我国央行三大货币政策工具有效性的对比分析

发布时间：2018-03-31 00:00

本文选题：三大货币政策　切入点：向量自回归　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策工具是一国央行调控宏观经济的重要手段。研究各种政策工具的有效性,对于央行制定货币政策具有重要意义。本文试图依据我国的实际国情,系统分析并检验我国央行的三大货币政策工具的有效性,并对比分析不同货币政策工具的作用效力。本文首先简要阐述了西方货币金融学的相关理论,包括货币政策目标,货币政策传导机制,以及货币政策工具。在此基础上,重点分析了我国央行的三大货币政策工具——存贷款基准利率、法定准备金率、公开市场操作,梳理了央行自1984年以来的货币政策发展,讨论了我国央行的货币政策目标,并结合我国历史发展情形,对我国的货币政策工具重点进行了描述性分析。实证检验方面,本文采用向量自回归模型(VAR模型),基于实际数据的可得性,本文对2004年1月至2012年12月的月度数据进行分析,采用脉冲响应和方差分解的分析方法,研究了各个货币政策工具对三大货币政策中介目标、两大货币政策最终目标的作用效力,结果发现,基准利率的调整对于各个目标变量的作用效果最为显著,银行间拆借利率对于公开市场操作较为敏感,法定准备金率调整的作用效果不十分突出。最后,结合相关研究结果,本文提出了两项政策建议：在推进利率市场化改革的同时,积极推进金融市场体系的完善,逐步摆脱对于存贷款利率调整的依赖,确保法定准备金率和公开市场操作的传导渠道畅通；在推进货币政策转向价格型目标时,积极发展建设债券交易市场,提升公开市场操作的可执行性。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy tool is an important means for a country's central bank to adjust and control the macro-economy. It is of great significance to study the effectiveness of various policy instruments for the central bank to formulate monetary policy. The effectiveness of the three monetary policy instruments of the central bank is systematically analyzed and tested, and the effectiveness of different monetary policy instruments is compared and analyzed. This paper first briefly describes the relevant theories of western monetary finance, including monetary policy objectives, monetary policy transmission mechanism, and monetary policy tools. This paper mainly analyzes the three major monetary policy tools of the central bank of China-the benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan, the legal reserve ratio, the open market operation, combs the monetary policy development of the central bank since 1984, and discusses the monetary policy objectives of the central bank. Combined with the historical development of our country, this paper makes a descriptive analysis of the monetary policy tools in China. Based on the availability of actual data, this paper analyzes the monthly data from January 2004 to December 2012, and adopts the methods of impulse response and variance decomposition. This paper studies the effect of each monetary policy instrument on the three monetary policy intermediate objectives and the two monetary policy ultimate objectives. The results show that the adjustment of the benchmark interest rate has the most significant effect on each target variable. Interbank lending rate is more sensitive to open market operation, and the effect of legal reserve ratio adjustment is not very prominent. Finally, combined with the relevant research results, this paper puts forward two policy recommendations: to promote the reform of interest rate marketization, to actively promote the improvement of the financial market system, and to gradually get rid of the dependence on the adjustment of deposit and loan interest rates. To ensure that the legal reserve ratio and the transmission channels of open market operation are clear, and to actively develop the bond trading market and enhance the executability of the open market operation when pushing the monetary policy to the price-oriented target.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F822.0

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