老龄化、金融杠杆与系统性风险

发布时间：2018-04-18 21:07

本文选题：老龄化 + 金融杠杆　；参考：《国际金融研究》2014年09期

【摘要】：人口老龄化和高杠杆是目前全球主要经济体面临的两大共同问题。本轮金融危机表明,处理不好这两大问题可能导致系统性的金融风险。本文基于119个国家(地区)1980-2012年的动态面板数据,从实证角度研究了人口老龄化对金融杠杆的影响,发现二者存在显著的倒U形关系。此外,实证研究还表明,在越过老龄化"拐点"之后,"去杠杆化"进程将随金融危机发生概率而明显上升。据文章实证结论推算,中国极有可能在2019-2028年间进入拐点区域。此后,人口老龄化、"去杠杆化"和资产价格的下降可能产生共振效应,并对金融体系的稳定性造成猛烈冲击。为此,中国应尽快转向更加积极主动的宏观金融调控,通过动态稳健的杠杆管理和前瞻性的泡沫治理,确保金融体系始终保持足够的弹性,从而最大限度地避免系统性风险。
[Abstract]:Population ageing and high leverage are two common problems facing the world's major economies.The current financial crisis shows that the two major problems can lead to systemic financial risk.Based on the dynamic panel data of 119 countries (regions) from 1980 to 2012, this paper studies the effect of population aging on financial leverage from an empirical point of view, and finds that there is a significant inverted U shape relationship between them.In addition, the empirical study also shows that after crossing the "inflection point" of aging, the process of "deleveraging" will increase significantly with the probability of financial crisis.According to the empirical conclusions, it is very likely that China will enter the inflection zone between 2019 and 2028.Thereafter, an ageing population, "deleveraging" and falling asset prices could have resonance effects and have a strong impact on the stability of the financial system.Therefore, China should turn to more active macro-financial regulation and control as soon as possible, and ensure that the financial system remains flexible enough to avoid systemic risks to the maximum extent through dynamic and robust leverage management and forward-looking bubble management.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学;中国国际金融学会;中国人民大学财政金融学院中国财政金融政策研究中心国际货币研究所;中国人民大学重阳金融研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“完善金融宏观调控体系研究”(12&ZD089)资助
【分类号】：F832;D669.6;F224

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