国际利率联动性趋势与中国因应研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 21:38

本文选题：国际利率　切入点：利率调整　出处：《福建师范大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：经济全球化加大了国际经济的相互依存性。2008年的金融危机使世界金融制度发生重大变化,国家有效干预受到重视。国际经济政策协调对解决国际经济的相互依存性问题的作用日益增大,国际利率联动性也呈增强趋势。随着中国融入全球经济程度的加深,中国利率的国际联动趋势日益显现,弱化了其对市场利率与经济的调控水平。本文在文献回顾,明确了中国国际利率联动与应对研究必须以马克思主义利息理论为指导的基础上,运用数理推演与实证检验的方法探讨了国际利率联动性趋势、特征以及对中国经济与央行利率调控效率的影响,并建立了中国利率联动应对机制。结果表明,国际利率联动性的本质是经济全球化,其来源有四个即经济全球化、金融一体化、世界共同因素以及国际经济政策协调。在经济正常期,国际联动程度较底,而在经济异动时期则高。2008年国际金融危机增强了国际利率联动性,金融危机后国际利率联动程度明显高于之前。国际利率联动性与开放经济政策的“三元悖论”紧密相连。国际利率联动性主要受资本流动、本国货币升值预期以及外汇储备规模的影响。国际利率联动性与资本流动程度有正向变动关系,而同升值预期与中国储备规模呈反向变动的关系。在以上因素作用下,中国利率调整呈现出一定程度的国际联动性与独立性。但国际利率的联动性有不对称特征。美国利率政策调整对美国产出有明显促进作用,而对中国产出的促进作用较弱。国际利率联动性对弱化了中国利率政策对市场利率的调控水平。最后,文章提出了相关对策与建议。中国应该协调资本项目开放、利率汇率市场化。央行应以物价稳定为货币政策长期目标,利用利率走廊操作系统间接调控市场利率,权衡资本项目开放、外汇储备变化、汇率稳定与利率政策相对独立的关系,以平衡国内经济增长与通货膨胀水平的关系。要保持中国利率政策相对独立,主动参与国际利率政策协调,以提高中国利率政策调控效率。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization has increased the interdependence of the international economy. The 2008 financial crisis brought about major changes in the world financial system. The role of international economic policy coordination in solving the problem of interdependence in the international economy is increasingly increasing, and the international interest rate linkage is also showing an increasing trend. As China's integration into the global economy deepens, The trend of international linkage of interest rate in China is becoming more and more obvious, which weakens its control level of market interest rate and economy. This paper makes it clear that the research on the linkage and response of China's international interest rate must be guided by Marxist interest theory, and discusses the trend of international interest rate linkage by means of mathematical deduction and empirical test. Characteristics and effects on China's economy and the efficiency of the central bank's interest rate regulation and control, and the establishment of China's interest rate linkage response mechanism. The results show that the nature of international interest rate linkage is economic globalization, which comes from four sources: economic globalization, financial integration, world common factors and coordination of international economic policies. The 2008 international financial crisis strengthened the international interest rate linkage. The degree of international interest rate linkage after the financial crisis is obviously higher than that before. The international interest rate linkage is closely related to the "ternary paradox" of open economic policy. There is a positive relationship between international interest rate linkage and the degree of capital flow, but a reverse relationship between the expectation of appreciation and the size of China's reserve. China's interest rate adjustment shows a certain degree of international linkage and independence, but the linkage of international interest rate has asymmetrical characteristics. The adjustment of American interest rate policy can obviously promote the output of the United States. The linkage of international interest rate weakens the control level of Chinese interest rate policy to market interest rate. Finally, the paper puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions. China should coordinate the opening of capital account, the marketization of interest rate exchange rate, and the central bank should take price stability as the long-term target of monetary policy, and indirectly regulate the market interest rate by using the interest rate corridor operating system. To balance capital account opening, changes in foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate stability and relative independence of interest rate policies in order to balance the relationship between domestic economic growth and the level of inflation, it is necessary to maintain a relatively independent interest rate policy in China. To actively participate in the coordination of international interest rate policy in order to improve the efficiency of China's interest rate policy control.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F821.0;F831.6

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