the state helps to stabilize the prices of agricultural products of the "vegetable basket" category, and the short-term error correction coefficient of the money supply to the prices of grain agricultural products is relatively small. The smaller error correction coefficient means that it will take a long time to adjust to fully reflect the significant effect of the change of currency circulation on the prices of grain agricultural products. The impulse response function diagram based on VAR model shows that in the face of money supply. In the event of shock, the price fluctuation of "vegetable basket" agricultural products is larger than that of grain agricultural products. The response time is fast but the duration is short.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F323.7;F822.2

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