我国黄金现货价格影响因素及波动规律研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 20:43

本文选题：黄金现货　切入点：价格　出处：《新疆财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：黄金以其特有的商品属性和金融属性在人类社会经济发展的历史长河中占有独特的一席之地。先抛开黄金的作为各种金器、首饰等的原材料的货币属性不谈，仅就其金融属性而言，自1816年英国率先宣布正式实行金本位，到十九世纪末二十世纪初的几十年间世界上的主要工业化国家相继确立金本位制，再到上世纪三十年代转变为不兑现的货币制度，直至四十年后的七十年代布雷顿森林体系的瓦解导致黄金在世界各国均不再以币材的身份出现于各国法令，但其作为各国重要的外汇储备之一仍对世界经济起着重要的影响。之所以如此，要依赖于黄金既具有优于其他金属的流动性同时又具有避险保值的功能。如此优异的金融属性让黄金市场成为全球备受瞩目的市场之一，也为针对该市场进行的相关研究赋予了特殊的重要意义。本文研究的目的在于了解和掌握我国黄金现货价格影响因素及变动规律的基本情况。首先，通过介绍黄金价格的历史价格趋势及对我国黄金现货价格的影响因素及价格的变动规律进行研究的重要性。在此基础上，，对国内外研究黄金市场，尤其是黄金现货市场的相关文献做出了综述。之后又对我国黄金市场（包括黄金现货市场与黄金期货市场）的历史发展情况及价格变动的直观特点以及影响国内黄金现货市场价格的国内外因素进行了深入细致的分析，选出六大因素作为研究我国黄金现货市场价格的主要影响因素进行实证分析。在得到的实证结果基础上结合经济学及金融学的相关原理及实际情况确定了本文中认为对我国黄金现货市场价格起到实际影响的几大因素，之后尝试用GARCH类模型拟合上海黄金交易所Au9995现货日收盘价的波动情况以寻找该价格波动规律。文章最后给出本文研究结论及对我国黄金现货的供求及市场组织各方提出建议。
[Abstract]:Gold occupies a unique place in the history of human social and economic development with its unique commodity and financial attributes. Let alone the monetary attributes of gold as raw materials of various kinds of gold, jewelry, etc. As far as its financial properties are concerned, from 1816 when Britain first announced the formal implementation of the gold standard, to the late 19th century and early 20th century, the major industrialized countries in the world successively established the gold standard system. Then in the 1930s it became a dishonoured monetary system, and four decades later, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system led to gold no longer appearing as money in the statutes of countries around the world. However, as one of the important foreign exchange reserves of various countries, it still plays an important role in the world economy. Relying on gold has liquidity superior to other metals as well as a hedge against risk. Such excellent financial attributes make the gold market one of the most visible markets in the world. It also gives special significance to the research on this market. The purpose of this study is to understand and master the basic situation of the influencing factors and changing rules of gold spot price in China. By introducing the historical price trend of gold and the importance of studying the influencing factors and the changing law of the gold spot price in China, the paper studies the gold market at home and abroad. Especially the related documents of gold spot market are summarized. Then the historical development of gold market in China (including gold spot market and gold futures market) and the intuitive characteristics of price change and its influence on domestic gold market are summarized. The domestic and foreign factors of gold spot market prices have been thoroughly and meticulously analyzed. Six factors are selected as the main influencing factors to study the gold spot market price in China. Based on the obtained empirical results, combined with the relevant principles and actual conditions of economics and finance, this paper determines that. It is believed that several major factors that have a practical impact on the spot market price of gold in China, Then we try to use GARCH model to fit the fluctuation of Au9995 spot daily closing price in Shanghai Gold Exchange to find out the fluctuation law of the price. Finally, the paper gives the conclusion of this paper and gives some suggestions to the supply and demand of gold spot and the market organization in China.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.54;F224

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