20世纪中后期美联储货币政策走向研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 11:40

本文选题：美联储 + 货币政策　；参考：《鲁东大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：第二次世界大战结束以后，美联储放弃了将利率钉在较低水平的做法，逐步调整其货币政策的目标和手段。在与财政部签订1951年协议以后，特别是自威廉·马丁担任美联储主席开始，美联储掌握了货币政策的自主决策权，开始独立运用货币政策调控美国的宏观经济。在20世纪50年代初到60年代末这段时期，美联储实行了根据经济发展的状况调整货币供应量的货币政策。鉴于美国经济在1945年到1969年处于整体上升的发展阶段，因而这一时期美联储的货币政策基本以宽松的货币供应为主。但是，随着美国经济的逐步升温，美国社会的通货膨胀率开始升高，同时美国劳动力市场的失业率又居高不下。如何使经济发展摆脱“滞胀”困境成为美联储面对的难题,因为美联储已经意识到要降低通货膨胀需要以美国经济的降温为代价，但经济的衰退会招致政府和民众的不满。因而在20世纪70年代大部分的时间里，执掌美联储的阿瑟·伯恩斯选择了容忍高通货膨胀的做法。美联储继续实行宽松货币政策的做法引起了学术界的争论，货币主义者在这时提出了反通货膨胀的观点，并被1979年上任的美联储主席保罗·沃尔克所采用。在以牺牲经济增长为代价的反通货膨胀斗争结束后，沃尔克带领下的美联储成功地将美国经济从“滞胀”泥潭中拉了出来。鉴于货币供应量的过快增长导致高通货膨胀，，美联储逐渐放弃货币总量为政策指标，转而使用利率作为货币政策的指标，同时慎重对待通货膨胀的变化，努力将通货膨胀率维持在一个适当的水平，以避免经济发展过热或者适当降低经济发展速度。简言之,美联储的货币政策在二战后经历了几个阶段的变动，尽管每个阶段政策的实施效果并不总是尽如人意，但总体而言还是取得了一定的效果。美联储作为调控美国宏观经济的重要参与者，其职能已经不再局限于为银行业提供贷款支持,而是成为引导美国社会经济发展的重要力量。与此同时,学术界对于美联储货币政策的研究成果也越来越丰富,最为典型的要属货币主义学派的兴起。美联储对货币政策多次调整的结果提示我们，货币政策的研究者和决策者要重视货币政策对于社会经济的作用,认真对待货币政策的制定和实施。
[Abstract]:After the end of World War II, the Fed abandoned the practice of pegging interest rates to lower levels and gradually adjusted its monetary policy objectives and instruments. After signing the 1951 agreement with the Treasury, especially since William Martin became chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Fed has taken control of monetary policy and started to use monetary policy independently to regulate the U.S. macro economy. During the period from the early 1950s to the late 1960s, the Federal Reserve adopted a monetary policy to adjust the money supply to the state of economic development. In view of the fact that the United States economy was in an overall rising stage of development from 1945 to 1969, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy during this period was dominated by loose money supply. But as the U.S. economy warmed up, inflation began to rise and unemployment in the U.S. labor market remained high. How to get the economy out of stagflation has become a challenge for the Fed, which has come to realize that lowering inflation costs a cooling economy, but a recession could lead to government and public discontent. So for much of the 1970s, Arthur Burns, who ran the Fed, chose to tolerate high inflation. The Fed's continued practice of loose monetary policy has sparked debate in academia, when monetarists put forward anti-inflation views and were adopted by Paul Volcker, Fed chairman, who took office in 1979. The Fed, led by Volcker, managed to pull the U.S. economy out of its "stagflation" quagmire after the end of a war against inflation at the expense of growth. In view of the high inflation caused by the excessive growth of the money supply, the Federal Reserve gradually abandoned the total amount of money as a policy indicator and instead used interest rates as an indicator of monetary policy, while taking a cautious view of the changes in inflation. Try to keep the inflation rate at an appropriate level to avoid overheating or slow down the economy. In short, the Fed's monetary policy has undergone several phases of change since the second world war, and while the effect of each phase has not always been satisfactory, overall it has achieved some results. As an important participant in the regulation of the U.S. macroeconomic, the Federal Reserve is no longer limited to providing loan support to the banking sector, but has become an important force to guide the development of the U.S. social economy. At the same time, the academic research on the Federal Reserve monetary policy has become more and more abundant, the most typical of which is the rise of monetarist school. The results of the Federal Reserve's repeated adjustment of monetary policy suggest that monetary policy researchers and policy makers should attach importance to the role of monetary policy in the social economy and take the formulation and implementation of monetary policy seriously.
【学位授予单位】：鲁东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F827.12;K712.54

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