温州金融体制改革对经济增长的影响

发布时间：2018-04-10 18:44

本文选题：金融体制改革 + 经济增长　；参考：《广西大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：2012年3月28日,温家宝总理召开国务院常务会议批准在温州建立金融改革试验区,将温州选为金融体制改革的试点城市。截止到2015年底,温州金融体制改革已经经历了3年多的时间。温州经济体制改革成效如何?是否促进了当地经济的增长?是否还存在缺陷和不足?这些都是我们迫切需要知道的问题。我们利用2012年3月份在温州市推行的金融体制改革试点,运用34个地级市2005年第1季度到2015年第4季度的数据研究了温州金融体制改革对经济增长的影响。本文首先使用传统的双重差分方法进行了研究,发现由于样本量的限制,双重差分方法得到的结论并不显著。接着,我们使用Abaide A等(2003,2010)提出的合成控制方法,用其他地级市的数据估计了金改后合成的温州人均实际地区生产总值。发现温州金改对温州市经济的影响在2013年以后逐步显现,到2015年相对于合成的温州,金改平均提高人均实际地区生产总值7.25个百分点,并且我们验证了这个结论是稳健的。同时,我们用萧政等(2012)提出的方法(HCW方法)进行了分析,发现HCW方法得到的结论与合成控制方法基本一致,到2015年相对于拟合的温州,金改平均提高人均实际地区生产总值10.94个百分点。综上,我们认为温州金融体制改革对温州市人均实际地区生产总值的影响在2013年以后逐步显现,在2015年,相对于拟合的温州,金改平均提高温州人均地区生产总值7.25—10.94个百分点。
[Abstract]:On March 28, 2012, Premier Wen Jiabao convened an executive meeting of the State Council to approve the establishment of a financial reform pilot zone in Wenzhou, which will be selected as a pilot city for the reform of the financial system.By the end of 2015, Wenzhou financial system reform has gone through more than three years.What are the achievements of Wenzhou's economic system reform?Has it contributed to the growth of the local economy?Are there any shortcomings or deficiencies?These are the questions we urgently need to know.Using the financial system reform pilot conducted in Wenzhou in March 2012, we studied the impact of Wenzhou financial system reform on economic growth using data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2015 in 34 prefectural cities.In this paper, the traditional double difference method is used to study, and it is found that the conclusion obtained by the double difference method is not significant due to the limitation of sample size.Then, using the synthetic control method proposed by Abaide A et al. (2003 / 2010), we estimate the real per capita GDP of Wenzhou by using the data of other prefectural cities.It is found that the impact of Wenzhou gold reform on Wenzhou's economy gradually appeared after 2013. By 2015, compared with the synthetic Wenzhou, the gold reform has increased the real per capita GDP by an average of 7.25 percentage points, and we have verified that this conclusion is stable.At the same time, we use the method proposed by Xiao Zheng et al. 2012) to analyze. It is found that the conclusion of HCW method is basically consistent with the synthetic control method.On average, the gold reform raised the real per capita GDP by 10.94 percentage points.In summary, we believe that the impact of Wenzhou's financial system reform on Wenzhou's real per capita GDP gradually appears after 2013, and in 2015, compared with Wenzhou,Reform of the average increase in Wenzhou per capita GDP 7.25-10.94 percentage points.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.1;F127

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