资本开放的经济影响与政策选择：国际经验及对中国的启示

发布时间：2018-04-24 19:27

本文选题：资本开放 + 资本管制　；参考：《南开大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：上世纪80年代后,一些新兴市场国家为了促进本国经济的发展,弥补国内资本的不足,开始了资本开放的进程。但在90年代中期以后,拉美地区和亚洲地区新兴市场国家先后发生了金融危机,过快资本开放的新兴市场国家在危机中受到重创。近5年,美欧等国更是频繁出现经济危机,很多新兴市场国家重新实行了不同程度的资本管制。与此同时,资本自由流动是经济全球化的必然趋势,中国企业伴随着经济实力的增强国际化趋势显现。因此,为了避免重蹈一些新兴市场国家的覆辙并且在经济全球化化的浪潮中维持国内经济持久稳定的发展,中国是否应该资本开放、如何进行资本开放就成为了我们所面临的极为紧迫的问题。本文的研究目的在于对资本开放的经济影响以及资本管制政策的方式与效果进行分析,并通过理论和实证两方面的研究,结合当前我国内外经济环境为中国的资本管制政策和措施提供一些建议。本文以资本开放与经济增长的关系为切入点,来探讨是否资本开放能带来经济的增长；其次,通过三个市场(即货币市场、资本市场、商品市场)的价格表现,从更微观的视角研究了资本在不同市场和不同部门间的流动与配置；然后,通过研究资本开放对外债和外汇的影响,从宏观稳定视角分析了资本开放与货币危机、债务危机和全要素生产率的关系；接着,总结了资本自由派与资本管制派的争论以及资本管制的不同方向、不同手段、不同方式；最后,介绍了中国资本管制现状并分析其有效性,并结合国内外经济环境对中国资本开放的条件与步骤提出了相应的政策建议。本文的创新主要体现在如下的两个研究过程中。首先,在研究是否要资本开放的过程中,本文通过拓展新古典增长模型并结合实证检验,发现较高的资本开放度并不能带来较快的经济增长率,解释经济增长率高低的因素是资本开放度变动的大小,而非资本开放度水平的高低。另外,本文构建了国家内部出现经济分割的小型开放经济模型,以考察资本开放对经济分割国家的经济影响,证明了资本开放在长期可以消除这种结构的扭曲对于经济增长的制约,并且通过比较不同国别的资本开放度、城乡分化、经济增长对其进行验证,发现资本开放使城乡分化较大的国家经济增长幅度更大。最后,从资本流动视角通过对一些假说的实证检验,研究了资本开放与货币市场和资本市场的价格的关系,发现对于新兴市场国家,资本开放导致本国货币贬值,并且降低了国内实际利率,此外,提出了资本流动在商品市场中对价格影响的三个渠道,不同的流动渠道对价格的影响各异。其次,在研究如何实现资本开放的过程中,本文通过分组实证研究发现如果在资本开放带来了全要素生产率得到提高,那么开放国就不易发生货币危机和债务危机；反之,其发生货币危机和债务危机的概率就会增加。另外,通过一些国际案例介绍了不同的管制方向、管制手段和管制方式的含义与效果,本文发现：资本流入管制与资本流出管制是相辅相成的,放弃其中一种手段后另一种管制也会失效；价格管制对市场的干扰相对较小,但在管制效率上却远不如总量管制；长期管制需要投入较大的行政成本,但是间断管制容易被市场规避造成管制无效。接着,通过建立经济分割的财富累积模型,发现经济分割程度较大的国家在资本开放后,宏观政策的制定与实施的难度都会加大,并且资本开放明显降低了宏观政策效率。中国以前保持着较高的资本管制,因此资本开放对中国而言是一个崭新的挑战。我国作为新兴经济国家,正处于经济结构改革的关键时刻,经济增速放缓,必要时可以通过资本开放刺激经济的增长,但要多方面利用资本开放的契机,加快经济结构调整步伐,使经济发展长久受益。另外,中国经济结构相对其他新兴市场国家更为复杂,地区差异、城乡差异等经济分割现象是我国面临的严峻的问题。资本开放在长期有助于消除这种结构性扭曲,但短期内带来的宏观政策挑战比较大,因此,我国在资本开放的同时要大力缩减地区间、行业间的差异。最后,我国要通过调整贸易结构并加强对跨国企业的财务审计,避免外部失衡的加大以及资本管制政策的失效,并且在提高货币冲销的效率、加大金融机构抗风险能力、改革汇率和利率形成机制的同时,通过工资与物价的调整促进产业结构的升级以消除扭曲。
[Abstract]:After the 80s of last century, some emerging market countries began the process of capital opening up to make up the shortage of domestic capital in order to promote the development of their own economy. But after the mid 90s, the financial crisis occurred in Latin America and the emerging market countries in Asia. In the past 5 years, the economic crisis has occurred frequently in the United States, Europe and the United States. Many emerging market countries have reintroduced different levels of capital control. At the same time, the free flow of capital is the inevitable trend of economic globalization. Chinese enterprises are accompanied by the trend of increasing the economic strength and internationalization. Therefore, in order to avoid the repeat of some emerging market countries. Whether China should be open to capital and how to open its capital has become a very urgent problem for us to face in the course of the situation of the family and the sustained and stable development of the domestic economy in the tide of economic globalization.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic impact of capital opening and the way and effect of capital control policy. Through two aspects of theoretical and empirical research, it provides some suggestions for China's capital control policies and measures in combination with the current domestic and foreign economic environment. This paper is based on the relationship between capital opening and economic growth. The entry point is to explore whether capital opening can bring economic growth; secondly, through a more microcosmic perspective, the flow and allocation of capital between different markets and different sectors is studied through the three markets (i.e., the currency market, capital market, commodity market); and then, through the study of the influence of capital opening on foreign debt and foreign exchange, The relationship between capital opening and currency crisis, debt crisis and total factor productivity is analyzed from the perspective of macro stability. Then, the debate between capital liberals and capital controls and the different directions, different means and different ways of capital control are summarized. Finally, the current situation of capital control in China is introduced and its effectiveness is analyzed and the country is combined with the country. The internal and external economic environment puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the conditions and steps of China's capital liberalization.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following two research processes.
First, in the study of the process of capital opening, this paper, through the expansion of the new classical growth model and combined with empirical test, found that the higher capital openness does not bring a faster economic growth rate. The factor of explaining the economic growth rate is the small change of capital openness, not the level of capital openness. This paper constructs a small open economy model of economic division in the country, in order to investigate the economic impact of capital opening on the economic division of the country. It proves that the opening of capital can eliminate the constraint of the distortion of this structure to economic growth for a long time, and by comparing different countries' capital openness, urban-rural differentiation and economic growth In the end, from the perspective of capital flow, the relationship between capital opening and the price of money market and capital market is studied from the perspective of capital flow, and it is found that for emerging market countries, the opening of capital leads to the devaluation of the country's currency and the reduction of its currency. Lower the domestic real interest rate. In addition, three channels of capital flow affecting commodity prices in the commodity market are put forward. Different mobile channels have different effects on prices.
Secondly, in the study of how to realize capital opening, this paper shows that if the total factor productivity is raised in the opening of capital, the currency crisis and debt crisis will not occur in the open country. On the other hand, the probability of the currency and debt crisis will increase. The case introduces the meaning and effect of different control directions, control means and control methods. It is found that capital inflow control and capital outflow control are complementary, and another kind of control will fail after giving up one of them, and the price control is less interference to the market, but it is far less than the total amount of control efficiency. Regulation requires a large amount of administrative cost for long-term control, but discontinuous control is easily avoided by market avoidance. Then, through the establishment of an accumulated wealth accumulation model of economic division, it is found that after the opening of capital, the difficulty of macro policy formulation and implementation will increase and the capital is open. The efficiency of macro policy has been significantly reduced.
China has maintained a high capital control in the past, so the opening of capital is a new challenge for China. As a emerging economic country, China is at a critical time for economic restructuring, slowing economic growth, and stimulating the growth of the economy through capital opening up, but the opportunity to make use of capital opening up is accelerated in many ways. The pace of economic restructuring has benefited the economic development for a long time. In addition, China's economic structure is more complex than other emerging market countries, regional differences, and urban and rural differences are the serious problems facing China. In the long run, the opening of capital will help to eliminate this structural distortion, but the macro policy challenges brought in the short term At the same time, our country should reduce the difference between regions and industries. Finally, our country should adjust the trade structure and strengthen the financial audit of the transnational enterprises, avoid the increase of external imbalances and the failure of the capital control policy, and improve the efficiency of the currency cancellation and increase the risk resistance of the financial institutions. Efforts should be made to reform the formation mechanism of exchange rate and interest rate, and promote the upgrading of industrial structure through the adjustment of wages and prices, so as to eliminate distortions.

【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.5;F832.5;F124

【参考文献】