后危机时代中国贸易顺差与三大产业、汇率及生产者服务业间关联度研究——基于中国与OECD十国的分析比较

发布时间：2018-04-19 15:01

本文选题：产业结构 + 贸易顺差　；参考：《经济问题探索》2011年03期

【摘要】：自2008年美国金融危机后,世界各国相继高举贸易保护主义大旗。我国接连遭遇到诸多反倾销案,其中一个不容忽视的原因即中国巨额的贸易顺差。中国如何导致数额巨大的贸易顺差?本文基于对OECD国家面板数据分析的基础上,重点测度了三大产业与贸易顺差间的关联性,同时研究贸易顺差与生产者服务业、汇率间的相互作用。结果发现,一国的贸易顺差与该国所处时期的产业结构配比有很强的关联度,即一国对第一、第二产业的着重发展成为当今世界贸易顺差的主要原因,而非汇率。也就是说,当前,我国的贸易顺差与正处于工业经济中期注重发展制造业间存在很强的关联度,这一因素的制约作用超过了人民币汇率对我国外贸顺差产生的效应。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 US financial crisis, countries around the world have held high the banner of trade protectionism.China has encountered many anti-dumping cases, one of which can not be ignored is China's huge trade surplus.How does China generate a huge trade surplus?Based on the analysis of OECD country panel data, this paper mainly measures the relationship between the three industries and trade surplus, and studies the interaction between trade surplus and producer services, exchange rate.The results show that the trade surplus of a country has a strong correlation with the industrial structure ratio of the country in the period, that is, the emphasis of one country on the first and second industries becomes the main reason of the world trade surplus, not the exchange rate.That is to say, there is a strong correlation between China's trade surplus and the development of manufacturing industry in the middle stage of industrial economy. The restriction of this factor exceeds the effect of RMB exchange rate on China's foreign trade surplus.
【作者单位】：上海大学经济学院;
【基金】：上海大学人文社会科学研究项目:“着力发展生产性服务业—加快推进产业结构调整研究”的资助
【分类号】：F752.6;F124;F832.6;F224

【共引文献】