中国货币化进程的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-25 09:35

本文选题：货币化 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《吉林大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：货币化的概念经常被提及，但是学术界至今并未给出明确定义。自货币体系脱离金本位后，金融资产价格迅速上涨，已接近上百倍，但这是名义的、货币的，并不代表真实资本的情况。全球经济在经历着依靠不断增加货币来保证增长，这里便是一个货币化的过程。从中国的角度看，货币化指标M0GDP、 M2GDP、 M2GDP一直在快速上涨，尤其是，在改革开放初期仅为0.3，2010年已超过1.8，至今未出现回落的趋势。如此长时期的货币总量超过产出总量的增长情形国际上少见，在中国经济发展史上也未曾有过。上世纪90年代，中国高货币化率的问题曾经引发热议。Mckinnon (1993)曾经预言如果中国政府继续依赖于国有银行体系的贷款，东欧型的通货膨胀将无法避免；世界银行(1996)的分析则表明，中国在改革初期通过企业和居民在银行留存的大量储蓄存款所形成的金融剩余，在实现经济高速增长的同时避免了通货膨胀。可是，随着中国的货币余额越来越多，高增长低通胀的情形将很难一直保持下去。尽管如此，中国的货币化率至今没有减速的迹象，并且仍然没有引发明显的通货膨胀，甚至在1997-2006年大约十年期间里，出现通货膨胀率均值接近于1%的低通胀情形。可见Mckinnon于1993年提出的“中国之谜”现象仍在延续。在中国经济高速货币化的同时，中国的金融资产经历了迅速扩张的过程，同时还伴随着资产价格的剧烈波动。传统理论认为，资产价格通过财富效应、托宾q效应以及价格预期效应引起物价上涨，但是越来越多的数据表明，资产价格的上涨常常与价格稳定或是价格下降相伴随，尤其是近年来，我国物价和资产价格表现出明显的此消彼长的现象，这与传统理论是相悖的。以上事实说明，在我国经济发展过程的货币化进程表现出明显的复杂性，货币供给、物价和资产价格之间的关系模糊不清。不但增加了经济的运行风险，也对货币政策调控提出了挑战。基于上述认识，本文对货币化的相关理论与概念重新进行梳理，并对中国的货币化进程进行了实证检验。具体内容包括：(1)依据货币化的测度体系对货币化的广度和深度进行了理论分析与实证检验，并探讨了体制改革对货币化进程的促进作用；(2)将要素货币化纳入对中国经济货币化进程的考察范围，实证检验货币化进程非均衡的表现以及对通货膨胀的影响；(3)对促进货币化进程以及导致货币化进程非均衡的外部影响因素进行实证分析。通过实证分析，得到如下结论： 1.我国货币深化在稳步推进。货币化指数的不同增长速度以及货币深化指数波动的主要原因是公众货币需求结构的调整。低层次的货币对价格的影响较强，高层次货币对价格影响较弱，随着货币的深化，货币与价格的关系将逐渐弱化。 2.我国要素货币化进程吸收大量超额货币。生产要素由不进入市场交易到进入市场交易，以及进一步到金融市场的交易过程，产生了大量的货币需求。另外，金融抑制导致我国经济货币化与金融化之间主要表现为互补效应。金融化率的增长可以促进货币化率的增长，在我国这一关系尤为明显，这也是我国货币化率M2GDP持续走高的原因之一。 3.我国货币化进程于2008年出现结构突变。2008年前后产品货币化进程出现明显的增速，要素货币化进程出现明显的减速。这意味着我国货币化进程的非均衡程度出现了调整，货币在实体经济和金融市场中的配置发生了改变，由此导致我国货币供给引发价格上涨的直接效应逐渐减弱。 4.货币化进程的非均衡对通货膨胀具有显著的影响。市场机制不畅通导致货币在经济中的配置出现明显的阻滞，使得货币不能在实体经济和金融市场之间得到最优配置，这是货币化非均衡形成的原因。从货币化非均衡的角度讲，通货膨胀的产生是公众放弃货币资产和金融资产，转而持有实物资产，导致实物资产需求增加的结果。 5.汇率和汇率预期对货币化速度和货币化进程的非均衡均有显著影响。人民币币值的低估和人民币的升值预期会加剧经常账户和资本账户的不平衡程度，不但引起外汇储备的快速增涨还大幅度的增加了货币需求，，因此促进了货币化速度的快速提升。由于汇率与价格和资产价格的联动机制具有不确定性，在经济高速货币化的同时，也对货币化的均衡程度产生显著影响。 6.金融控制对我国的高货币化率和货币化进程的非均衡的形成起到至关重要的作用。利率管制和汇率管制扭曲了货币政策的传导机制，对金融自由化的控制抑制了金融市场功能的发挥，使得投资和融资过程过分依赖于银行，这些金融控制政策使得货币不能得到有效配置。因而，利率和汇率的市场化改革、促进金融自由化是缓解我国高货币化问题和货币化进程非均衡问题的关键所在。本文的研究与以往以货币化为主题的相关研究最大的不同之处在于以货币化进程非均衡为视角考察了我国的货币化进程，检验了货币化进程非均衡的形成机制以及货币化进程非均衡对通货膨胀的影响机制。本文研究的结果对于建立货币与通胀风险关联机制和推动全球流动性管理具有积极意义。
[Abstract]:The concept of monetization is often mentioned, but the academic world has not yet given a clear definition. Since the monetary system has gone away from the gold standard, the price of financial assets has risen rapidly, nearly a hundred times, but this is nominal, money does not represent real capital. The global economy is going through increasing money to ensure growth, It is a process of monetization.
From the point of view of China, monetization indicators M0GDP, M2GDP, M2GDP have been rising rapidly, especially in the early period of reform and opening up only 0.32010 years have exceeded 1.8, so far there has not been a downward trend. So long the total amount of money exceeds the total output of the situation is rarely seen in the history of China's economic development has not been in the past. In 90s, the question of the high monetization rate in China had triggered a hot debate.Mckinnon (1993) once predicted that if the Chinese government continued to rely on loans from the state-owned banking system, the Eastern European type of inflation would not be avoided; the analysis of the World Bank (1996) showed that China retained a large amount of storage in the bank by enterprises and residents at the beginning of the reform. The financial surplus formed by deposit savings has avoided inflation while achieving high economic growth. However, as China's monetary balance is increasing, it will be difficult to maintain high growth and low inflation. However, China's monetization rate has not slowed down, and it still does not cause obvious inflation. Inflation, even during the 1997-2006 - year period of about ten years, has a low inflation rate that is close to 1% of the inflation rate. It is clear that the "Chinese mystery", proposed by Mckinnon in 1993, is still continuing.
At the same time of high speed monetization of China's economy, China's financial assets have experienced a process of rapid expansion and accompanied by violent fluctuations in asset prices. The traditional theory holds that the asset price has passed the wealth effect, the Tobin q effect and the price expectation effect caused the price rise, but more and more data show that the price of assets is rising. It is often accompanied by price stability or price decline, especially in recent years, the price and asset price of our country has shown an obvious phenomenon, which is contrary to the traditional theory. The above facts show that the Monetization Process in the process of economic development in our country shows obvious complexity, money supply, price and asset prices. The relationship is blurred. It not only increases the operational risk of the economy, but also challenges the adjustment and control of monetary policy.
Based on the above understanding, this article reviews the related theories and concepts of monetization, and carries out an empirical test on the process of monetization in China. The specific contents include: (1) theoretical analysis and empirical test are carried out on the breadth and depth of monetization according to the measurement system of monetization, and the process of monetization on the process of monetization is discussed. Promoting effect; (2) integrating the monetization of elements into the scope of China's economic monetization, empirically testing the imbalanced performance of Monetization Process and the impact on inflation; (3) the empirical analysis of the external factors affecting the process of monetization and the disequilibrium of the process of monetization.
Through the empirical analysis, we get the following conclusions:
1. the monetary deepening of our country is steadily advancing. The main reason for the different growth rate of the monetization index and the fluctuation of the currency deepening index is the adjustment of the structure of the demand of the public money. The lower level of money has a strong influence on the price. The influence of the high level currency on the price is weak. With the deepening of the currency, the relationship between money and price will gradually weaken.
2. China's factor Monetization Process absorbs a large amount of excess money. The factors of production have produced a large amount of money demand from non entry into market transaction to market transaction and further to the financial market. In addition, financial inhibition leads to the complementation effect between economic monetization and finance in China. Length can promote the growth of monetization rate, especially in China. This is also one of the reasons why China's monetization rate M2GDP continues to rise.
3. the process of monetization in China appeared in 2008. The process of monetization of products appeared obvious growth in 2008. The process of monetization of elements has been decelerated obviously. This means that the non equilibrium degree of the process of monetization in China has been adjusted, and the allocation of money in the real economy and the financial market has changed, which led to me. The direct effect of rising money supply on prices has gradually weakened.
4. the disequilibrium of the process of monetization has a significant impact on inflation. The unimpeded market mechanism leads to a clear blockage in the allocation of money in the economy, which makes it impossible to get the optimal allocation between the real economy and the financial market. This is the original cause of the formation of the imbalanced monetization. Inflation results from the fact that the public abandonment of monetary assets and financial assets, instead of holding physical assets, result in an increase in demand for physical assets.
5. exchange rate and exchange rate expectations have significant impact on the imbalances of monetization speed and the process of monetization. The undervaluation of the value of the RMB and the appreciation of the RMB will increase the imbalance between the current account and the capital account, which not only causes the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves but also increases the demand for money, thus promoting the speed of monetization. Due to the uncertainty of the linkage mechanism of exchange rate and price and asset price, it also has a significant impact on the balance of monetization at the same time of high speed monetization of economy.
6. financial control plays a vital role in the formation of the high monetization rate and the imbalanced formation of the Monetization Process in China. Interest rate control and exchange rate control distort the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The control of financial liberalization inhibits the function of the financial market and makes the investment and financing process excessively dependent on the banks. The control policy makes the currency cannot be effectively configured. Therefore, the market-oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate and the promotion of financial liberalization are the key to alleviating the problem of high monetization and imbalanced monetization in China.
The biggest difference between this study and the previous research on monetization is that the monetization process is examined in the perspective of the imbalanced Monetization Process, the formation mechanism of the imbalanced Monetization Process and the influence mechanism of the imbalanced Monetization Process on the inflation are examined. Currency and inflation risk linkage mechanism and promoting global liquidity management is of positive significance.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F822.2

【引证文献】