基于财政视角的中国通货膨胀研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 01:26

本文选题：通货膨胀 + 财政政策　；参考：《南开大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：本文所研究的问题是中国的通货膨胀与财政政策关系,并进一步将其分成两个层次：首先,中国的通货膨胀与财政政策特别是政府投资与消费之间是否存在内在的必然联系,本文试图通过对于这个问题的回答提供一个分析中国通货膨胀问题的新的维度。其次,如果财政政策确实是形成中国通胀的一个原因,那么财政政策是通过什么机制或路径影响通货膨胀的,这点主要涉及我国现行的财政政策工具及其发挥作用所依赖的经济的内在特征等问题。本文采用动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)来研究基于财政视角的中国通货膨胀问题。DSGE是基于发达国家的经济现实发展出来并带有发达国家经济的某些特征,尝试利用这一架构分析中国经济现实时不可避免的会产生各种问题,然而这些问题所折射出的正是中国经济与发达经济之间的某些差异及其所产生的影响,所以采用DSGE架构能更好地认识中国经济的问题,并通过逐步地发展和改进现有分析架构来服务于中国经济。本文在梳理学术界关于财政政策与通货膨胀关系的研究基础上,在立足当下的同时上溯至1994年以来我国财政政策操作和通货膨胀的发展,通过实证的方法揭示两者的内在联系,最后结合中国经济特征构建了一个分析财政政策和通货膨胀的DSGE模型,并通过定量分析得到相关结论：第一,我国的通货膨胀无论是波动的周期长度还是运行轨迹几乎与经济波动的相关特征具有高度的一致性,通货膨胀都具有很强的顺周期性而且是经济周期的滞后指标。第二,中国的政府投资性支出占GDP的比重相较于主要发达国家是比较高的,结合投资对我国经济增长的拉动作用,政府投资无疑是驱动中国经济增长的重要因素之一。第三,基于财政基本盈余测算的我国财政政策态势表明我国的财政政策具有逆风向而动的操作特征,这一特征与自1994年以来持续的财政基本盈余为负联系在一起的,而这种负的财政基本盈余的持续性也不容忽视。第四,运用模型的定量研究表明,我国政府投资性支出和消费性支出在推动经济扩张的同时对通货膨胀的发展有一定的推动作用,而且政府投资性支出相较于消费性支出而言无论是在促进经济增长方面还是推动通货膨胀方面的效能更强；政府支出对私人投资和消费的影响分布是不平衡的,主要体现在对“遵循拇指规则”家庭的消费挤出,而对于“李嘉图型家庭”却没有挤出效应；同时两类政府支出对于私人投资而言没有挤出效应；同时在政府支出冲击发生后,虽然总的消费水平在上升,但是私人消费占GDP的比重却是经历了首先向下偏离稳态然后逐步向稳态恢复的过程,这一响应模式表明在持续的政府支出冲击下,私人消费支出占比最终会下降的结果,这与我国在2000年后消费支出占比的持续下降是一致的。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the relationship between inflation and fiscal policy in China, and further divides it into two levels: first, whether there is an inherent relationship between inflation and fiscal policy, especially between government investment and consumption.This paper attempts to provide a new dimension for the analysis of China's inflation problem through the answer to this question.Secondly, if fiscal policy is indeed a cause of inflation in China, then what mechanism or path does fiscal policy use to influence inflation?This point mainly involves the current fiscal policy tools and the internal characteristics of the economy on which it plays a role.In this paper, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) is used to study the inflation problem in China from the perspective of finance. DSGE is based on the economic reality of developed countries and has some characteristics of developed countries' economies.When trying to use this framework to analyze the reality of China's economy, it is inevitable that problems will arise. However, these problems reflect precisely some differences between China's economy and developed economies and their impact.Therefore, using DSGE framework can better understand the problems of China's economy, and gradually develop and improve the existing analytical framework to serve the Chinese economy.On the basis of combing the academic research on the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation, this paper goes back to the development of fiscal policy operation and inflation since 1994, and reveals the internal relationship between them by empirical method.Finally, this paper constructs a DSGE model to analyze fiscal policy and inflation according to the characteristics of Chinese economy, and obtains the relevant conclusions by quantitative analysis: first,The inflation of our country is almost consistent with the relative characteristics of economic fluctuation whether it is the cycle length or the track of fluctuation. Inflation has a strong procyclicality and is a lagging indicator of the economic cycle.Second, the proportion of China's government investment expenditure in GDP is higher than that of the major developed countries, and government investment is undoubtedly one of the important factors that drive China's economic growth in combination with the pull effect of investment on China's economic growth.Thirdly, China's fiscal policy situation based on the calculation of the basic fiscal surplus indicates that the fiscal policy of our country has the characteristics of operating against the wind, which is related negatively to the sustained basic fiscal surplus since 1994.And the sustainability of this negative primary surplus cannot be ignored.Fourth, the quantitative study of the model shows that the government investment expenditure and consumption expenditure can promote the development of inflation while promoting economic expansion.Moreover, government investment spending is more effective than consumer spending in terms of promoting economic growth or promoting inflation; the distribution of the impact of government spending on private investment and consumption is uneven.This is mainly reflected in the consumption crowding out of households "following the rule of the thumb", but not in the case of "Ricardo families"; at the same time, the two types of government expenditure have no crowding out effect on private investment, and after the impact of government expenditure,Although the total consumption level is rising, the ratio of private consumption to GDP is going through the process of first deviating from the steady state and then gradually recovering to the steady state. This response pattern shows that under the impact of the sustained government expenditure,The proportion of private consumption expenditure will eventually decline, which is consistent with the continued decline in the proportion of consumption expenditure after 2000 in China.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812;F822.5

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