我国民间金融风险预警监控研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 16:20

本文选题：民间金融风险 + 预警监测指标　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：民间金融是相对于正规官方的金融而言的金融形式,在我国拥有两千多年的历史,是以民间信用为基础发展起来的,其在融通资金、提高资金利用效率、解决中小企业融资难的问题上成为正规金融的有益补充,促进了我国经济的发展。然而,近年来不断发生的区域性民间借贷危机则说明了民间金融是把双刃剑,在促进经济发展的同时,也削弱了政府的宏观调控力度,具有潜伏的不可忽视的金融风险。因此,控制民间金融风险则是充分发挥其功效和克服其弊端的基础,做好民间金融风险的监控和预警,建立一个相对完善的民间金融风险预警指标体系,将有助于防范区域性民间金融风险转化为危机,对促进我国经济和金融的健康、稳定发展,有重要的现实意义。本文共分为六个部分,分别对民间金融风险预警相关问题进行了论述。第一部分首先阐述了国内外学者在民间金融风险领域的研究成果；第二部分则在综合比较该领域的研究现状和研究成果的基础上,界定了民间金融的内涵,并由此对我国民间金融风险进行界定,并分析我国民间金融风险的特性；第三部分分析我国民间金融风险的来源,阐述我国民间金融风险的特性和生成机理,分别阐述了我国民间金融风险的内生机理和外生机理；第四部分结合民间金融风险预警指标体系的选取原则,确立了本文选取的民间金融风险预警指标体系。通过因子分析法和KLR信号法对选取指标的现实性和合理性进行了实证检验,得出的结论是：本文选取的民间金融风险的预警指标体系具有一定的现实意义,能够较好的解释我国的民间金融风险的产生原因和拟合民间金融风险的变化趋势。第五部分,通过对民间金融风险的分析,结合我国民间金融的实际情况,提出了民间金融风险的管控措施,健全我国民间金融风险监管的法律法规,完善我国民间金融风险的监管体系,让民间金融从“灰色地带”逐步“阳光化”。最后,在第六部分中总结了本文的研究结论,并提出了研究存在的不足和对未来研究的展望。
[Abstract]:Private finance is a financial form relative to the formal and official finance. It has a history of more than two thousand years in our country. It has developed on the basis of folk credit. It is financing and improving the efficiency of capital utilization. To solve the problem of financing difficulties of SMEs has become a beneficial supplement to the formal finance and promoted the economic development of our country. However, the regional private lending crisis in recent years shows that private finance is a double-edged sword, which not only promotes economic development, but also weakens the government's macro-control, which has latent financial risks that can not be ignored. Therefore, controlling the private financial risk is the basis to give full play to its efficacy and overcome its disadvantages, to do a good job of monitoring and early warning of the private financial risk, and to establish a relatively perfect early warning index system of private financial risk. It will help to prevent the regional private financial risk from turning into crisis, and has important practical significance to promote the healthy and stable development of our country's economy and finance. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part describes the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of private financial risk. The second part defines the connotation of folk finance on the basis of comprehensive comparison of the current research situation and research results in this field. The third part analyzes the sources of the private financial risks in our country, expounds the characteristics and generation mechanism of the private financial risks in China, and analyzes the characteristics of the private financial risks in China, and analyzes the characteristics and characteristics of the private financial risks in China. The fourth part combines with the selection principle of the early warning index system of the folk financial risk, and establishes the index system of the folk financial risk early warning selected in this paper. Through factor analysis and KLR signal method, the paper makes an empirical test on the feasibility and rationality of selecting indicators. The conclusion is that the early warning index system of folk financial risks selected in this paper has certain practical significance. It can explain the causes of the private financial risks and fit the changing trend of the private financial risks. The fifth part, through the analysis of the private financial risk, combined with the actual situation of the folk finance in our country, put forward the control measures of the private financial risk, and perfect the laws and regulations of the supervision of the private financial risk in our country. Improve the supervision system of the private financial risk, and gradually "sunshine" from the "grey zone" to the private finance. Finally, in the sixth part, the conclusion of this paper is summarized, and the deficiency of the research and the prospect of future research are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.39

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