量化宽松Ⅱ冲击和中国的政策选择

发布时间：2018-04-11 06:48

  本文选题：QE + 泡沫生成和破裂　； 参考：《国际经济评论》2011年01期

【摘要】：作者阐明了美联储提出量化宽松Ⅱ(QE2)的现实背景和政策思想渊源,分析了QE2的经济后果以及中国面临的政策挑战。如果QE2引起的流动性增加主要在美国国内被消化,那么通货膨胀和资产泡沫有可能使美国重演2002-2007年的"泡沫生成和破裂"周期;如果QE2引起的流动性大量流向新兴市场经济体,那么后者有可能再现20世纪90年代中后期的金融动荡。而无论何种可能性发生,QE2都将导致美元贬值。面对QE2冲击,中国应该实施的政策安排包括:加快人民币名义升值、实施稳健甚至从紧的货币政策、加强资本管制、继续采取积极的财政政策、加强金融监管和积极推动国际货币体系改革等。
[Abstract]:The author clarifies the realistic background and the origin of policy ideas of the Federal Reserve's proposal of quantitative easing II / QE2, analyzes the economic consequences of QE2 and the policy challenges facing China.If the increase in liquidity caused by QE2 is largely absorbed within the United States, then inflation and asset bubbles are likely to lead to a repeat of the "bubble generation and burst" cycle of 2002-2007; if the liquidity generated by QE2 were to flow heavily to emerging market economies,The latter is likely to recreate the financial turmoil of the mid-and late 1990 s.Whatever the possibility, QE2 will devalue the dollar.In the face of the impact of QE2, China should implement policies such as speeding up the nominal appreciation of the renminbi, implementing a prudent or even tight monetary policy, strengthening capital controls, and continuing to adopt active fiscal policies.We will strengthen financial supervision and actively promote the reform of the international monetary system.
【作者单位】： 中央财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：教育部“国际金融危机应对研究”应急课题重大项目“全球金融危机冲击下的中国:宏观经济政策选择和结构调整”(2009JYJR001)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F827.12;F123.16
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本文编号：1734872