证券分析师实地调研影响因素探究

发布时间：2018-04-18 17:32

本文选题：分析师实地调研 + 信息不确定性　；参考：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：证券分析师是资本市场的重要参与者,他们利用自身的专业知识和资源为市场提供信息,降低投资者与上市公司之间的信息不对称程度,以便投资者做出投资决策。证券分析师为市场提供的信息可以分为两种类型,第一类是对上市公司公开信息进行加工而产生的信息,第二类是通过对公司的跟踪调研而获得的非公开信息。因此,证券分析师的信息来源众多,包括公司公布的定期和临时报告、公司召开的新闻发布会、自己对公司的电话访问和实地调研、与公司内部人员的私下交流以及各类媒体的公开报道等。相关文献的研究结果显示,实地调研是获取信息量最大、信息深度和可信度最高的信息来源之一,但是伴随高收益而来的是实地调研的高成本,证券分析师在做出是否进行实地调研的决策之前,会权衡相关的成本收益。公司层面和分析师层面的诸多因素都会影响证券分析师的决策,本文从公司层面对证券分析师实地调研的影响因素进行了研究。本文主要从信息角度来探究影响证券分析师实地调研的因素。信息分为内部特征、外部需求和内外联系三个方面,内部特征主要是信息内容,外部需求主要是信息需求者,内外联系主要是信息披露。信息内容的不确定性、信息披露的透明度和作为信息需求者的机构投资者持股都会对证券分析师的实地调研决策产生影响。本文选择了2008-2010这三年期间被证券分析师跟踪覆盖的深交所主板A股公司为研究样本,分别进行了实地调研概率和强度两个角度的实证研究,其中,概率研究是以公司本年内是否接受了证券分析师实地调研为被解释变量,强度研究是以公司本年内接受的证券分析师实地调研次数为被解释变量,并选择适当的解释变量建立模型进行实证研究。本文将公司前三年营业收入的平均增长率、前三年营业利润的标准离差率和上年度无形资产占总资产的比例这三个指标分别扣除行业平均水平,以新得到的三个变量作为信息不确定性的替代变量；以深圳证券交易所网站公布的上市公司上年诚信档案评价结果作为公司信息透明度的替代变量;以公司上年是否存在机构持股者这一哑变量作为机构投资者持股的替代变量,从概率和强度两个方面入手,分别建立了logistic回归模型和Tobit回归模型进行了探究。实证研究结果表明,在概率方面,公司信息内容的不确定性越高、信息披露的透明度越高、机构投资者在公司股权结构中的地位越重要,证券分析师对该公司进行实地调研的概率越大。在强度方面,信息不确定性的三个替代变量中,只有业绩波动的显著性较强,业绩波动程度越高,证券分析师实地调研的强度越低；信息透明度和机构投资者持股对实地调研强度的影响十分显著,公司信息披露的透明度越高、机构投资者在公司股权结构中的地位越重要,证券分析师对该公司进行实地调研的强度越大。
[Abstract]:Securities analyst is an important participant in the capital market, they use their expertise and resources to provide information to the market, reduce the degree of information asymmetry between investors and listed companies, investors to make investment decisions. The securities analyst for the market to provide information can be divided into two types, the first is caused to the information disclosure of the listed companies the information processing, the second category is obtained by tracking and investigating on the company's non-public information. Therefore, analysts' information sources are numerous, including the company published regularly and interim report, the company held a press conference on the company's own, telephone interview and on-the-spot investigation, communicate privately with the company's internal staff and all kinds of media the public reports. Relevant research results show that field research is to obtain the largest amount of information, information and credibility of the depth One of the sources of information is high, but accompanied by high yield is high cost of on-the-spot investigation, before the securities analyst in the investigation of whether or not to make the decision, will weigh the costs and benefits related to many factors. The company level and the level of analyst will affect the securities analyst decision is studied in this paper from the face of the company level influencing factors of securities analyst investigation.
This paper mainly from the perspective of information to explore the influencing factors of securities analyst research. Information is divided into three aspects: internal features, external demand and internal and external links, internal features are mainly information content, external demand is mainly information needs, information disclosure is the main internal and external links. The information content of uncertainty, information disclosure and transparency as the information needs of institutional investors will have an impact on the securities analyst investigation decision. This paper selected 2008-2010 for the three year period by securities analysts tracking coverage of the motherboard Shenzhen A shares of the company as the research sample, respectively, for the empirical research, two angles of investigation probability and intensity of the probability is the company this year whether to accept the securities analyst survey as explanatory variables, the strength of the company this year is to receive the securities analysts Investigation of the number of explanatory variables, and set up a model for empirical research chooses proper explanatory variables. The average rate of growth in operating income of the company three years ago, three years before the operating profit rate of standard deviation and the intangible assets to total assets ratio of these three indicators are the industry average net, to three new variables obtained as a substitution variable of uncertainty information; published by the website of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies last year credit archives evaluation results as the proxy of information transparency; to the company over whether the institutional shareholders of the dummy variable as a proxy of institutional investors, from the two aspects of probability and the strength were established logistic regression model and Tobit regression model were studied.
The empirical results show that the probability of the information content of the company, the higher the uncertainty of information disclosure, the higher transparency, position of institutional investors in the shareholding structure of the company's more important, the probability of securities analyst research and investigation on the company's larger. In the aspect of strength, three alternative variables of uncertain information in the only significant fluctuations in performance, stronger, higher performance fluctuations, securities analysts survey strength is low; influence of information transparency and institutional investors on field research strength is very significant, the company information disclosure transparency is higher, the status of institutional investors in the shareholding structure of the company more important in the field of securities analysts research on the company's strength is greater.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

【参考文献】