PPI与CPI关系及我国通货膨胀治理

发布时间：2018-04-19 16:56

本文选题：PPI、PPI + 传导、倒挂　；参考：《统计研究》2011年09期

【摘要】：PPI和CPI的关系是宏观经济研究热点问题之一。本文通过TS季节调整模型和HP滤波方法对1993年1月～2010年7月定基PPI和CPI进行分解,得到趋势、季节、不规则和循环因素,发现PPI和CPI两者的趋势、季节和不规则因素间的传导和"倒挂"不显著,增强了用循环因素研究两者关系的科学性。研究发现:①两者间传导和"倒挂"交替出现,分别经历两个周期,均在第二周期波谷处逆转。传导和"倒挂"时隔有明显周期;②2003年前PPI向CPI传导的原因为投资膨胀、卖方市场等。2003年后PPI与CPI"倒挂"的原因除投资膨胀外,还有有效需求不足,买方市场,粮食和住房价格上涨等原因;③针对当前通货膨胀特点,提出有别于要素价格管制和货币紧缩政策的措施,可解决物价的长期深层矛盾。
[Abstract]:The relationship between PPI and CPI is one of the hot issues in macroeconomic research.In this paper, we decompose the fixed base PPI and CPI from January 1993 to July 2010 by using the TS seasonally adjusted model and HP filtering method, and obtain the trend, seasonal, irregular and cyclic factors, and find the trends of PPI and CPI.The conduction and "inversion" between seasonal and irregular factors are not significant, which enhances the scientific nature of the study of the relationship between seasonal and irregular factors.It is found that the conduction and "inversion" between the two parts appear alternately and undergo two cycles respectively, both of which are reversed at the second cycle trough.2before 2003, the causes of PPI transmission to CPI are investment expansion, seller's market, etc. After 2003, the reasons of PPI and CPI's "upside down" are not only investment expansion, but also insufficient effective demand, buyer's market, etc.In view of the characteristics of current inflation, measures different from factor price control and monetary tightening policy are put forward, which can solve the deep contradiction of price for a long time.
【作者单位】：暨南大学统计学系;暨南大学教育学院统计学系;
【基金】：国家哲学社会科学基金(10BJY050) 广东省哲学社会科学基金(09E-04)资助
【分类号】：F726;F822.5

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