人民币实际汇率变动的结构效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 07:46

本文选题：经济转型 + 人民币汇率　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：进入新世纪以来,随着以中国为代表的新兴经济体实现较快的出口增长和经济增长,实际汇率的经济增长效应研究在西方学术界开始升温。大体来看,目前西方主流经济学的代表性观点是：实际汇率低估通常可以促进经济增长,高估则可能损害经济增长。实际汇率影响经济增长的渠道可能有资本积累渠道和全要素生产率增长渠道。保持汇率低估和稳定的政策可能只是在经济增长的启动阶段比较有效。随着经济的发展,新兴经济体很可能需要进行汇率机制改革以退出原先的低估和盯住汇率政策。总体来看,西方主流经济学关注的焦点是实际汇率的经济增长效应,专门针对实际汇率变动的经济结构效应的研究很少。一些研究即使有所涉及,大多也仅限于讨论实际汇率“错配”与出口导向型经济或“荷兰病”的关系。另一方面,长期在西方处于非主流地位的结构主义经济学派对经济结构问题(特别是发达资本主义国家的经济结构问题)一直比较关注。结构主义学派长期关注收入分配与消费、投资乃至整体经济增长的关系。不过总体来看,结构主义学派的研究大多主要针对国内问题,考虑到汇率因素的研究不多。本文认为实际汇率变动对一国的经济结构调整有着重要的影响,经济转型通常需要对汇率水平进行调整。本文尝试构建和运用结构主义宏观经济模型,从收入分配的视角研究实际汇率变动影响经济结构调整的内在机制,并对人民币实际汇率变动的收入分配效应进行计量检验。然后从当前我国经济转型的客观要求出发,探索深化人民币汇率形成机制改革以促进经济转型的政策启示。在开放经济条件下,实际汇率变动具有重要的收入分配效应。实际汇率变动通过影响要素收入分配(劳动收入占比与资本收入占比等)和部门收入分配(贸易品部门与非贸易品部门的利润率等),进而对贸易、消费和投资乃至整体的经济增长产生重要影响。实际汇率贬值往往有利于提高资本收入占比和贸易品部门的利润率,从而有利于出口和投资扩张,这有利于贸易品部门和工业部门的发展；相反,实际汇率适度升值通常有利于提高工资收入占比和非贸易品部门的利润率,从而有利于扩大内需、发展服务业和促进产业升级。本文对人民币实际有效汇率与中国的总储蓄占比之间的关系进行时间序列分析,对理论模型的主要结论进行计量检验。实证研究的结果在很大程度上支持理论模型的结论。本文进一步针对实际汇率变动的收入分配效应进行中、日、德国际比较,重点比较二战后日元与德国马克实际汇率变动的不同趋势及其对日本与德国储蓄和经济的不同影响,尝试得出对人民币汇率形成机制改革和中国经济转型具有参考和借鉴意义的经验教训。通过国际比较发现,1980-2011年日元不仅在长期趋势上大幅升值,而且在升值过程中伴随着日元汇率的大幅震荡,日本外向型企业的利润因此受到很大的负面影响,日本国内产业大量转移到国外,引发“去工业化”和日本经济“失去的十年”的现象。与日元相比,同期的德国马克和韩元保持了实际汇率的基本稳定,波动幅度较小,德国和韩国基本上没有发生类似于日本的经济长期衰退的现象。当前我国正处在经济转型的关键阶段,需要我们全面深化经济体制改革。在收入分配上需要大力增加居民收入,不断调整和改善收入分配结构。在贸易收支上,近年来我国贸易收支的余额、结构正在发生重要变化。产业结构调整升级的任务依然艰巨。我国的劳动力、资源和环境等广义生产要素市场都在发生新变化,未来我国广义生产要素价格总体上将呈现上升趋势。上述经济转型的任务对深化人民币汇率形成机制改革提出了新的要求。本文得出的当前基于经济转型要求的深化汇率形成机制改革的主要政策启示是：第一,在保持人民币名义汇率基本稳定的情况下,根据我国经济发展的实际状况和转型需要,人民币实际汇率适时适度升值有利于促进我国的经济转型(如扩大内需、产业结构调整升级等)。第二,预防人民币汇率过度升值引发“去工业化”的倾向,避免出现失业率上升或者泡沫经济。第三,统筹协调名义汇率、工资价格与劳动生产率的调整,充分发挥汇率对经济结构调整的积极作用。
[Abstract]:Since entering the new century, with the emerging economies to China as the representative to achieve rapid export growth and economic growth, the real exchange rate effects on economic growth in the western academic circles began to heat up. In general, the representative of western mainstream economics point of view is: the undervalued real exchange rate usually can promote economic growth, it may overestimate the economic damage the real exchange rate growth. Economic growth channels may have the capital accumulation channel and TFP growth channel. Keep an undervalued exchange rate and stable policy may be more effective in the starting stage of economic growth. With the development of economy, emerging economies may need to reform of the exchange rate mechanism to exit the original undervalued and the pegged exchange rate policy.
Overall, the focus of western mainstream economics is concerned with the economic growth effect of the real exchange rate, there are few studies on special economic structure effect of real exchange rate changes. Some research even involved, are mostly limited to discuss the relationship between the real exchange rate mismatch and export-oriented economy or "Dutch disease".
On the other hand, the long-term in the western economics structure in the economic structure of the non mainstream status (especially the economic structure of the developed capitalist countries) has been more attention. Structuralists focus and long-term consumption of income distribution, the relationship between economic growth and overall investment. But overall, most of the main research structuralism aiming at the problem, taking into account the study exchange rate factors.
This paper believes that the real exchange rate adjustment of the economic structure of a country has an important influence to economic transformation usually needs to adjust the exchange rate. This paper attempts to construct and apply structuralism macroeconomic model, from the perspective of income distribution on the impact of real exchange rate by the internal mechanism of the adjustment of economic structure, and econometric test on income distribution the effect of the real exchange rate of RMB. Then starting from the objective requirements of economic transformation in China at present, on deepening the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism to promote the policy implications of economic transformation.
Under the condition of open economy, real exchange rate has an important effect on income distribution. The real exchange rate by affecting the income distribution factors (labor income and capital income accounted for the proportion of income distribution (Department) and the tradable sector and non tradable sector profit rate), which have an important impact on trade, consumption and investment and overall economic growth.
A depreciation of the real exchange rate tends to help to improve the capital income ratio and trade department profit rate, which is conducive to the expansion of exports and investment, which is conducive to the development of trade and industry departments; on the contrary, a modest appreciation of the real exchange rate is conducive to raising the wage income and the proportion of non tradable goods sector's profit margins, which have to expand domestic demand, the development of the service industry and promote industrial upgrading.
This paper conducts a time series analysis of the relationship between the RMB real effective exchange rate and China's total savings ratio, and conducts a quantitative test on the main conclusions of the theoretical model. The results of empirical study support the conclusion of the theoretical model to a large extent.
This paper further studies the income distribution effect of real exchange rate movements in Japan, Germany, international comparison, focus on the comparison of different trends after World War II and the German Mark yen real exchange rate and its effects on Japan and German savings and economy, try to draw on the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform and China economic transformation has experience and reference meaning.
Through international comparison, the sharp appreciation of the yen 1980-2011 years not only in the long run, but also in the process of appreciation with the volatility in the yen exchange rate, Japan's export-oriented enterprises profits suffer great negative impact on the domestic industry, Japan is transferred to a large number of foreign countries, lead to industrialization "and Japan's" lost ten years "the phenomenon of yen over the same period. And compared to the German Mark and won to maintain the basic stability of the real exchange rate, little fluctuation, Germany and South Korea basically no long-term decline similar to the Japanese economy.
At present our country is in the key stage of economic transformation, we need to deepen the reform of economic system. In the distribution of income needs to increase income, to constantly adjust and improve the structure of income distribution. On the trade balance, the balance of trade balance in China in recent years, the structure is in great changes. The industrial structure adjustment and upgrade task is still arduous. China's labor, resources and environment generalized production factors market new changes are taking place in China, the future general generalized factor prices showed a rising trend. The economic transformation task for deepening the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform puts forward new requirements.
This paper draws the main policy implications of deepening the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism of the economic transformation based on requirements: first, to maintain the RMB nominal exchange rate basically stable, according to the needs of the economic development of our country's actual situation and transformation, the real exchange rate of RMB appreciation is conducive to timely and appropriate to promote China's economic transformation (such as the expansion of domestic demand the adjustment of industrial structure upgrade). Second, to prevent excessive appreciation of RMB exchange rate caused the tendency of "de industrialization", to avoid rising unemployment or bubble economy. Third, the exchange rate of nominal wage and price co-ordination, the adjustment of labor productivity, give full play to the positive role of the exchange rate adjustment of economic structure.

【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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