中国商业银行利率市场化研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 22:09

本文选题：利率市场化 + 金融发展　；参考：《武汉大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国坚持市场化基本取向,不断深化金融体制改革。稳步推进利率市场化改革是深化我国经济金融改革的重点工作,已列入“十二五规划纲要”。自1996年起,人民银行从同业拆借市场着手,开始探索中国利率市场化改革,主要思路是“先外币,后本币；先贷款,后存款；先长期、大额,后短期、小额”。2012年人民币存贷款利率市场化又迈出重要一步,上下限区间放宽。预计“十二五”期间,利率市场化改革将有明显进展。研究利率市场化对于辨析中国经济转型中的问题、避免陷入滞涨泥潭、提升经济发展层次具有重要的现实意义；对于辨析政府在经济中应该扮演的角色具有重要的理论意义。本文将以金融发展理论为基础,分析国内外利率市场化改革进程及经验,发掘利率市场化改革的条件和影响指标,分析中国商业银行受到的影响,并对改革后新的利率运作机制作出展望。全文共分为五章,各章主要内容如下：第一章为绪论。首先论述本文的选题背景和意义,然后对有关的研究文献进行系统梳理并简要评述,接下来介绍本文的研究思路和所使用的研究方法,最后提出文章的主要创新点和不足之处。第二章分析利率市场化的必要性。首先深入阐述了利率的内涵和利率市场的内涵。然后,本章从实践角度分析了利率市场化是适应经济体制不断发展的需要、是培养金融机构自主定价能力的需要、是尊重企业和居民权利以及推动金融服务能力提高的需要、是进一步提高宏观调控能力的需要。同时,在金融约束模型基础上,结合中国分割经济的特点,提出了中国利率市场化模型。模型显示利率市场化之后,如果分割的市场融合为统一的市场,则新的收入资本比将可能高于利率市场化之前,从而促使经济发展速度提升到更高层次,但效率的提高并不是必然结果,这表示了利率市场化蕴含的风险。最后,对中国经济体制改革进程和利率市场化进程进行了回顾,提出了未来中国利率市场化需要面对和解决的问题。第三章进行了国际比较研究。首先对美国、日本等发达国家和俄罗斯、印度等新兴市场国家利率市场的背景、动因、过程、特点和影响进了深入细致的研究。然后分析总结了利率市场化成功的“五个条件”和对中国的启示。第四章进一步论述了中国利率市场化的路径选择问题。首先指出中国利率市场化应选择一条渐进式、双轨制的路径。然后,深入分析了渐进式、双轨制的内涵,提出了利率市场化进程应关注的“四个能力”。最后,为提高利率市场化进程决策的科学性,本章用模糊数学的方法,结合专家打分法,建立了利率市场化进程决策的指标体系。第五章从中国商业银行的视角,分析了利率市场化的影响及应对策略。首先从利差收窄、利率风险管理、逆向选择和道德风险角度分析了影响,并通过银行竞争行为模型,结合中国实际存贷款数据进行了实证检验。其次,分析了中国商业银行定价机制的现状和与国际先进银行的能力差距。然后,提出了利率完全放开并不是中国利率市场化的终点,新的利率运行机制的建立是阶段性终点。新机制是基于新资本协议,境内外联动的,以质量和效益为核心的利率运行机制。这种机制中银行是运行的中心,银行将以风险调整后的资本回报率为主线,进行资源配置和构建业务发展战略。最后展望了利率市场化运行机制将是一个面对不断变化的监管环境不断完善的过程,建议商业银行要不断提高风险定价能力和自律水平,以资本集约分配为基础,优化资源配置。通过以上研究,本文归纳总结出中国利率市场化改革是经济转型的必由之路,但是改革也蕴含着较大风险。改革进程要注意培养“四个能力”(银行的管理能力、企业的适应能力、政府的调控能力和市场的适应能力),要满足“五个条件”(宏观经济稳定、健全的金融监管体制、科学的银行管理机制、完善的存款保险制度、现代化的市场经济体系),并应该建立利率市场进程的决策模型,提高决策的科学性。中国商业银行的利率定价能力仍有待提高。利率市场化之后,中国应该建立基于新资本协议的新型管制体系,以一种市场化的资本管制方式代替行政性的利率管制方式,促使银行以资本集约分配为基础,优化银行资源配置。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has adhered to the basic orientation of the market and deepened the reform of the financial system. The steady promotion of the reform of the interest rate marketization is the key work of deepening the economic and financial reform in China. It has been included in the "12th Five-Year plan outline". Since 1996, the people's Bank has begun to explore the reform of China's interest rate marketization from the interbank market. The main idea is "foreign currency, post currency, first loan, post deposit, long-term, large, short term, short term, small, small".2012 RMB deposit and loan interest rate marketization is also an important step, the upper and lower limits are relaxed. It is expected that during the "12th Five-Year", interest rate marketization will have obvious progress. It is of great practical significance to avoid stagflation mire and improve the economic development level. It is of great theoretical significance to distinguish and analyze the role that the government should play in the economy. Based on the theory of financial development, this paper will analyze the process and experience of the reform of interest rate marketization at home and abroad, and explore the reform of interest rate marketization. The paper analyzes the impact of China's commercial banks and looks forward to the new mechanism of interest rate operation after the reform. The full text is divided into five chapters. The main contents of each chapter are as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction. First, it discusses the background and significance of this topic, then systematically combs and reviews the relevant literature, and then introduces the research ideas and methods used in this paper, and finally puts forward the main innovation and shortcomings of the article.
The second chapter analyzes the necessity of the interest rate marketization. First, it expounds the connotation of interest rate and the connotation of the interest rate market. Then, this chapter analyses that the interest rate marketization is the need to adapt to the continuous development of the economic system from the practical point of view. It is the need to train the independent pricing ability of financial institutions, is to respect the rights of enterprises and residents and to promote financial suits. At the same time, on the basis of the financial constraint model, the Chinese interest rate marketization model is put forward on the basis of the financial constraint model and the characteristics of China's divided economy. The model shows that the new income capital ratio will be higher than that of the unified market after the market integration of the interest rate. Before the interest rate is marketed, the speed of economic development is promoted to a higher level, but the improvement of efficiency is not the inevitable result, which indicates the risk of interest rate marketization. Finally, it reviews the process of China's economic system reform and the process of interest rate marketization, and puts forward that the future China interest rate marketization needs to be faced and solved. Problem.
In the third chapter, the international comparative study is carried out. First, the background, motivation, process, characteristics and effects of interest rate market in the developed countries such as the United States, Japan and other developed countries, such as Russia, India and other emerging market countries are carefully studied. Then, the "five conditions" for the success of the interest rate market and the enlightenment to China are analyzed and summarized.
The fourth chapter further discusses the path selection of China's interest rate marketization. First, it points out that China's interest rate marketization should choose a gradual and double track system. Then, the connotation of the gradual and double track system is deeply analyzed, and the "four abilities" should be paid attention to in the process of interest rate marketization. Finally, in order to improve the process of interest rate marketization, the process of interest rate will be improved. In this chapter, we use fuzzy mathematics and expert scoring to set up an index system for the decision making process of interest rate marketization.
The fifth chapter analyzes the influence and coping strategies of interest rate marketization from the perspective of Chinese commercial banks. First, the influence is analyzed from the angle of interest gap narrowing, interest rate risk management, adverse selection and moral hazard, and the empirical test is carried out through the model of bank competition behavior and the actual number of Chinese deposits and loans. Secondly, the Chinese commercial silver is analyzed. The current situation of line pricing mechanism and the gap with the international advanced banks. Then, it is proposed that the complete liberalization of interest rate is not the end point of China's interest rate marketization. The establishment of the new interest rate operation mechanism is a stage end point. The new mechanism is based on the new capital agreement, the linkage of the domestic and foreign countries, the interest rate operation mechanism with the core of quality and benefit. In the mechanism, the bank is the center of operation. The bank will take the capital return rate after the risk adjusted as the main line, carry out the allocation of resources and build the business development strategy. Finally, it looks forward that the mechanism of interest rate marketization will be a process of continuous improvement in the face of changing regulatory environment. The level of self-discipline is based on capital intensive allocation and the allocation of resources is optimized.
Through the above research, this paper concludes that the reform of China's interest rate marketization is the only way of economic transformation, but the reform also contains great risks. The reform process should pay attention to the cultivation of "four abilities" (the management ability of the banks, the adaptability of the enterprises, the government's ability to adjust and control and the adaptability of the market), and to meet the "five conditions". (macro economic stability, sound financial supervision system, scientific bank management mechanism, perfect deposit insurance system, modern market economy system), and should establish the decision-making model of the interest rate market process to improve the scientific decision. The interest rate pricing ability of the Chinese commercial bank remains to be improved. After the interest rate marketization, China should A new control system based on the new capital agreement is set up to replace the administrative mode of interest rate control by a market-oriented capital control mode, and promote the bank to optimize the allocation of bank resources on the basis of the intensive allocation of capital.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.33;F822.0

【参考文献】