中国影子银行对银行体系稳定性影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-31 13:53

本文选题：影子银行　切入点：银行体系　出处：《南京师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济货币化程度的不断提高,金融衍生工具的大量涌现,影子银行的规模也在迅速扩张。影子银行由于其内生的期限错配和高杠杆特性,容易导致银行体系的风险。2007年爆发的全球金融危机暴露了影子银行对银行体系稳定性的巨大破坏力。目前我国金融体系中银行仍处于主导地位,银行仍是我国金融体系的核心,金融危机的产生和发展必然与我国银行体系存在着密切联系。因此,探讨影子银行对我国银行体系稳定性的影响,将对我国银行体系的稳定和发展以及金融体系的稳定和发展产生重要的意义。本文采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,在国内外学者研究的基础上较为全面地、系统地分析了影子银行对我国银行体系稳定性带来的消极和积极的影响。并采用1992-2010年的年度数据对中国影子银行规模和银行体系稳定性进行测度,结合OLS回归模型、单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和异方差检验等计量经济学方法,在数据模拟的基础上建立相应模型实证研究两者关系,结果发现,影子银行规模与银行体系稳定性之间存在阈值效应,当影子银行规模低于阈值时,影子银行的发展有利于提高银行体系的稳定性,相反则降低银行体系的稳定性。为此,本文认为可以从以下几个方面来规避影子银行对银行体系稳定性的不利影响：加大改革,转变观念,鼓励建立民间金融机构,使影子银行合法化、阳光化；加强监管,规范影子银行经营活动,定期采集相关数据,防微杜渐,消除隐患；加快利率市场化,使利率政策充分发挥资金市场供求杠杆的作用,促进正规金融机构最大限度地吸收社会闲散资金；加强正规金融机构对私营企业和个体工商户的信贷支持,提高服务质量,创新业务品种,完善担保体系,从需求方面降低对影子银行的信贷依赖程度；降低影子银行的杠杆率；建立影子银行监管体系并加强影子银行的信息披露要求；次级抵押贷款市场危机是美国此次金融危机爆发的根源,因此对根源风险的监管是我国房地产市场目前发展阶段必须要着重监控的部分。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic monetization and the emergence of financial derivatives, the size of shadow banking is expanding rapidly. Risks to the banking system. The global financial crisis that broke out in 2007 exposed the enormous damage that shadow banking has done to the stability of the banking system. At present, banks are still dominant in our financial system, and banks are still the core of our financial system. The emergence and development of the financial crisis are bound to be closely related to the banking system in China. Therefore, the influence of shadow banking on the stability of the banking system in China is discussed. It will play an important role in the stability and development of the banking system and the financial system. This paper adopts the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, on the basis of domestic and foreign scholars' research, it is comparatively comprehensive. This paper systematically analyzes the negative and positive effects of shadow banking on the stability of China's banking system, and uses the annual data from 1992 to 2010 to measure the scale and stability of China's shadow banking system, combining with the OLS regression model. The econometrics methods such as unit root test cointegration test Granger causality test and heteroscedasticity test are established on the basis of data simulation. There is a threshold effect between the size of shadow banks and the stability of the banking system. When the size of shadow banks is below the threshold, the development of shadow banks is conducive to improving the stability of the banking system, on the contrary, it reduces the stability of the banking system. This paper argues that the negative impact of shadow banking on the stability of the banking system can be avoided from the following aspects: to increase reform, to change ideas, to encourage the establishment of private financial institutions, to legalize shadow banking, to make it sunny, and to strengthen supervision. To standardize shadow banking operations, regularly collect relevant data, prevent the gradual development of the small scale and eliminate hidden dangers; speed up the marketization of interest rates, so that the interest rate policy can give full play to the role of the leverage of supply and demand in the capital market. To promote the maximum absorption of idle social funds by formal financial institutions; to strengthen the credit support provided by formal financial institutions to private enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households; to improve the quality of services; to innovate business types; and to improve the guarantee system. In terms of demand, we should reduce the credit dependence of shadow banks, reduce the leverage ratio of shadow banks, establish the supervision system of shadow banks and strengthen the information disclosure requirements of shadow banks. The subprime mortgage market crisis is the root of the outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States, so the supervision of the root cause risk is the part that our real estate market must focus on at the present stage of development.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.3

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